As we all know, Toynbee, a great British historian in the 20th century, wrote A Study of History. He spent most of his life and more than 5000 pages writing about all forms of civilization in human history.
After reading it, I found that he actually wrote four words, challenge and response.
He has an important conclusion: every civilization from prosperity to decline only meets one rule, that is, when the sudden challenge comes, no matter from which level, this civilization type fails to respond correctly and decisively.
This also applies to trends! In my opinion, the trend is to continuously, profoundly and accurately analyze the real needs of human nature and provide very effective satisfaction and response at the nodes of needs. Satisfy this and grasp the trend.
If this is the trend I understand, I want to talk to you about a methodological problem, that is, let us forget the common concept of "trend" and only think that what appears in the future but has not yet appeared is the trend.
If we can deeply judge the true human nature, see its trend and look forward to the moment when its energy gathers, then the so-called "trend", in my opinion, is far from the word "future", it can cover all dimensions of time-from the past to the present, until the future.
Therefore, for entrepreneurship and investment, what kind of company Zhenge Fund invests in has three dimensions. If a product serves a business idea, if we are in the past dimension, it depends on whether it has an accurate analysis of future needs. If there is still demand now and in the future, it depends on whether we can respond very effectively. This is called grasping the trend from the perspective of the past.
At the beginning of this year, Zhenge Fund invested in a company. Some boys from Hong Kong University of Science and Technology want to do something. They found that in the heyday of social tools such as WeChat, Twitter and Facebook, email has become a huge thing. In the long run, it can't be completely thrown away, because all the information in the past was concentrated on email.
They had an idea: Can they save this monster? Of course, this is an analysis of the past. To put it simply, it is roughly to make the writing and reading of all emails feel like reading WeChat.
The founder's feelings infected us. What they want to subvert is the past! Where is the commercial future of this subversion in the face of the past? In America.
Because it is the birthplace and base camp of e-mail! Subverting the base camp will also subvert the world! We said not only to leave Hong Kong, not to start a business in Beijing, but to go directly to Yixin's base camp and let you complete your dream of coming back to life! You dare to go, we dare to vote.
Unexpectedly, a week after last year, three young people bought a one-way ticket and flew to San Francisco and plunged into Silicon Valley. A miracle happened.
At the recently concluded Silicon Valley Tech-crunch, they were selected as the top ten disruptive technologies of this year's conference. At least at present, Chinese products rarely enter mainstream scientific and technological events. Of course, another company invested by Zhenge Fund also won the first prize at the same grand event. This is a company that makes aircraft. This is the future.
I'm talking about the past. This month, the male and female hosts of Fox TV in the United States spent more than 6 minutes commenting on this app. They like it very much and feel that they have found a subversive future for everything in the past. So is this a trend? This is the trend that entrepreneurs and investors change together.
We just stare at the future and feel very hard and long. But from the perspective of industrial revolution and cultural trend of thought, in fact, if you can do something to subvert it, this market does not need you to cultivate, because it is already there. What you need is an efficient solution to stimulate it. So, the first thing I want to tell you about "trend" is that it does not directly point to the future, but first points to the past.
Second, since you have been able to analyze the needs of human nature vertically and rationally and explore the possibility of technology, you are likely to find a shaped future now, and you don't need to think about it any more.
The same is true of the red, yellow and blue (kindergarten) that just appeared. When she becomes a mother, her children will not take care of her. Peking University doesn't teach, and she didn't go to Lan Xiang Technical School, so neither side touched each other. She is from Marxism-Leninism of Peking University. Regardless of children, Marx managed capitalism and a bigger future.
She made a tentative revolution in reality, and red, yellow and blue became the brand of early education in China 1000 parent-child kindergartens! This is for the present.
And on a certain day (Zhang), after learning the law, I "know the law and break the law" and threw away the learned law to make a bowl of rice noodles. Of course, through his ability as a lawyer, he will definitely make rice noodles instead of rice noodles, and of course, he will eventually make real rice noodles.
This is to live in the present and lead the future. With this way of thinking, thinking about this moment every day, you may find something that is not very eye-catching today, inject the depth of thinking, pull forward and lead to the distant future.
Our Zhenge Fund invested in a high-tech graduate from Tsinghua University. His name is Wang Dan. What is he going to do? Do the ultimate care-funeral service, wrapped in ashes, the last journey of life.
He's serious. At that time, a colleague said never to vote, unlucky! Koheita and I are excited! We don't know how people live, but we know their ultimate direction. This is the future we can see now.
For us, this is the future without evidence. It is called "fallen leaves". I changed its name to the other side. But it's not enough to let you grasp the future. You have to let people really feel the future. On the first day of serious investment, you said, don't invest money in people yet, because people don't know where the money comes from.
To feel warm, kind and not sad is the biggest psychological appeal of ultimate concern. Let's say where do you spend the money? Spend it on letting your flagship store convey modern people's thinking and humanistic warmth about death culture and then inject high-tech experience.
Zhenge helped him find the best designer in the world, the artist of the Ang Lee film "The Fantasy Drifting of Pi", and flew from the United States to design a flagship store for him, reflecting the philosophy of this death culture. If you have time to go to Jishuitan Hospital, you can find the "other shore" on that street.
It really subverts people's understanding of death and the genes of thousands of years of death culture. Is this a trend? Of course it's a trend. They think of traditional "portraits", all in black and white. Even if your relatives hang there, you are not happy. Can you look at me with honor? Why are you always sad! Why can't you use the color of oil painting to express the unforgettable moments of your loved ones? Western oil paintings are all "portraits".
Mona Lisa, do you think she is dead? Unexpectedly, the younger generation is very easy to accept the ultimate care of the new avant-garde when the elders are dying. They even signed a contract with a rocket launching company in the United States to send the ashes directly into outer space. I don't know if I can come back, but I hit a place near the other shore. Thinking deeply now can do extraordinary things and lead to the future.
The trend of the past can become the future. The current trend can be the future. Then the future trend is of course the future!
If you make a big judgment from human nature, college students think that this thing will be the universal demand of human beings sooner or later, then you can face such challenges and give effective responses.
Director Guo Hong just talked about Zhao Yong. Zhao Yong is one of the designers of Google Glass. Last year, he quit his job at Google for hundreds of thousands of dollars and returned to China to start a business with the dream of computer intelligent visual recognition. What is he going to do?
He wants to subvert the so-called computer vision recognition that we are used to. He wants to make the computer-controlled video head intelligent, like the human eye, to judge the possibility of this person's behavior in the real three-dimensional space at the first time, and then make information judgment in time.
It is equivalent to quickly turning this camera into a person, smarter than people. He had nothing to do with it, but found his business partner He Bofei. One knows the technology, the other knows the market, and the company is ready to go.
In addition to ICBC, the four major banks in China are already their customers. Their understanding of future trends is extremely keen, even ahead of time. This company is called Flash Deep Eye. This is a precise grasp and bold response to the future based on human needs.
What does it mean to grasp the trend? It means that you should have the ability to really discover. The ability to discover is not an innate nature, but a careful observation, profound understanding, accurate judgment and quick response to existence.
This reminds me of Rodin's famous saying: "The so-called masters are those who can find beauty in what people are used to."
Grasp the trend? That is, you can find things that others have not found in what everyone takes for granted. People are used to a certain reality, and you can change as much as you find. When people get used to a certain way of thinking, you can find something to change it.
People's experiences and experiences are the same, but you can bring people different experiences. As Rodin said, you find beauty in people's habits. This "beauty" is a trend in terms of investment, and college students' entrepreneurship is a guide in terms of industry.
With this thing, whether you invest or do business, you will have the soul and depth of thinking. I always believe that the depth of real thinking, the habit of thinking that is good at discovering, and the boldness of vision that spans the past, present and future constitute the absolute speed of enterprise development.
Money, manpower, opportunities and all these things, in other words, what you have and what others have can only be relative. What is absolute? Only you have something that others don't have or don't have for the time being.
In my opinion, only by cultivating the sensitivity to college students' entrepreneurial trend and grasping the trend, and internalizing this sensitivity into the way of thinking and existence at all times, can we face up to the past, face the present and lead the future! Thank you!