Let's talk about the feeling after reading this chapter. I read it with a plan. After reading a few pages, I won't stop, but read it all at once. It actually took nearly 2 hours (34 pages). I feel more efficient than reading without a plan. If you tidy it up again, the impression will be even deeper. Relatively speaking, learning is more solid.
I found that I can't just read one book at a time and need several different books at the same time. This week, I also began to read two books, the Culture Course of National Southwest Associated University and Wu Jun Reading and Writing, both of which have just started.
We are all familiar with banks, but most of the time we only know one and don't know the other. For example, temples, inns, cloth villages and pharmacies in history all played the role of banks. Why can they also act as banks? This chapter is about the past lives of banks, which tells us that the same characteristics as modern banks are the establishment of social credit networks.
The evolution of European nation-states depends on the cooperation among rulers, businessmen and bankers. From the Renaissance to the era of great navigation after16th century, Spain and Portugal, followed by the Netherlands and Britain, achieved the great cause of global hegemony with the most developed capital market and central banking system.
Until 15 and 16 centuries, European and American residents were still indifferent to the concept of state. The bank credit system is closely linked with national governance, which is of great significance to the formation of the concept of "country, citizen and government" in the modern sense.
Judging from the 400-year modern history of mankind, the bank credit system is the basis of modern economic operation. Just like an underground pipeline project in a city, it may not always be visible, but it supports the circulation and breathing of the whole city.
No wonder Harper and Carol Millis said with emotion that "the state created the bank, and the bank created the state".
Legal tender is the soul of modern currency, which means that modern currency is issued by the state giving banks (such as the central bank) a certain franchise, and the key to supporting currency is national credit.
From 65438 to 0944, the global hegemony of the dollar was determined through the Bretton Woods Conference. By 197 1, the dollar was decoupled from gold, which opened the era of credit currency.
Taking digital currency as an example, Bitcoin can complete the functions of currency pricing, payment and even value storage in many scenarios, but it is precisely because of its decentralization and bankization. Under the background that the country is still the most important organizational form of human society, bitcoin may still have a long way to go to replace the legal tender issued by central banks.
The banking system plays a vital role in the operation of modern economy. The state often regulates the credit scale of the whole society and the economic cold and heat through the banking system. Among them, the deposit reserve system and the benchmark interest rate are the two most important policy tools. The deposit reserve system mainly involves the amount of funds, and the benchmark interest rate adjusts the price of funds. Through the adjustment of quantity and price, the state has the ability to regulate the scale of credit and the cold and hot economy.
The specific functions of these two tools, I like such a metaphor in the book:
A small change in the deposit reserve ratio will cause a huge change in the scale of social credit through the circulation of the banking system. Therefore, adjusting the deposit reserve ratio, just like controlling the reservoir gate, will affect the credit scale of the whole society
If the deposit reserve ratio is used to adjust the amount of funds, then the benchmark interest rate is used to adjust the price of funds. In agricultural production, if the cost of water is too high, farmers may prefer to leave the land barren. If water resources are abundant and the price is low, farmers may be willing to reclaim more wasteland and plant more crops.
Similarly, lowering the benchmark interest rate (interest rate cut) is to reduce the cost of capital use and stimulate the economy, while raising the benchmark interest rate (interest rate increase) is to curb investment and consumption behavior and cool the economy.
Japan's real estate bubble in the 1990s and the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States in 2008 are all closely related to the policy of excessively cutting interest rates to stimulate the economy.
Adjusting the benchmark interest rate affects people's willingness to invest and consume by adjusting the price of funds, so as to achieve the purpose of regulating the economy. This logic is self-consistent, and the banking system has leverage effect. Once the interest rate adjustment is too large and the market expectation is completely reversed, it may form a feedback effect in the opposite direction: for example, if the interest rate is too high, the economy will easily contract too hard, resulting in a "drought"; Expanding the scale of interest rate cuts may lead to "flooding" and asset bubbles. Therefore, it is difficult to grasp the intensity and rhythm of raising interest rates and cutting interest rates.
The central bank is the absolute system hub. It controls the gate of currency issuance and is the lender of last resort in the market.
One of the causes of World War II turned out to be the Great Depression in 1929. The Great Depression spread from the United States to Britain and Germany and eventually escalated into a world war. Because the central bank did not play the role of lender of last resort in the market. Similarly, the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States in 2008 was actually worse than the Great Depression of 1929, but the world's major central banks decisively coordinated to rescue the market and actively acted as "lenders of last resort", which quickly stopped the spread of the crisis.
The balance treasure that almost everyone used before was the money fund. In fact, by July 20 19, four financial institutions in China had launched 730 money funds, with a total scale of almost 7.74 trillion yuan.
The money fund originated in the United States in the 1970s, when the United States also implemented interest rate control. According to regulation Q, there is no interest on demand deposits, but there is an upper limit on the interest on time deposits, so people's willingness to save is very low.
From 1978 to 1999, the proportion of American money funds in deposits rose from 1% to 63%. More than half of Americans have bought money funds and no longer keep their money in the bank. This is the famous bank deposit move in American history, which is called "financial disintermediation".
China has not seen such a large flow of bank deposits as the United States. Since 20 13, the total savings deposits of residents have been rising. By the end of 2065438+June 2009, China's monetary funds only accounted for about 3% of the total deposits, which is only a drop in the ocean in China's entire financial system.
From the perspective of income, the yield of money funds mainly depends on the interest rate in the interbank money market.
In other words, if you want to know when it is better to buy a money fund, just look at when the interest rate in the interbank money market is higher.
The change of interest rate in the inter-bank money market is mainly influenced by the macroeconomic environment and the central bank's monetary policy: the market liquidity is abundant, and the interest rate in the inter-bank money market will fall; On the contrary, the liquidity of funds in the market is tight, and the interest rate in the interbank money market will rise.
For many non-guaranteed bank wealth management products, banks are just a channel, and banks often charge a channel fee of 1%~2%, so they have no supervision obligation on the security of wealth management products. If the financing plan fails, the bank is not responsible for capital preservation.
After the new asset management regulations, banks will have no guaranteed wealth management products with fixed income.
How do ordinary people judge the risks of bank wealth management products? To sum up, there are the following technologies and strategies.
A lot of content is extracted, and from time to time, many concepts and metaphors can be used to analyze a current phenomenon, which can also be regarded as the part of "learning".