Because the market is made by people, there are thousands of factors affecting the market, and there are only a few parameters in the formula. How do we describe all the possibilities? At least one formula can never be solved-can it be solved? Or how do you get the value of each parameter? How do you determine the value of risk-free interest rate R? According to the inflation rate or the bank deposit rate? How to get r? Where is the basis? And so on, and all this will affect your profit, the risk factor of your transaction. Of course, the model is not useless. When it is used, it should be considered from a comprehensive point of view, and the data calculated by the model can become part of the analysis report ~
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These two formulas are not contradictory, but have different pertinence.
Besides, I studied English when I was studying, and the corresponding Chinese terms in China are not accurate, but I will try my best to explain them in the hope of not causing misunderstanding.
The principle of futures pricing is the premise, and the pricing of different futures varieties will also be derived from the basic formula.
The information you gave is too general to judge the specific meaning of the formula, especially the first derived formula. If you think what is needed in practice, you can deduce an impossible formula according to the mathematical model and the actual situation. Is it possible that everyone has learned it? Is it possible that every formula is universal?
If you don't understand the first formula, it depends on his explanation of the model. This is not a general basic formula. Models are all targeted. You didn't give me the information, so I can't understand it. The structure is somewhat similar to calculating the price change by day.
The second is to do compound interest calculation in a continuous period of time. How long is the compound interest interval of R? Continuous ... to put it bluntly, it comes from something similar to the limit value, which is similar to infinitely narrowing the time period you want to take to the limit, and it is continuous. This is a mathematical conceptual process, which is pure mathematics.
Calculate the future futures price f = s * e (r-r) (t-t) as the basic formula.
For example, if I take t=0 (current) T=0.25 years (that is, 3 months), the futures price after 3 months should be F = S * E (R-R) * 0.25. If t is not in years, it must be converted into adults, because the definition of continuous compound interest is in years.
Sorry, I must apologize. It's R-R. I can't explain it correctly. I haven't read those theories for a long time, and I'm a little confused, but I thought about it carefully that day, hehe, I remember. I'm really sorry! I hope it didn't affect your normal understanding and study.
Your formula is not a basic formula either. R here refers to the expected payment of R% of the asset value during the contract period. The basic formula is F = S e^rT, that is, if you invest in S and T, the value should be F at R interest rate, but if you want to pay R, you must reduce the payment to become the real price of S in the future. This formula is mainly used for stock index futures. Where r refers to the average dividend rate of the stock index. Since r is known, we can use (t-t): se-r (t-t) to calculate the present value of the rate of return R.
Then we calculate the value generated by R. According to the basic formula, the present value is Fe-R (T-T).
Fe-R (T-T) is cash inflow, while Se-R (T-T) can is considered as cash outflow from investment. Let inflow = outflow, we can get an equation and get the final result: f = se (r-r) (t-t).
Other types of futures have different formula names. If you are interested, send me your email and I will send you my information, but it is all in English, but it is not difficult. You can understand.
The second formula also exists, but it calculates the value of futures contracts instead of pricing, which is related to the calculation of profit or loss. There are also differences in parameter settings. I won't say more, lest you be more confused.
The usage of e is constant, which seems to be 2.63 (I can't remember, it must be greater than 2). The fractional part is infinite and acyclic. Generally, if you really want the result, you always use the E on the calculator directly, and you don't need to enter the specific numerical value with reserved digits, so the reservation is inaccurate. Futures pricing has nothing to do with leveraged trading amplification. E is a constant and will not change ... This is the basic knowledge of mathematics.
The magnification of futures is not necessarily 10. Different varieties have different requirements for margin, for example, rubber may be 5-6%, and financial futures are also different. This has nothing to do with futures pricing ... just the rules of leveraged trading. Do you need specific examples? For example, if a spot is 10 yuan ton and its corresponding three-month futures price may be 12 yuan according to the formula, then if the margin is 10%, if you want to trade this contract, you have to take out 1.2 yuan money. This is a multiplier problem of leveraged trading. ...
Assuming that this formula is true, it is perfect and correct. So if the calculated three-month futures price is 12, if it is 1 1 in the market now, what should I do if the handling fee is ignored? Buy, of course, because after three months, the price will definitely rise to 12 yuan, which corresponds to shorting. Do you understand this truth? It has nothing to do with the leverage trading magnification.
Foreign exchange is also divided into firm offer and derivative. Derivatives are leveraged transactions, what is a firm offer? When you go to the bank to exchange dollars and travel in the United States, the exchanged dollars are a firm transaction. ...
If faced with an exam, which formula do you choose? Look at the definition of R given in his question, which is continuous compound interest (this continuous compound interest is translated into continuous compound interest by myself, so I can look up the corresponding terms myself), then you must use the model with E, because this model is the final formula of compound interest calculation, and the value of R is wrong in other formulas. The first formula, how do you define R? If the problem is the same, bring the first formula. I hope I've made myself clear.
But it seems that what is said upstairs is just a model. As for which is more reasonable and which is better to use, it depends on other data and analysts' own choices. I don't think it is very useful for the actual market operation. If the market follows this pattern, no one will make money. Hehe, so he is right. There is no need to be serious. Just remember the conclusion. If you want to understand all the models, at least master's degree or above, and if you can design a model doctor's degree ... you don't need these levels to know the basic conclusions to get the qualification certificate.