(1) What's the population of China? This problem puzzles many demographers in China, and most of them are not sure how many people have been born in China since 1990s. Some people say that there was no census in China in 2000? Is the population after the census still unclear? However, after-the-fact analysis and investigation of the census show that there are serious problems of underreporting and restatement in the census, so that when the Family Planning Commission and the Bureau of Statistics adjusted the birth population in the population bulletin since the 1990s, the adjusted data was quite different from the census data based on the statistics of primary school freshmen enrolled by the State Education Commission. I believe that most demographers will not recognize such data. According to this data, the Family Planning Commission and the Statistics Bureau designated June 6, 2005 as the1300 million population day in Chinese mainland. Of course, there are still many people who think that the population of Chinese mainland is far more than 654.38+0.3 billion, and it may be 654.38+0.4 billion to 654.38+0.5 billion or even 654.38+0.6 billion. In short, the population situation in China, whether experts, the public or the government, has not reached a consensus so far, which can be said to be walking in the fog, and no one is sure; However, while many countries in the world are trying to promote fertility for the problem of population decline or aging, we are still trying to stabilize the low fertility rate in the fog. So when the fog clears, the aging population and the imbalance of sex ratio come, how will we face it? If these problems could not be solved at that time, which hindered the prosperity and rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, how could we face future generations? Therefore, the author collected all kinds of data to find out the truth about the population of China and let us walk out of the fog of population.

(2) The academic voice to discuss the adjustment of population policy is rising in China, the world's most populous country. Recently, Hu Angang, director of the National Situation Research Center in China, Tsinghua University, said at the press conference of the new book "Population and Economic Development in China in 2 1 century" that blindly reducing the population size is not necessarily a good thing, and China should adjust its population policy appropriately and timely.

Hu Angang said that after 2030, the population situation in China will change greatly. Compared with India, the reduction of labor force will put China at a disadvantage in the competition of international economic development. In this sense, "preventing negative population growth" is the bottom line. According to the article, at present, the population pressure in China is relatively reduced, but problems such as the aging population and the imbalance between men and women are beginning to appear. China Social Science Literature Publishing House published "2 1 Century China Population and Economic Development", which holds that 2006-20 10 is the best time for China to implement a smooth transition of two-child late childbearing. Gradually relaxing the birth control policy can avoid artificially accelerating the decline of fertility rate and the process of "getting old before getting rich" in China.

The author doubts this statement of experts.

First of all, a large population base is the most striking feature of China's population at present. Large population, relatively insufficient resources and weak environmental carrying capacity are the basic national conditions of our country at this stage, which are difficult to change in a short time. The huge population has always been one of the most striking features of China's national conditions. According to the main data bulletin of the national 1% population sampling survey in 2005, the total population at the end of 2005 was1307.56 million, an increase of 7.68 million over the end of last year, and the natural population growth rate was 5.89‰. Although China has entered the ranks of low-fertility countries, due to the inertia of population growth, China's population will continue to grow at an average annual rate of 8 8- 10/00000 at present and in the next decade. According to the current total fertility rate of 1.8, the total population of China will reach1.300 million and1.400 million in 2065, 438+00 and 2020 respectively. The peak of the total population will appear around 2033, reaching about 65.438+0.5 billion. This also means that even if China enters the stage of negative population growth, it will be negative even on such a huge base of 654.38+0.5 billion.

Secondly, we should comprehensively observe the problem of labor force reduction. Recently, the exclamation of "shortage of migrant workers" has occupied a big page of the media, "Guangdong lacks 1 10,000 migrant workers" and "Pearl River Delta exclaims the shortage of migrant workers". There are different opinions about the mystery of this change, but in the view of many experts and scholars, the "shortage of migrant workers" is largely the lack of skilled workers. Confirmed by relevant departments, Guangdong and other provinces lack some senior managers and senior technicians, but they never lack ordinary migrant workers. On the other hand, there are still a large number of surplus labor forces in rural areas that need to be transformed. According to the annual increase of population urbanization rate 1 percentage point, about 300 million people will be transferred from rural areas by 2020. The government should speed up the process of breaking the household registration system, so that the labor force can flow freely, which can not only alleviate the shortage of urban labor force, but also alleviate the pressure of rural labor surplus. What needs to be done now is not to increase the absolute number of labor, but how to improve the quality of the existing labor.

Third, the problem of population aging should not be a reason to adjust the population policy. It should be said that the problem of population aging is a global problem. At present, all major capitalist countries in the west are facing this difficult problem. China's population aging has a certain special situation, that is, the relative population growth rate has gradually slowed down since the implementation of the family planning policy for nearly 30 years, but due to the large population base, the absolute population growth still brings great pressure to the country. It can be said that our aging is "paying off the old debts", the "pain" imposed on the family planning generation by the previous generation, and an act of "paying off the debts for the father". In the upcoming "42 1" family structure, if "1" becomes "2" again, the middle "2" will be even more overwhelmed. The fundamental starting point to solve the problem of population aging should not be to have more children, but to gradually improve the social security system on the basis of accelerating the development of the national economy, and to change from the past "raising children to prevent old age" to the social pension model.

In addition, derivative problems such as the imbalance between men and women are not the reasons for adjusting the population policy at present. In order to curb the rising sex ratio at birth, the state has taken a series of measures, promulgated the Population and Family Planning Law, the Provisions on Prohibiting Fetal Sex Identification for Non-medical Needs and Sex-selective Artificial Termination of Pregnancy, and launched the "Care for Girls Action" which advocates gender equality. At present, the main problem lies in the implementation of the policy. Whether adjusting the population policy and relaxing the second birth will promote the suppression of the imbalance between men and women remains to be further demonstrated.

At present, China is still facing enormous population pressure, and we still need to make a careful population policy. On February 9th, 2006, the State Council City, China issued the Outline of the National Medium-and Long-Term Science and Technology Development Plan (2006-2020), proposing that the population target in the future 15 years is to control the population within1500 million. One of its development ideas in the field of population and health is to control the number of births and improve the quality of births. The outline also said that stabilizing the low birth rate, improving the quality of the birth population and effectively preventing and treating major diseases are the inevitable requirements for building a harmonious society. Based on the above analysis, the author believes that the time to adjust the population policy is not yet ripe.