2. Expected income: also known as expected income, refers to the income that can be predicted according to known information without unexpected events. Usually the future return on assets is uncertain. Uncertain returns can be expressed by various possible values and their corresponding probabilities. The weighted average of the two, that is, the mathematical expectation, is the expected return of assets.
3. Investment risk: refers to the risk that investors may suffer losses or go bankrupt in future business and financial activities in order to achieve their investment purposes. Investment risk is the most important content for investors to predict and analyze when deciding whether to invest.
The main factors that lead to investment risks are: changes in government policies, mistakes in management measures, sharp rise in the prices of important materials that constitute product costs or sharp drop in product prices, and sharp rise in loan interest rates.
Extended data:
The factors that affect the real interest rate level are:
( 1)? Economic factors?
Economic cycle. In the crisis stage, many industrial and commercial enterprises can't repay their debts on schedule because of the difficulty in selling goods, resulting in tight payment relationship and currency credit crisis.
Capitalists do not want to sell goods on credit, but demand cash payment. Due to the sharp increase in the demand for cash, the supply of loan capital can not meet the needs, which will raise interest rates. Entering the depression stage, prices fell to the lowest point, and the whole social production was at a standstill.
Accordingly, the demand for loan funds will decrease, the market will be flooded with hot money, and interest rates will continue to decrease. In the recovery stage, investment increased, prices rebounded, and the market capacity gradually expanded, which increased the demand for loans. However, the supply of loan capital was sufficient, and functional capitalists could obtain monetary capital at low interest rates.
Entering the prosperous stage, production has developed rapidly, prices have risen steadily, profits have increased greatly, new enterprises have been established continuously, and there is a great demand for loan capital. However, due to the rapid withdrawal of funds and flexible credit turnover, the interest rate is not very high. With the continuous expansion of production, the demand for borrowing capital is increasing, especially on the eve of the crisis, interest rates will continue to rise.
Inflation. When determining the interest rate, we should not only consider the impact of rising prices on the principal of loan funds, but also consider its impact on interest, and adopt ways such as raising the interest rate level or adopting additional conditions to reduce the losses caused by inflation.
Taxes. Whether to tax interest has an important impact on the interest rate level.
Policy factors
A country's monetary policy, fiscal policy and exchange rate policy have the most direct and obvious influence on interest rate changes. That is, according to the economic situation and the predetermined economic goals of the country, the central bank uses three major monetary policy tools-deposit reserve ratio, rediscount interest rate and open market business to influence market interest rates, thus expanding or tightening monetary policy.
(3) Institutional factors
Mainly interest rate control, the basic feature of interest rate control is that the relevant government departments directly set the boundaries of interest rates or interest rate changes.
References:
Baidu Encyclopedia-Real Interest Rate
Baidu encyclopedia-expected income