2. Whether others agree with your point of view will not make your point of view more correct or incorrect. The correctness of the viewpoint depends on the fact, the final fact.
3. Investment has nothing to do with what others think, as long as you can take a longer view.
4. It is easy to catch flying knives because when people catch flying knives, they often think about the past price of this stock, not how much the company is worth. Personally, I think that whenever I buy a stock, I should always assume that I just came to the earth from an alien, and then see if I should buy the stock at this price, including when I hold a knife.
I have said many times: the right business, the right people, the right price. As long as you have these three points, the investment results will be good in the long run. As for how to treat these three points, no one can simply teach them, but probably have to learn them by themselves. Especially the first two points are very important. We can see that when most people talk about stocks, they say a lot that has nothing to do with these three points.
6. How much reward will a person choose in the business he really understands? Many people make a mistake and choose people they don't know. Others say the return is high. As a result, 85% people lost money. If you ask these 85% "investors" whether to choose the annual income of 8% or 10% or 20%, it is a bit like a reporter asking others, "Are you happy?"
In a business you really understand, there is no reason to choose low return, but only if you really understand!
The business that everyone can understand is actually to deposit money in the bank.
Investment is something that only a few people can understand, so most people had better not touch it.
7. There is no question of "estimating" the value of the business that has been "understood", is there? It should be the opportunity cost, so everyone is different. For example, a person has 6.5438+0 million yuan, and his choice is to put it in the bank, buy government bonds, or invest in the business he knows. How do you think this person should evaluate the business he knows, if he really knows it?
8. In fact, small investors should find some small and medium-sized companies that they can understand when they have the opportunity, so that they have a better chance to make higher returns. It is difficult for large-cap stocks to make big gains.
9: If Apple started for business rather than user experience, it's time to consider leaving.
10: I'm just not interested in Soros, so I can't comment. I am not interested in what I am not good at, just as many people are not interested in me. It is not easy to lose interest in things that you are not good at, because people always think they are smarter than themselves.
1 1: If the company didn't buy the stock, what was it? As long as it is abstract to only one shareholder, it will be understood.
12: Q: Is good values a necessary condition for a good company? Duan A: You can say that. But occasionally, we will see that some companies with some problems in values will be fierce for some time because of some right products, and at the same time, we will also see that companies with good values will make strategic mistakes and lead to extinction. The difficulty of investment is that there is no formula to follow and there are not sufficient conditions to determine the companies that can be bought.
13: In fact, many companies can almost see that the days after 10 will be difficult. This is called business model. If you can always avoid companies that are definitely bad after 10 years of investment, it is basically difficult to perform too badly. If you can find a company to buy in 2-4 years, you will be developed. Aren't you satisfied?
14: Mao probably didn't mean it! Your total valuation is a bit like saying in a casino that it's time to pay a big price.
Gross estimate means that when you think it is worth at least 20 yuan, I can buy it with 12 yuan (of course, 13 and 14 are also acceptable).
The most important thing is: if this company is not listed, can you buy it at market value? The idea of being acquired is no different from the idea of "buying high and selling high", and it will suffer sooner or later. Maybe many people have already suffered, but they just don't want to repent.
15: Can't invest in "is it possible", but speculation is possible. Speculation seems to me a bit like playing in a casino. You can't bet heavily, so you can't win big money. The idea of investment is that you can make a heavy hand, and don't make a heavy hand without a high degree of certainty (such as about 90%).
16: I haven't planned to buy it yet because I haven't understood the business model and can't price it. Personally, I don't think buying stocks has anything to do with the price of stocks. It is unreasonable to say that the IPO price is half cheap.
17: People like to measure the annual rate of return, but there is no chance that the annual rate of return of large funds will be particularly high, such as Buffett's BRK, but small funds often have a high rate of return. For example, there will always be a person around, and it is said that there was a return of 40%, 50% or even higher in that year (just like friends who went to casinos together, there is always a person who was in high spirits on the first day).
Occasionally, I hear people say that a stock has risen at least 10 times, so I plan to put 10% in it, and so on. If he really believes that this stock will rise by 10 times, why only let it rise by 10%?
18: Short selling in a narrow sense refers to naked short selling, that is, borrowing stocks to sell first, hoping to fall and then buy them back.
"Don't short" in "Don't short, don't use margin, don't do things you don't understand" refers to short in a narrow sense.
When I say short, I mean short in a narrow sense, that is, naked short.
Buffett said that people are welcome to short BRK.
Generally speaking, really good companies welcome others to short (at least not afraid).
What is the company afraid of missing?
Of course, the business of borrowing money is a little scary, such as banks, which will cause panic in some cases, leading to bank runs and even bankruptcy.
For the stock I want to buy, what I hope most is that someone is shorting a lot, otherwise it will be difficult to get a good price; At the same time, when I want to sell stocks, I usually sell them to bears, because bears can't bear it. Only short sellers don't care about value. When they need to escape, they have no chance to think about what is better.
If you want to know why short positions don't care about value (price) when covering positions, you can refer to "Porsche's increase in holdings forces short positions, and Volkswagen becomes the grave of short positions".
I remember a famous stock market panic in the early years, which was also caused by short covering buying shares of a railway company and selling other shares (I forgot what it was called).
19: Corporate culture is generally established by the founders, and it is generally difficult to change (the corporate culture before Yahoo has a lot to do with Jerry Yang. Of course, time may change, such as HP; There is also a strong CEO who may change the corporate culture. For example, the CEO of Yahoo is trying to do this now. The CEO I have seen before taking office (not just Yahoo) usually comes up with a plan for business strategy, and this plan often doesn't work, because this plan is often suppressed by a few people, not everyone's vision. What the beautiful girl Mayer wants to change is the corporate culture. I think this is the slowest but only way to save Yahoo.
20. Corporate culture is to do the right thing, but doing the right thing correctly will lead to performance. (Do the right thing, do the right thing)
2 1: Although theoretically buying a company means buying its future cash flow discount, I have never seriously thought about what kind of discount rate is "reasonable". Within the scope of companies that can see the future clearly (it's really pitiful), I always hope to choose a future with a relatively good return. I don't think we should choose to run below the national debt interest rate (arbitrarily set a figure of 5%), but it is ideal to run below gold (10% or so).
I don't know how much money I can make after this investment. Only when buying, the valuation has the required rate of return or discount rate, can we compare other opportunity costs. In particular, the expected income I am talking about here is a common statement about annual income.
23: Talk about your own views on the expected return; First of all, I never preset the return expectation, because for me, the return on investment has nothing to do with my own expectation. My understanding of investment is that the process is more important than the result, or that man proposes, God disposes, as long as the process is right, the result will naturally be good; Second, in the long run, it should be the most basic requirement to run through bank deposits, otherwise it is busy; Third, from the perspective of value preservation, in the long run, the return on investment should at least keep the purchasing power unchanged, which is called no loss. Maybe it would be interesting to measure it by gold.
This passage belongs to the old bus: a horse that can only count to ten is a horse, but it is not a great mathematician. Similarly, a textile company that can make rational use of funds is a great textile company, but not a great enterprise. -Buffett
25. Say Apple: In fact, the easiest way is to understand this business, then decide an acceptable price, and then buy it and keep it. For example, in my personal opinion, Apple can make a profit of 80- 100 per share every year, and then it can maintain or continue to grow for a long time (for example, 5- 10 or longer), and then the conclusion is that 300 yuan is very cheap, 400 yuan is very cheap, and 500 yuan is actually very cheap. Is 600 yuan cheap now? It still looks very cheap. However, if there is no way to obtain Apple's future profitability, then no matter what the price, it will be dizzy.
26: If a person wants to buy a company, but doesn't know what the future cash flow (discounted) of a company will be at least, what will this person buy (it will be easier to understand if it is a non-listed company). Other factors, such as technology acquisition, are not considered here. "At least" is very important, which shows that this is a way of thinking. All those who use formulas are deceptive, without exception.
27. The buying and selling of so-called value investors are all related to value, for example, the time of selling has nothing to do with cost. Selling is the essence of a master. In fact, the relationship between market price and cost is considered. People who want to do this are naturally very concerned about the attitude of the market towards this stock, rather than focusing on the business of the enterprise. Just guessing. In short, it is almost difficult to decide to buy or sell a company that you really know.
28. Stocks or companies have time value, which is the charm of "discount". For example, I think Apple will have 1000 shares sooner or later, but it may take three years. If someone is willing to buy 800 today, I may be willing to sell it. However, if I think Netease is a stock above 50 yuan or even 100 yuan (within a limited time, such as 10 year), I will not sell it if someone offers 10 yuan to buy it (assuming the market value was 5 yuan at that time).
29. "Discount" of future cash flows. If you ignore the word "discount", the meaning is completely different. For example, if I told you that Apple would reach 6,543,800 yuan per share one day, but it would take 10,000 years, would you buy it? Thirdly, discounting future cash flow refers to a way of thinking. Please go to school and use the formula.
30: Simply put, whether a person is a value investor or not is irrelevant to him. The difference lies in his concern for the company itself. Some people who don't touch stocks can actually be the best value investors, because they understand the essence of value investment-they don't know how to touch them. In the long run, their return on investment is better than that of 85% people in the stock market, because they don't lose money in stock trading.
3 1: If religious feelings mean faith, faith means "doing the right thing" and "doing the right thing" means not doing the wrong thing, I agree with this statement. Buffett can be so powerful, the most important thing is that he can insist on not doing what he thinks is wrong. In fact, it is not easy to insist on this point, because often "wrong things" often have short-term temptations.
In fact, everyone has a speculative heart, so we need faith. My understanding of faith is "doing the right thing", or doing nothing when I know it is wrong. People like to do "wrong things" because such things often have short-term temptations.
33: It is often seen that people often disdain and don't understand the annual average return of 65,438+05%+. It seems that they should be five times 65,438+00 times as soon as they make a move. It's interesting to say that every year is a normal year for me.
34: "A company that knows its business at a glance is always good" is very insightful. Lao Ba also said that a great cause can be made clear in one paragraph.
Nokia is a typical example of success and the mother of failure. There must be many mistakes. To add: sometimes not making decisions when necessary is also a major decision-making mistake.
36. What is good in operating and stock price returns in a certain period is not necessarily a value investment. However, I believe that their thinking when they vote is definitely the thinking of value investment. Moreover, value investment does not necessarily make money (value investment will make mistakes), but the probability of making money for a long time is high.
37: The best way to learn from Buffett is to stay away from the stock market.
Not 38: loving money is a mistake. The most important thing is to do it right. As a person of that era, I am ashamed to talk about the word "money". I try to avoid it even when running a business. Of course, I can always find other words instead, such as capital and income.
B. It shows that it is difficult to learn investment in school, and even graduate students majoring in finance can only learn from seven to six.
C. explain that those who come through thick and thin and continue to realize the Tao will eventually realize it.
D. being on the road does not mean being at the destination. It may take a long time to know the right thing and do it well. The good news is that as long as you are on the road, it doesn't matter whether you are in a hurry or slow down. You will arrive in Rome sooner or later, if you really believe it.
39. A rough estimate of amzn in paragraph: Assuming that everything develops according to amzn's idea, after 10 years, the turnover of US$ 500 billion is really realized, which is1500 million based on 3% net profit. If you give him 12 times pe, it is180 billion market value. If you discount 6%, today is 1005 billion, which is exactly the market value today. Hehe, all the assumptions are gross estimates, but it feels good to find amzn, so I won't look at it for the time being. But if the market value of amzn is 65.438+00 billion, or 20 billion, it may be worth studying.
40. The so-called value investors pursue value, whether it is popular or not. All really good companies have hot days. The most important thing is to treat the value of a company with a normal heart, regardless of the cold or hot market.