This lecture begins with the practice of getting rid of "scattered thinking" and establishing "formula thinking"
What is distracted thinking? Decentralized thinking has a typical performance, that is:
Oh, by the way, do you think this will be useful?
The performance of the shopping mall is not good. What should the boss ask? You're thinking hard, and suddenly it flashes, and you say, Oh, by the way, do you think this will work? We install a slide from the first floor to the negative first floor, and then sell toys under it, so that children will be attracted.
Is this a good idea? Maybe it's really good.
However, how did this "epiphany" come about? He doesn't even know. The next time you encounter another problem, you will "think hard" and wait for "an epiphany". What if it doesn't find you? What if it's not an epiphany but a bad idea?
When you dismantle the bomb, you say, "Oh, by the way, try cutting the red line to see if it works." This is fatal.
This thinking habit of getting ideas by inspiration is: scattered thinking. Scattered thoughts are accidental, unreliable in quality and flawed. It's ok to give irresponsible advice to friends in life, but it's absolutely impossible to take apart really complicated business problems.
Then what should I do? Practice breaking "scattered thinking" and establishing "formula thinking".
What is formula thinking?
Let me give you an example.
The news said that a hot pot restaurant opened by the star closed down. There are different opinions on the internet.
Some people say that restaurants run by celebrities will close down in nine cases out of ten, because they are not good at management and need to hire a good manager;
Some people say that the hot pot competition is too fierce now, and it is necessary to change the track; Some people say that they must have been cheated, and they need to be cautious in investing, and so on.
All kinds of well-meaning suggestions may be reasonable, but they are all "distracting thinking" and will make people fall into a dilemma.
So if we think with "formula thinking", how should we disassemble this problem?
First of all, we should find a "formula" that can accurately describe the business logic of restaurants.
Where does the formula come from? Masters can refine formulas from system models. But for most people, it is very important to learn the proven formula refined by experts.
At this time, in the "5-minute business school", I hope you can deeply understand the "sales funnel formula" in your mind:
Sales = flow * conversion rate * customer unit price * repurchase rate
You can make good use of it. Use this formula to analyze the management logic of restaurants:
Traffic is the total number of people who know this restaurant;
The conversion rate is to know how many people in the total number of people in this restaurant will actually come to eat;
Customer unit price is the number of customers who come to eat at each table;
The repurchase rate is how many customers who have eaten this restaurant will come back.
After understanding this formula, think about which of these four variables will the influence of stars play a role?
That's right. Flow.
The influence of stars can really bring huge traffic to restaurants in a short time. But every restaurant is subject to a fixed physical location, and after all, it can only do business within a certain range. A restaurant has to operate for more than three years, and ultimately it depends on repeated eating by old customers to maintain and develop.
When you think about it with the formula of "sales = flow * conversion rate * customer unit price * repurchase rate", it is easy to draw a conclusion that the short-term business of restaurants depends on flow and the long-term business depends on repurchase rate.
If you happen to have a star friend who wants to open a restaurant and ask your opinion, I suggest you never say, "Oh, by the way, do you think this is ok?" In this way, you are likely to lose this friend when he loses the restaurant. You can say I have three suggestions:
You are responsible for bringing traffic to the restaurant with your influence;
But we must find an experienced manager to help improve the conversion rate and customer unit price;
Don't forget to continuously monitor the quality of dishes to ensure the repurchase rate.
When you can get rid of scattered thinking and establish formula thinking, the whole world is no longer a "factor" in your eyes, but a "connection relationship" between them.
These formulas are maps that masters "stole" from God with insight.
Let me give you another example.
Many people believe that excessive carbon emissions are the chief culprit of global warming. However, how to solve the problem of carbon emissions? Experts gave thousands of suggestions. Some people say you drive less, some people say you are not allowed to burn coal, and some people say you are all talking nonsense. This also limits this, so why is breathing unrestricted? There was a terrible quarrel.
Bill Gates, the founder of Microsoft, gave a "decomposition formula" to solve the carbon emission problem in a TED talk:
Carbon dioxide = P x S x E x C
In this formula:
P is people, population;
S, that is, per capita service, how many services each person uses, such as driving, fireplace, barbecue and so on;
E is the energy of each service and how much energy is used by each service;
C is CO2 per unit energy, and how much CO2 is emitted per unit energy.
Then the problem suddenly became clear. Solving the problem of carbon emission is to solve the problem of population explosion (P), advocating environmental protection lifestyle (S), equipment energy saving (E) and carbon emission efficiency per unit energy (C) respectively. Don't make so much noise Everyone has their own duties in each field and works together.
What other commonly used super formulas can get rid of scattered thinking?
For example, the compound interest formula: income = (principal+compound interest) time. With this formula, you will pay attention to the principal, compound interest and time at the same time, these three elements, and the relationship between them.
For example, the ratio formula: price = cost * ratio. With this formula, you will understand that there has never been a "one point, one price" in this world, and the relationship between price and cost is relatively stable because the fixed ratio has not changed for the time being.
For example, the user loyalty formula: user loyalty = (the value I provide-the value he provides)+transfer cost. With this formula, you will suddenly understand that the so-called customer loyalty may not be because you are good enough, but because he is tired of moving away.
When I heard that, did you suddenly understand one thing? Why do many large organizations test you with the abnormal question "How many bicycles are there in Shanghai" when recruiting truly outstanding talents?
Because to answer this question, you almost have to establish a formula and then reasonably estimate the variables in the formula. The purpose of this question is to test whether you have the ability to steal God's map with "formula thinking".
Finally, sum up.
What is distracted thinking? Scattering thoughts depends on thinking hard and waiting for an epiphany. Distracted thinking likes to say, "Oh, by the way, do you think this will work?" This kind of thinking habit is accidental, the quality is unreliable and leaked.
To gain extraordinary insight, we must practice thinking without bondage and establish formula thinking.
What is formula thinking? It is to express the "connection relationship" between "elements" with mathematical formulas. Masters extract formulas from system models, and ordinary people learn formulas on the shoulders of masters. Formulas are maps that experts "steal" from God with insight.
However, in order not to be a keyboard man pointing around because of learning "formula thinking", you also need to remember that mastering the formula closest to the "connection relationship" between "elements" is the key. Solving problems with wrong, inaccurate and granular formulas can not only solve the problems, but also kill people. Never buy a compendium of materia medica to practice medicine. Never.
After listening to this article, I read it twice again, and I was very happy at first. It seems that with this insight, it has become very powerful! This should be the so-called chicken soup, which can beat chicken blood.
But the key point is: how can we get rid of scattered thinking and establish formula thinking?
I found another article: How to establish formula thinking.
Link:/question/21067979/answer/852392345
Many people are excited when they first come into contact with the concepts of frame and thinking model, thinking that they have found a treasure, so they all hope to accumulate as much as possible.
For example, some people will collect various management tools of consultants and the 10 1 thinking model of Charles Munger, Buffett's partner.
If you are doing the same, be careful.
Because for consultants, these management tools are organized according to the main line of enterprise management, while for Charlie Munger, the so-called 10 1 thinking model is organized according to the main line of evaluating investment targets.
For them, these frames are like branches growing on trees, and they are an organic part of their own ability trees. But if you don't have your own application thread, then these frameworks may just be weeds to you.
What is the basis for building a thinking framework? Foundation is your main line of application.
The core of establishing your own thinking frame is to start from your own use goal and accumulate your own frame library around your own trunk, instead of copying others' (this sentence should be emphasized).
How to do it specifically?
As a veteran of the workplace who has written books about thinking (and the Douban score is not bad), the following is my summary for many years for your reference:
You can divide your thinking frame library into two parts: general frame and professional frame to precipitate.
0 1 Accumulate a certain number of general frameworks that have nothing to do with majors.
The essence of the framework is the precipitation of human experience. Its advantage is that you can save your own exploration time and reach the level of predecessors or your history at once. Of course, there are disadvantages, that is, if the framework is applied, it can reach the level of seventy or eighty at most.
Fortunately, however, in most of our work or life, as long as we achieve 70 or 80 points, it is enough. If you don't need to organize some parties, give a speech at the regular meeting, which is 100. And with the universal framework, you can focus your precious energy on 70 to 80 or even 90 points instead of wasting it on the exploration of 0 to 70 points.
There are two key points when accumulating a common framework:
1. The first point is to accumulate according to a certain level, not like weeds.
For example, my general framework is accumulated according to the five levels of "Tao, life, strategy, tactics and execution". You can refer to rebuilding your common framework layer. It is enough to master 1-2 general frameworks at each level, and there is no need to be greedy.
On the level of "Tao", the general framework I have mastered is "Yin-Yang diagram", and the main application idea is the unity of opposites of all things. Black and white, seemingly contradictory, are actually unified.
At the level of "fate", a general framework I have mastered is the "five-layer theory of fate", that is, from top to bottom, five people's ability to do good to one life, two fortunes, three realms and four.
The way I interact with people is guided by these two frameworks, which have helped a lot so far.
On the "strategy" level, the framework I often use is "building a team-making a strategy-leading a team", which is the framework I use when the external business environment is uncertain, that is, first find the right person, build a good team, customize things after having a team, and then take the team to do it after having a strategy.
If the external environment is determined, my framework will become "making a strategy-building a team-leading a team", that is, first make clear the business direction, find the right person according to the business direction, and then ensure the team's execution.
On the level of "tactics", I usually use two frameworks, one is "golden three points", which is a lofty statement of why, what and how, and the other is "direction, method and people". For example, if something is not done satisfactorily, I will first judge that it is in the wrong direction. If there is no problem with the direction, I will judge whether there is a problem with the method. if
On the "execution" level, I generally use 5W2H and PDCA. For example, when I assign tasks downwards, I will consciously make it clear according to the elements of 5W2H, and when I receive tasks from customers or others, I will follow this framework in my mind first, thus greatly reducing the repetitive work caused by unclear understanding of tasks.
PDCA is mainly used to remind yourself to check and adjust tasks, because even the perfect plan will have deviations when it is executed, so it should be checked and adjusted immediately according to the deviations.
2. The second key point of accumulating the general framework is that the application of this framework is very skilled.
What do you mean very skilled? Is that it can be used without thinking. For example, whenever someone asks you to say a few words on stage, your first reaction can be to say a few words under the framework of why-what-how.
After the common framework is accumulated, you have completed 50% of the accumulation work. The remaining 50% are professional frameworks related to majors. For example, financial uniqueness, financial uniqueness, architectural uniqueness and Internet operation uniqueness.
02 accumulation of professional framework
These professional frameworks should correspond to your post competency system, which means you can fill them in the post competency framework.
There are also two key points when accumulating professional frameworks:
The first point is that you must master the frequently used professional framework and reach the proficiency of the general framework.
The second key point is that there are hundreds of thousands, if not one million, of professional frameworks that are not often used. We can't master them skillfully, but what we need to do is to find them once we need to use them and use them well according to the guide.
Let me give you an example:
Suppose you are a project manager. You should be very familiar with the project stakeholder management framework and project management tool framework, because these are often used.
Suppose you are a project manager. You don't need to be proficient in project stakeholder management framework and project management toolbox, but you don't need to be proficient in earned value management either. You only need to know where to find the calculation formula of earned value management and calculate the schedule deviation when necessary.
If you are a financial manager, at least you should be very clear about the basic framework of balance sheet, income statement and cash flow statement, but it may not matter if you are not very skilled in the formula of deferred income tax.
More important than accumulating frames is your habit of thinking with frames.
Frames are endless, because each frame is just a skill. It is more important to develop the habit of giving priority to building frames than accumulating frames.
Because the thinking mode of thinking, learning and expressing with a framework is the law, if the law is understood thoroughly, technology is naturally not a problem. This is not a question of drawing inferences from one's own experience, but a question of drawing inferences from another's experience.
I know you want to ask how to form this kind of thinking habit.
Nothing but training.
After reading these two articles, I think the most important thing is to cultivate my independent thinking ability.
How to cultivate?
First, don't regard information as knowledge, collection as learning, reading as thinking and storage as mastery.
If you don't refine the summary, apply what you have learned, think deeply and practice feedback, you won't become your own ability.
Second, what is thought is based on distinct personal views, especially those different from others, and comes from observation, reading, summing up, thinking and practice, rather than patting the head. ?
Third, when encountering problems, you can model and analyze, modify exercises, do more, and naturally form your own thinking mode.