Quantitative forecasting is a mathematical model, which uses historical data or factor variables to predict demand. It is a forecasting method based on the relatively complete historical statistical data that has been mastered and scientifically processed by certain mathematical methods, thus revealing the regular relationship between related variables and predicting and speculating the future development and changes.

The commonly used forecasting methods are as follows:

1, weighted arithmetic average method

The average calculated by various weights is called weighted arithmetic average, which can be weighted by natural numbers or the number of occurrences of items, and the average obtained is the measured value.

2. Trend average forecasting method

Trend average forecasting method is based on the actual number that happened in the past, and on the basis of arithmetic average, it is assumed that the value of the future period is directly continued by its latest value, and it has little to do with the value of the distant period.

3. exponential smoothing method

Exponential smoothing method is a method based on the past trend of an index itself to predict the future. When forecasting the future, it is considered that the influence of recent data should be greater than that of long-term data, so the closer the data, the greater the weight, and vice versa.

4. One-dimensional linear regression prediction method

According to the existing data of X and Y, the reasonable regression coefficients of A and B are sought, and a changing straight line is obtained, so that the distance between each point on the straight line and the corresponding point in the actual data is minimized. Let the linear equation of variables be: y=a+bx.

5, high and low point method

The high-low point method is a method that uses the algebraic formula y=a+bx to select the difference △y between the total cost or total expense of the highest and lowest business volume in a certain historical data, compare it with the difference △x between the two business volumes, find out B, and then find out A. ..

6, time series prediction method

Time series prediction method is a special formula of regression prediction, which takes a series of times as independent variables, determines the linear equation y=a+bx, and then calculates the values of a and b.