1 people will still participate in the second rumor spread. That is 1 This person and those who believe in rumors will continue to spread rumors.
Hypothesis 2
The average number of people who believe in the spread of this rumor per unit time is directly proportional to the number of people who have never heard of this rumor at that time, and this ratio is constant.
Hypothesis 3
When it is spread, it will also be passed on to those who spread rumors and those who have heard rumors.
At the beginning of the ith unit time.
The total number of people who believe in rumors
Xyz (1)
Never heard of anyone.
Mt (1)
The proportion of people who have never heard of it to the total number of people (* * * n+ 1 person, n people who go out)
t(I)= mt(I)/n；
If k is the number of colonial infections,
SCB(I)= k * mt(I)* XYZ(I)；
The number of people who have never heard of rumors (considering that it will also be passed on to rumors and people who have heard rumors)
sch _ mt(I)= SCB(I)* t(I)；
Among them, I think
SCB _ mt _ xx(I)= sch _ mt(I)* p * a/ 100+sch _ mt(I)*( 1-p)* b/ 100；
Among them, those who don't believe are
SCB _ mt _ bxx(I)= sch _ mt(I)-SCB _ xx(I)；
At the beginning of unit time I+ 1
The total number of people who believe in rumors
XYZ(I+ 1)= XYZ(I)+SCB _ mt _ xx(I)；
Never heard of anyone.
mt(I+ 1)= mt(I)-sch _ mt(I)；
The proportion of people who have never heard of it to the total number.
t(I+ 1)= mt(I+ 1)/n；
If k is the number of colonial infections,
SCB(I+ 1)= k * mt(I+ 1)* XYZ(I+ 1)；
The number of people who have never heard of rumors (considering that it will also be passed on to rumors and people who have heard rumors)
sch _ mt(I+ 1)= SCB(I+ 1)* t(I+ 1)；
Among them, I think
SCB _ mt _ xx(I+ 1)= sch _ mt(I+ 1)* p * a/ 100+sch _ mt(I+ 1)*( 1-p)* b/ 100；
Among them, those who don't believe are
SCB _ mt _ bxx(I+ 1)= sch _ mt(I+ 1)-SCB _ xx(I+ 1)；
You can see that all kinds of numbers form a cycle, which can be iterated indefinitely.
Display unit time 1
The total number of people who believe in rumors
xyz( 1)= 1
Never heard of anyone.
mt( 1)=n
Then iterate.
If it is assumed that 1 in 1 does not participate, only other people who believe will participate.
That cycle should start with the third (originally the second), because
At the second moment, the total number of people who believe in rumors is not the following formula.
XYZ(I+ 1)= XYZ(I)+SCB _ mt _ xx(I)；
but
XYZ(2)= SCB _ mt _ xx(I)；
So from the third cycle.