Let's start with an urban legend: On February 18 this year, at a security conference called Munich, Bill Gates, the former richest man in the world, delivered an important report, saying that although the epidemic situation in COVID-19 is getting better now, we can't relax our vigilance, because the next big epidemic may come soon, and if we don't make preparations in advance, the consequences will be unimaginable. The virus he said is "monkeypox". Then he took out a simulation report and said that according to his simulation data, if monkeypox broke out in May 2022, 270 million people would probably die in the world one and a half years later, that is, by the end of 2023.

Gates' report comes from a non-profit international organization called "NTI", and the Bill Gates Foundation is the biggest funder of this organization. Let's not talk about how famous this international organization is, but only its report, which contains many results based on mathematical models. It has been more than half a year since the publication of this report, and the reality also proves that the things predicted in this report are being fulfilled all over the world. For example, the simulation report said that the outbreak time of monkeypox this year was May 15, 2022, while the outbreak time announced by WHO was May 13, only two days apart.

What is really terrible is some details and results of this simulation experiment. According to the simulation experiment, three weeks after the outbreak of monkeypox, that is, on June 5, 2022, 1, 42 1 person will be infected worldwide, and four people will die. The simulation results are almost the same as the reality. On June 8th, the actual global infection was 1, 4 19, which was just the same as the simulation results. In fact, the World Health Organization (WHO) announced on July 23rd that the monkeypox epidemic constituted a "public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC)". After COVID-19, WHO once again sounded the alarm for the whole world! Up to June 65438+1October 65438+September, 75 cases of infection141case were reported in the world, with 26 cumulative deaths. Among them, more than 100 countries and regions have found cases of monkeypox. On September 16, a case of monkeypox was found in Chongqing during the centralized isolation of entry personnel.

If there is no vaccine and drugs as the premise, according to the simulation, the result is that after half a year, there will be 480 million people infected in the world in May next year, and the death toll will exceed 27 million. At present, more than 6 million people have died in COVID-19. By the end of next year, 3.2 billion people will be infected and 270 million people will die from this epidemic.

Looking at this simulation report data will make you jumpy in front of the screen. Our COVID-19 epidemic is not over yet. If we add another monkeypox virus, the world will really be on the verge of destruction. Of course, Bill Gates' publication of this report is only a scientific deduction and will not really become a reality. Its purpose is not to scare people and explain how powerful he is. His main idea is to remind people all over the world that the crisis is still around us and we should respond more actively. The first choice of countermeasures is to have an effective vaccine against monkeypox virus.

Up to now, there is only one oral drug, Tecovirimat, which can be used to treat monkeypox virus, and it has been approved for marketing in Europe only based on animal test data. On May 19 this year, the FDA of the United States quickly approved the intravenous dosage form of this drug to deal with this sudden outbreak of monkeypox.

65438+1October 20th, the monkeypox virus strain was successfully isolated in China, which is of great significance for independent research and development of vaccines and drugs. Although African and European strains can also infect people in China, they are different from the strains isolated from patients in China, and they are native strains, which expand the microbial resource pool in China, which is definitely a good thing for the follow-up study of China population.

If it is of great significance to isolate monkeypox in China, it first makes up for the previous blank in this field in China and takes the first step for better and more targeted virus research in the future. Secondly, the whole world is scrambling to develop vaccines, and the virus may not disappear from people's lives so soon. At this time, whoever has recently cracked the code of DNA research and development of viruses or vaccines will definitely seize the opportunity, which will not only protect the lives of their own people to the greatest extent, but also be a huge economic market. This means that your country has the least loss and the fastest recovery from the global virus baptism, and can benefit from it.

Of course, there is still a long way to go to isolate monkeypox virus and make targeted vaccine, but fortunately, we have taken the first step. No matter how far the road is, the mission will be achieved. COVID-19's requirement for disease prevention is to "protect people's lives to the maximum extent". I believe that if we fight against monkeypox or other infectious viruses in the future, our medical workers will be better prepared and fail to fulfill their mission again.