The Party's Report to the 20th CPC National Congress proposed to organically combine the implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand with deepening the structural reform on the supply side.
Liu He said that this is a major strategic move put forward by the CPC Central Committee according to the changes in the development environment at home and abroad and the Communist Party of China (CPC)'s mission and task in the new era and new journey, and it is of great significance for effectively giving play to the economic advantages of big countries, accelerating the construction of a new development pattern, promoting high-quality development and building a socialist modern country in an all-round way in the coming period.
Around the historical logic and background, major principles and requirements, and major tasks of this decision, Liu He wrote a full explanation. This is a long-term strategy to actively respond to environmental changes at home and abroad and enhance development initiative in the face of the new situation that international demand may fluctuate and shrink further, the original supply and demand cycle of the global economy is disturbed or even blocked, domestic traditional advantages are weakened, and the ability of scientific and technological innovation is not strong.
Around this decision, Liu He pointed out seven main tasks in the next five years, including promoting domestic and international dual-cycle mutual promotion, maintaining macroeconomic stability, enhancing the vitality of micro-subjects, improving total factor productivity, improving the toughness and safety level of industrial chain supply chain, promoting urban-rural integration and regional coordinated development, and preventing and resolving systemic risks.
Long-term strategy to cope with environmental changes at home and abroad and enhance development initiative
Faced with the Asian financial crisis of 1998, the international financial crisis of 2008 and the impact of epidemic since 2020, China has effectively offset the negative impact by expanding domestic demand and promoted stable economic growth. Practice has proved that implementing the strategy of expanding domestic demand is an effective way to deal with external shocks and stabilize economic operation.
Since 20 15, in order to cope with the complex situation of "three phases superposition", China has launched a supply-side structural reform with the key task of "three to one, one reduction and one supplement". In 20 18, China further proposed to deepen the supply-side structural reform, focus on enhancing the vitality of micro-subjects, improve the level of industrial chain, and promote the adjustment and optimization of the relationship between finance and real economy, and between real estate and real economy. The supply-side structural reform has promoted the improvement of the quality and efficiency of China's supply system and is the fundamental way to achieve high-quality development.
"Combining the implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand with deepening structural reform on the supply side is a long-term strategy to actively respond to environmental changes at home and abroad and enhance development initiative," Liu He said.
Liu He analyzed the current situation at home and abroad. At present, the unprecedented changes in the world are accelerating, the epidemic situation in the century has a far-reaching impact, the recovery of the world economy is weak, the inflation level remains high, the major developed economies have greatly adjusted their macro policies, and international demand may further fluctuate and contract. The global industrial division of labor system and regional layout are undergoing extensive and profound adjustment, the stability of energy resources supply is declining, and the original supply and demand cycle of the global economy is disturbed or even blocked. In particular, some countries, regardless of the norms of international relations and economic and trade rules, tried to exert extreme pressure by decoupling and cracking down on enterprises, which hindered China's economic development and structural upgrading and had a great impact on the global total supply and demand balance. Domestically, China's economy has recently faced triple pressures of shrinking demand, supply shocks and weak expectations. Risk factors in some areas are rising, population aging is accelerating, traditional advantages such as labor and land are weakening, resource and environment constraints are tightening, scientific and technological innovation ability is not strong, and the improvement of total factor productivity is restricted. It is urgent to exert strength from both ends of supply and demand, which not only expands effective demand, but also promotes the transformation and adjustment of production function and shapes new competitive advantages.
In view of this new situation, since 2020, the CPC Central Committee has proposed to speed up the construction of a new development pattern with the domestic big cycle as the main body and the domestic and international double cycles promoting each other. Liu He said that this requires us to expand domestic demand and optimize supply as a whole, give full play to the advantages of super-large-scale market, improve the adaptability of supply system to domestic demand, break through the blocking point of economic cycle, promote the benign interaction between supply and demand, and inject new impetus into the world economy while realizing its own high-quality development (3 10328).
Report to the 20th CPC National Congress of the Party pointed out that in the future, the central task of China's * * * Production Party is to unite and lead the people of all ethnic groups to build a socialist modernization power in an all-round way, realize the goal of the second century, and comprehensively promote the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation through China's modernization.
Liu He said: We should firmly grasp development as the top priority of the Party in governing and rejuvenating the country, comprehensively, accurately and comprehensively implement the new development concept, give full play to the advantages of super-large-scale market, implement the strategy of expanding domestic demand, deepen the structural reform on the supply side, promote the effective improvement of economic quality and reasonable growth in quantity, better meet the people's growing needs for a better life, and constantly promote and expand China's modernization.
Yang Zhiyong, vice president of the Institute of Finance and Economics of China Academy of Social Sciences, told the reporter of 2 1 Century Business Herald that China is already the second largest economy in the world, with a rich material base, but there is still a certain gap from the goal of modernization. With the advancement of modernization, the economic scale of China will continue to grow. By 2035, China's per capita GDP will reach the level of moderately developed countries, which needs to continuously expand domestic demand and enhance its driving role. Because China is a big country, domestic demand is an inherent attribute of a big country.
Promote high-quality expansion of domestic demand and break through supply constraints.
Liu He said that in order to organically combine the strategy of expanding domestic demand with deepening supply-side structural reform, we must adhere to the theme of promoting high-quality development.
How to meet the requirements of high-quality development? Liu He said that the expanded domestic demand must be effective, meet the individualized, diversified and escalating needs of the people, have a reasonable return on investment, have income-based consumption, and be bound by principal and debt, which is a sustainable demand. The fiscal and monetary policies should be adopted when the effective demand is insufficient and the market expectation is unstable, so that the policies are timely, moderate and accurate, and flood irrigation is not allowed. To deepen the supply-side structural reform, we must make a fuss about improving the quality and efficiency of the supply system and improving the adaptability of the supply structure to effective demand. We must not form backward production capacity and products that do not meet the development direction and market demand, resulting in a waste of social resources and wealth.
Liu He said that to promote the organic combination of the two, we must persist in deepening the supply-side structural reform as the main line. At present and in the future, there are constraints on both supply and demand in China's economic development, but the main contradiction lies in the supply side, which shows that there are stuck points, blocked points and fragile points in supply, and the supply structure cannot adapt to the changes in demand structure.
What are the outstanding sticking points, blocking points and fragile points in China's supply? Liu He emphasized three aspects. First, in areas with high external dependence, it is difficult to have external alternative sources in the short term, and the supply chain may be cut off, so it is necessary to speed up the short board. Second, in areas where the demand has not been effectively met, such as high-quality brand goods, high-quality and diversified life services, such as child care and pension, healthy culture, and high-end productive services, such as R&D and design, accounting and auditing, and green ecological products, we should deepen reform and open wider to the outside world, and optimize the supply structure as soon as possible. The third is to adapt to the new round of scientific and technological revolution and the general trend of industrial transformation, promote the development of new industries, new technologies, new products and new formats, create new demand with new supply, and form an inexhaustible motive force for economic development.
When persisting in deepening the structural reform of the supply side, we should give full play to the advantages of the ultra-large-scale market. China has a population of more than 65.438+0.4 billion, and there are more than 400 million middle-income groups. It is moving towards the ranks of high-income countries. The income level and consumption level of residents have been continuously improved, and new industrialization and urbanization have been continuously promoted. This is the most potential super-large-scale market in the world. China has the largest and most complete manufacturing system in the world, and the output of more than 220 industrial products ranks first in the world.
Liu He said that the super-large domestic market has brought remarkable advantages of economies of scale, innovative development and anti-impact ability to China's economic development. Adhering to the strategic basis of expanding domestic demand is to make full use of the precious strategic resource of super-large-scale market, create long-term stable and good development expectations for market players, promote the prosperity of * * * in high-quality development, expand middle-income groups, enhance the willingness and ability of the market to spend independently, and promote and promote high-quality supply with domestic demand with expanded scale and structural upgrading.
Some experts told the reporter of "265438+20th Century Business Herald" that with the growth of China's economic scale, the constraints of demand itself are becoming more and more obvious, and the traditional kinetic energy is weakening, including the process of urbanization, the number of cars with 1,000 people and the living area of houses. This will bid farewell to the original rapid upgrading stage, and China will shift from the high-speed growth stage to the high-quality development stage. Entering the stage of high-quality development requires more reliance on scientific and technological innovation. At the same time, we need to do things related to equal opportunities and equal opportunities. At the same time, it is necessary to promote a higher level of opening up, because with the flow of advanced elements such as R&D funds and talents, higher requirements will be put forward for the local business environment.
Focus on maintaining macroeconomic stability and other seven major tasks.
Liu He said that the next five years will be a crucial period for building a socialist modern country in an all-round way. We should persist in taking economic construction as the center, deepen reform and opening up, find an organic combination between implementing the strategy of expanding domestic demand and deepening structural reform on the supply side, formulate systematic and effective measures, accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, enhance the endogenous motivation and reliability of domestic bulk circulation, and improve the quality and level of international circulation.
Specifically, the organic combination point includes the following seven main tasks.
Liu He said that efforts should be made to promote the mutual promotion of domestic and international double circulation. It is necessary to effectively tap the potential of domestic demand, build a unified national market, break down various obstacles that hinder domestic circulation, and pay special attention to achieving a medium level of recovery in extreme cases. We must adhere to a high level of opening up to the outside world, give full play to the role of opening up in expanding circular space, deeply participate in global industrial division and cooperation, maintain a pluralistic and stable international economic structure and economic and trade relations, and interact positively with the outside world.
Liu He said that efforts should be made to maintain macroeconomic stability. It is necessary to strengthen and improve macro-control, and do a good job in cross-cycle design and countercyclical adjustment of macro-policies. It is necessary to strengthen expected management, improve the transparency, credibility and professionalism of macro policies, and strive to stay ahead of the market curve. It is necessary to give play to the strategic guiding role of national development planning, strengthen the coordination and cooperation between fiscal policy and monetary policy, focus on expanding domestic demand, enhance the basic role of consumption in economic development and the key role of investment in optimizing supply structure, and continuously release the huge consumption and investment potential contained in modernization.
Liu He said that efforts should be made to enhance the vitality of micro-subjects. We must uphold and improve the basic socialist economic system, deepen the reform of state-owned assets and state-owned enterprises, speed up the optimization of the layout and structural adjustment of the state-owned economy, and enhance the core competitiveness of enterprises. Optimize the development environment of private enterprises and promote the development of private economy. It is necessary to build a high-standard market system and improve the basic systems of market economy such as property rights protection, market access, fair competition and social credit. Improve the modern enterprise system with China characteristics and accelerate the construction of world-class enterprises. It is necessary to set up "traffic lights" for capital and standardize and guide the healthy development of capital according to law.
Liu He said that efforts should be made to improve the total factor productivity. Give priority to the development of education, self-reliance in science and technology, talent-driven, enhance the country's strategic scientific and technological strength, strengthen the construction of basic scientific and technological capabilities, and resolutely win the battle for key core technologies. Improve the quality of education, and speed up the construction of world-class universities and disciplines with China characteristics. It is necessary to improve the strategic layout of talents, focus on cultivating top-notch innovative talents, and form a comparative advantage in international talent competition. It is necessary to strengthen the dominant position of enterprises in scientific and technological innovation and support the development of specialized and innovative enterprises. In view of the long-term new trend of population change, we should optimize the population development strategy and establish a fertility support policy system. According to the urgent requirements of financial restructuring, deepen the reform of the financial system, improve the function of the capital market, and increase the proportion of direct financing.
Liu He said that efforts should be made to improve the resilience and safety level of the industrial chain supply chain. In the face of some countries' attempts to decouple and break the chain of China, it is necessary to speed up the completion of the shortcomings in the field of security development, especially the outstanding shortcomings of basic software, core hardware and basic raw materials, enhance independent intellectual property rights and alternative connection capabilities, and ensure the stable and smooth supply chain of the industrial chain. We must persist in focusing on the real economy, consolidate the leading position of advantageous industries, promote the development of high-end, intelligent and green manufacturing, build a high-quality and efficient new service industry system, accelerate the development of the digital economy, and create a number of new growth engines.
Liu He said that efforts should be made to promote urban-rural integration and coordinated regional development. It is necessary to thoroughly implement the strategy of coordinated regional development, major regional strategy, main functional area strategy and new urbanization strategy, optimize the layout of major productive forces, and build a regional economic layout and land space system with complementary advantages and high-quality development. It is necessary to build a coordinated development pattern of large, medium and small cities based on urban agglomerations and metropolitan areas, conform to the objective laws of economic development, and promote the agglomeration of various elements to advantageous regions. It is necessary to coordinate the layout of rural infrastructure and public services and build a livable and suitable rural area. It is necessary to speed up the establishment of a housing system with multi-subject supply, multi-channel guarantee and simultaneous rent and purchase.
Liu He said that efforts should be made to prevent and resolve systemic risks. It is necessary to strengthen macro-control, especially demand-side management, seize the main risk points, increase liquidity injection and expected management, and properly handle the relationship between preventing systemic risks and moral hazards. At the same time, it is necessary to promote supply-side structural reform, accelerate the transformation of development mode, enhance governance capacity, optimize the functions of the financial system, improve the efficiency of capital and resource allocation, promote a virtuous cycle of science and technology, industry and finance, achieve a higher level of balance between supply and demand, and base the prevention and resolution of systemic risks on strong and healthy economic fundamentals.
Facing the impact from the supply chain, the enterprise level has been making adaptive adjustments. Joo Won?, director of Boston Consulting China in Beijing, said that due to the epidemic, the global supply chain has changed from a global layout to a regional layout. More and more enterprises no longer have only one global center, but choose to establish multiple regional supply chain centers, which can not only spread risks, but also better cope with the market. Facing the rising uncertainty, the risk of excessive concentration of supply chain increases, so more and more enterprises strengthen the diversified procurement of upstream key raw materials, set up flexible production in multiple factories, and build emergency backup logistics channels at the same time.
Zhang Yongjun, deputy chief economist of China International Economic Exchange Center, told 2 1 Century Business Herald that the requirement of expanding domestic demand is "demand with principal and debt constraints", which is from the perspective of risk prevention. For example, investment projects need to be launched in expansion, but projects cannot be launched blindly. The project should have principal, and the overall debt level should be considered. "In particular, we should pay attention to achieving a medium level of recyclability in extreme cases", which is a new formulation. This may mean that China should pay attention to keep the supply chain of industrial chain unblocked, maintain the relatively normal circulation of logistics and people flow, and avoid the fallacy of composition caused by the superposition of multiple policies, so as to promote the steady economic growth and operate in a reasonable range. At the same time, in order to cope with external uncertainties, there should be room at the policy level.