Around April, the epidemic was stable and seemingly natural, and the hardships were unimaginable. Academician Zhong Nanshan also said in this video consultation that "COVID-19 has substantial damage to the patient's lungs, and the pulmonary mucus produced hinders the airway patency, which is more difficult to treat than SARS patients." It can be said that the pressure on front-line medical staff is also great, because there are certain difficulties in treatment at present, especially for severe patients, which is even more difficult than during the SARS period.
When was the turning point in novel coronavirus? Although as of February 17, there were new confirmed cases 13 days in China except Hubei, our situation is still not optimistic, and we still need to be cautious. Academician Zhong Nanshan said when connecting with the front of Wuhan that it is expected that the number of newly confirmed cases will reach zero in the middle and late February, but this is not necessarily an inflection point, and it depends on the rework. "But I personally predict that there should be no more high incidence, and all localities have adopted very strict isolation measures for rework."
According to academician Zhong Nanshan's estimation, the epidemic will reach its peak in the middle and late February, and then there will be an inflection point, and the epidemic will be basically controlled at the end of March and April. Before May Day, the war will definitely end.
When will the closure of Wuhan be lifted? As the hardest hit area of this epidemic, Wuhan must wait until the epidemic is over before lifting the city's closure. According to academician Zhong Nanshan's estimation, the epidemic will reach its peak in the middle and late February, and then there will be an inflection point, and the epidemic will be basically controlled at the end of March and April. Before May Day, the war will definitely end. In other words, there will be more than one month before the epidemic situation in novel coronavirus improves until it dissipates. Of course, this is also a very optimistic estimate, depending on the actual development of the disease.
So at least 2 months!
Most provinces and cities outside Hubei can be said that the epidemic situation has basically passed, because the number of new cases has dropped for nine consecutive days except Hubei, and these provinces should be regarded as the basic victory of the anti-epidemic campaign. As for when the epidemic will pass in Hubei Province, because the existing base is too large, there are still more than 1 000 new cases every day, and there is still a period of time before the end of the campaign in Hubei Province. The optimistic estimate should be March.