2. Factor analysis This is a widely used prediction method in modern times. It requires the population to be studied to have more detailed statistical data, such as population by age and sex, fertility rate, mortality rate and so on. When forecasting urban and rural population and regional population, it is also necessary to obtain the relevant information of population migration. According to these data, we can estimate the future changes of fertility and mortality, and then predict the changes of population size and structure.
The mathematical model used in factor analysis can be deterministic or probabilistic, and can be combined with special needs for prediction and calculation, such as economic population prediction and talent prediction. The population forecasting model can be continuous or discrete. Generally speaking, in order to run on the computer and conform to the caliber of demography, discrete population forecasting models are often used.
Population prediction model
In the process of establishing population forecasting model, two problems are mainly considered: on the one hand, the choice and assumption of population forecasting parameters. That is, among many factors that affect population development, the representative parameters that play an important role in population development trend are selected. Such as birth, death, migration, etc. And fully consider the law of various parameters changing with time, and give the hypothesis of parameter change as accurately as possible. This step is the key to establish a good population forecasting model.
On the other hand, establish a mathematical model of population development, that is, by analyzing the history of population development and changes in the past, study the experience of regions or countries with rapid population changes, find out the inherent laws of population development process, and finally reflect them with mathematical models.