Hello, everyone, I am a doctoral student of Chinese Academy of Sciences. The doctor has been badly played these days (skip 10 thousand words here) Doctors are human beings, and doctors rub against hearthstone.

My previous ID was Grumpy Ferret #5260 1 (the system is random and often makes mistakes, but now it is changed to Dr. Ferret #5534). In the first official season, Hearthstone played a wave from level 5 to legend, using only 27 games (26 wins 1 negative). It scored 10 in front of the ladder, and the card group learned something, Baidu. In the second official season, something bad happened to Hearthstone. There are too many entertainment tendencies of substitute training, brush marks, various doors and hearthstone, which coincides with the academic tension, and AFK has lasted for some time. Half a year later, Ai Lu became a professional player, Li was still working hard, and Xiao Wang became a model worker of Blizzard. Flying fox resigned and concentrated on cleaning hearthstone. The weak chicken aged 65,438+07 took back the hearthstone, and Master Dong left in a daze. A few months later, the highly anticipated Ferrari was owned. On the whole, everything is thriving!

Yesterday was the first day of the new season, and I also used a set of Hood. I have a good record to share with you. But today's focus is not on the deck. Of course, the deck will be attached at the end, which is similar. Today's theme is: Hearthstone is a skill.

Hearthstone is a job with technical content.

Let's start with the fact that with the weakening of the undertaker, the number of hunters decreased (10%), so the number of druids relative to virtual hunters soared (30%). Therefore, the number of wizards who are more restrained from druids or K-gods' mirror entities has increased. Because they were more confident in the civil war, they chose the roaring ladder. The record is as follows:

The winning rate of the civil war is 2/3, the knight is 55, and almost all the other occupations are done. The roaring Dika Group itself has a formidable open field line, which activates the professional characteristics of leap-forward growth and makes me fondle it. The core monument in my career must be the druid. Let's analyze the rhythm of force of nature+Roar, which is hated by thousands of people: through 10000 times of card grabbing simulation (self-written program, no simulator), and then draw with Matlab. The default strategy: I won't keep force of nature's roar at first, because the essence of druids is to jump the rhythm. Don't ask me why I can't beat the mage. You still stay in the natural force because of the mechanical jump shot of others. The result is shown in the following figure:

The horizontal axis is the number of cards obtained, and the straightforward point is 30-the number of cards left. Players can preliminarily judge the probability that their opponents have natural force+roar by observing the remaining cards of their opponents. It can be seen that 50% of the dividing line is located at 15, which means that players will have to wait until 10 to collect one set on average without going through the Blue Dragon knowledge tree. However, once you pass the old tree of knowledge once, the probability of having a set of 9 rounds is more than half! Good at math! _ no _! ? I recall that when I was in the Top Ten Drunk Group, I had no owner, and when I was taken to Kedo, I brought two blue dragons, so the civil war was often the first to be killed. That's the truth! And 70% of the scores are in 19. Players can refer to this table when playing against druids, and make appropriate bets on whether there is a group of opponents. If he doesn't check well, he should be fair and don't need to be dismissed. If he checks well, he should be timid and there must be a draw. However, as long as the strategy is right, he will win more and lose less. The above record proves that if the strategy is the same, it should be 55-0, not 2/3 winning rate.

Someone put forward a double natural force player and "improved" a set of single natural force cards. I made a convenient comparison, and the result is as follows: the single 50% dividing line of natural force is located at 19, which is four rounds later than the natural force twice, that is, four rounds later! 1 card is less, waiting for 4 rounds on average! Good at math! _ no _! ? Never force it! At the same time, in 15, where force of nature binary has entered the 50% dividing line, force of nature unit can only kill 30%. So roaring Danny would rather get a natural force to solve the problem than covet this card.

In addition, I watched the video of the third place battle of NEL last night, and I helped the Lord fight against tolerance. God drew a quartermaster and turned the watch instantly, and calculated the probability of transferring a single quartermaster in a round of combo. Different from the druids before, the default strategy is: stay in combat and mobilize, and replace the quartermaster. It can be seen that in the case of over-touching 12 cards and no cards, the probability of eight-round combo is only 30%, which is relatively low, but compared with the above figure, it is natural force that growls the first three cards of the 30% dividing line, which is caused by different card changing strategies.

Attachment: an ordinary druid card group