Ray kurzweil, a real technical expert and a world-leading inventor, was elected to the National Invention Hall of Fame with 13 honorary doctor and three presidential awards, and was praised by the media as "the legal successor of Thomas Edison".
About this book
The book Singularity Approaching is one of the hottest business bestsellers in recent ten years, and it is also a must-read classic in business circles. Generally speaking, Singularity Approaching records not the fantasy of liberal arts students about the technical world, but a world-class technical expert's insight into the future. Reading this book can help you sort out the development of human science and technology earlier, understand which fork road human beings will turn to in the future, and inspire you to think more deeply about the present and yourself.
Core content
The book Singularity Approaching tells us that in the future, the speed of human technological progress will far exceed our imagination, which will greatly change our living conditions, and even technology will help human beings occupy the universe in 1000.
What I'm reading to you today is singularity approaching. The book also has a subtitle: 2045, when computer intelligence surpasses human beings. The Chinese version of this book is about 400,000 words. I'll tell you the essence of this book in about 20 minutes: technological progress makes human beings more and more bizarre.
The book Singularity Approaching is one of the hottest business bestsellers in recent ten years, and it is also a must-read classic in business circles. Generally speaking, the book Singularity Approaching tells us that the speed of human technological progress in the future will far exceed our imagination, which will greatly change our living conditions, and even technology will help human beings occupy the universe in 1000.
The United States has never lacked futuristic books, and it has also nurtured a group of futuristic masters who are famous for predicting the future. However, the authors of best-selling books on futurology are mostly ignorant of technology, but ray kurzweil, the author of Singularity Approaching, is different. He is a leading inventor in the world. Elected to the National Invention Hall of Fame, winner of the National Science and Technology Medal, 13 honorary doctor, and three presidential awards. He was praised by the media as "the legal heir of Thomas Edison".
Therefore, the book "Singularity Approaching" records not the fantasy of liberal arts students about the technical world, but the insight of a world-class technical expert into the future. Reading this book can help you sort out the development of human science and technology earlier, understand which fork road human beings will turn to in the future, and inspire you to think more deeply about the present and yourself.
Specifically, this book tells us the following three points: first, Moore's law will make technology grow exponentially, and human beings will reach the singularity in 2045; Second, human beings are just a set of algorithms at the physiological level, which will be replaced by more advanced algorithmic intelligence in the future; Third, after humans reach the singularity, the algorithm intelligence is highly developed, and we can quickly rule the whole universe.
first part
Let's look at it one by one. First of all, let's take a look: Moore's law will make technology grow exponentially, and human beings will reach the singularity in 2045. The word singularity can be said to be the title of the book Singularity Approaching. Find out the meaning of this word and you will know what this book is talking about. However, before explaining the concept of singularity, we need to say a word, Moore's Law.
As we all know, there is a famous law in the computer field called Moore's Law. There are many versions of this Moore's Law. At first, it said that every 24 months, the components on computer integrated circuits would double, the computing power would double and the price would drop by half. Of course, it was later said to be1August and1February, and there was no unified statement. However, no matter how many months Moore's Law is, everyone's understanding of * * * is similar, that is to say, under Moore's Law, the computing speed of computers will be faster and faster. And this speed is not linear, but exponential, which is amazing.
You may ask, what's so great about the exponential growth of technology? Haven't you heard that all day? You know, this will affect the future of mankind. In the words of Kurzweil, the author of this book, this is a force that tears history. Why? Think about it, what is exponential growth? This year is twice that of last year, four times that of next year, eight times that of the year after next and sixteen times that of the year after next. At this growth rate, the result is very, very amazing. In another 20 or 30 years, it will be tens of millions of times or even a billion times.
This is not shocking enough. For example. We learned a story in primary school math class. I don't know if you remember. It is said that an Indian prime minister invented chess. The king was very happy and wanted to reward him. The prime minister said, I don't want anything. Please give me some food in the chessboard. Put one wheat in the first grid, two wheat in the second grid, four wheat in the third grid, and eight wheat in the fourth grid, each time twice as much as the previous grid. The king said, well, it's too simple. What is the result? Finally, adding up all the food produced by human beings in history is not enough for this prime minister to eat. We can all work out this mathematical algorithm, that is, from 1 power of 2, plus the quadratic and cubic powers of 2 to the 63rd power of 2, but no one expected it to be such a big number. In other words, exponential growth is very chaotic.
There is also a personal capital called the lotus pond effect, which means that in a pond, if the lotus leaves are doubled every day compared with the previous day, by 30 days, the whole pond will be covered, and the fish and shrimp in it can't breathe at all, which has caused an ecological disaster. But on the 29th day, we still didn't find the crisis coming. Why? Because on the 29th day, lotus leaves only covered half a pond. You will feel nothing, and it will be too late to fish tomorrow. As a result, the pond was completely completed the next day. This is the destructive power of the exponential growth of Moore's Law.
Human technology has been accelerating progress. Kurzweil said that every 14 year today is equivalent to the technological progress in the past 100 years, the next seven years are equivalent to our 14 years, and the next 3.5 years are equivalent to those seven years. One day, our scientific and technological progress and contribution to civilization in one second will exceed the previous 10 thousand years. Therefore, if we understand that the exponential growth is so terrible, we know that this index is likely to subvert history, and the history we see today is completely different from the future, just as we often feel unreasonable when we see the ancients today. Unfortunately, even many scientists are not aware of this.
Kuzweil said that ordinary technicians are immersed in their own research fields and see that there are many objective constraints on technological progress, such as lack of funds, inability to apply, or some obstacles that cannot be broken for decades, so they think it is impossible to be as fantastic as Moore's Law, twice this year, four times next year and eight times the year after. But Kurzweil said that if you look at a specific detail, the growth of technology is really slow, but if we look at the whole human race, it is very fast. Decades ago, everyone didn't use the internet, and a few years ago, everyone didn't have a mobile phone to surf the Internet, but today these have brought earth-shaking changes to our lives.
What's more, Moore's Law has been maintained for 40 years today. People keep saying that Moore's law is a temporary phenomenon and will stop one day. Numerous media have claimed that Moore's Law has gone bankrupt, but until today, technological progress has basically maintained the speed of Moore's Law. Then you may ask, prove that Moore's law does exist. What does it have to do with singularity? Then let's talk about what a singularity is.
Singularity was originally a mathematical term. We all know that when doing math and division, the divisor can't be equal to 0. This is an iron law. If the divisor is equal to 0, it doesn't count. What is 10÷0? Ordinary primary school math teachers will tell us that dividing by 0 is meaningless. Then at this meaningless moment, we can say that this is a singularity, because we don't understand that law. Once you enter this point, all the mathematical rules will be subverted. There are singularities in physics, such as black holes. If we can't understand a black hole, we know that its gravity is so great that even light can't escape. We can't imagine what the world inside a black hole is like, so we say that a black hole is the singularity of our physical world. So obviously, the singularity refers to a very extreme state. What about Kurzweil? He introduced the concept of singularity into technology. He used singularity to refer to the situation that our human science and technology keeps exponential growth and reaches a certain limit under the control of Moore's law.
Kurzweil believes that human beings are accelerating in the direction of singularity. This is the meaning of the title of the book Singularity Approaching. According to Kuzweil's understanding of the speed of technological evolution, he predicted that by 2045, human technology will break through to a new height, that is, reach a singularity, when human beings will undergo earth-shaking changes.
the second part
This is the first point of this book. Humans are moving towards singularity. Next, let's take a look: human beings are just a set of algorithms at the physiological level, and will be replaced by more advanced algorithmic intelligence in the future. Now the major media often discuss a question, who will artificial intelligence replace? This matter actually depends on when the computing power of computers can surpass human beings. We just discussed Moore's Law. The computing power of computers is getting higher and higher, but when it can surpass human beings, in addition to its own progress speed, it depends on how powerful the human brain is. The scientific research on the human brain is not thorough enough, so the limit of the human brain is not easy to calculate now, but we can make a rough estimate.
Scientists have known that human optic nerve can process about 10000000 video signals per second, so what is the weight of human optic nerve? 0.02 grams, equivalent to one seventh of the weight of the brain. In this way, the total amount of calculation of the whole brain can be calculated, and the information can be processed to the power of 10/4 per second. You might say that the human brain has some more advanced functions than vision, and it may be more computationally intensive than this. Ok, let's multiply it by 1000 times, which is 10 to the seventh power. At best, this computing power is enough. So what is the computing power of computers today? It has reached the power of 10/5. What is the concept of this 15 power of 10? That is to say, the top computer is almost 1% of the computing power of the human brain, but it has Moore's Law, so it is 1% this year, 50% next year and 25% the year after. In seven or eight years at most, the computing power of the computer will be completely consistent with that of the human brain.
And don't forget, this Moore's Law also says that the price is halved every year. Then by 2020, a computer costing $65,438+0,000 pounds will have exceeded the computing power of human beings. By 2030, it is equivalent to 1000 times of human computing power. This is also the reason why Kurzweil dares to boldly predict that mankind will reach the singularity in 2045. Maybe you will say that we humans are creative, but computers are not. It's just a product that we produce and serve. We can do whatever we want, so even if it is better than our computing power 1000 times, it is nothing. You see, we don't count as fast as calculators now, so what? Is it still our tool? So there's nothing to be afraid of.
This view may have existed a few years ago, but it may have been questioned in the past two years. For example, from 20 16, Google's AlphaGo began to challenge human chess players, and they all lost from Li Shishi to Ke Jie. This incident shows that we feel that creative Go has been captured by computers.
For another example, in recent years, self-driving cars have been heated up. Many people think that only humans can drive cars, and computers can't replace people. How complicated this thing is, it needs people to deal with all kinds of emergencies. How to operate a computer in a car that can only execute instructions mechanically? But now everything has changed, and self-driving cars are on the road. Even artistic creation is being occupied by artificial intelligence. Before we listen to a book every day, we talked about the book A Brief History of the Future. In the book, we talked about an example. It is said that a professor from a conservatory of music in the United States wrote an artificial intelligence program, which will write more than 5,000 classical music in one night, all imitating the style of musician Bach, and then take it to the concert for everyone to listen to. No one doubts that this is a machine-made part. So, how can you think that human beings have something that machines can't replace?
Then why can a seemingly cold computer do such complicated things instead of human beings? It is precisely because of the way the human brain works that it is essentially no different from a computer. You might say, we have emotions, but robots don't. But scientifically speaking, emotions are nothing more than some electronic activities in the cerebral cortex. We are angry only because we secrete a little chemical hormone and have a chemical reaction, which leads to some electronic activities and stimulates a certain area of the cerebral cortex. So the computer simulation is over? It will also be angry, it also has emotions, it can also produce love, it can also produce memories. All of these, computers can be imitated by programs, and people's computing power is thousands of times that of you. To put it bluntly, it can completely imitate you and be more like you than yourself.
In the final analysis, the greatest advantage of our human thinking is the so-called self-organizing function. You can think of Jay Chou when you see nunchakus, and you can connect different images in series, which other animals didn't have in the past. This makes us the spirit of all things, standing at the top of the earth's biological chain. But it's different now. How did your brain think of Jay Chou from nunchakus? Modern science can know how you establish contact and what electronic activities have taken place through MRI. It's simple. As long as you imitate it with a software, the computer can think of Jay Chou when it sees nunchakus, so the computer can also write a good poem and a good song by using its own associative ability.
AlphaGo can beat Li Shishi because of its self-organizing function. It can summarize the rules according to hundreds of thousands of chess games, which is a rational summary. If it has enough computing power, it can also sum up some emotions, and it will be angry, tearful and anxious when it sees anything. Self-organizing ability is just an algorithm, which can be mastered not only by human beings, but also by computers. In this way, there is no difference between people and computers. Everyone is a set of algorithms, but the computer is a more efficient algorithm.
the third part
This is the second point of this book. Physical humans are just a set of algorithms. Finally, let's take a look. After humans reach the singularity, the algorithm intelligence is highly developed, and we can quickly rule the whole universe.
Since human beings are not as certain as computers, there is an ultimate philosophical question: where is the future of human beings? Will it be destroyed by robots like Hollywood movies? This is a particularly grand topic, which needs to be interpreted bit by bit. In the book Singularity Approaching, Kurzweil put forward a unique world view. He believes that human history can be divided into six stages, and the efficiency of information transmission in each stage is greatly improved than that in the previous stage.
For example, the first stage is the physical and chemical stage. At this point, the world is lifeless. It is inefficient to exchange and transmit some information through physical and chemical reactions. So in the early days of the earth, it may take tens of thousands of years, and there will be no big changes.
The second stage is the biological and DNA stage. With life, information begins to be transmitted through DNA, and the efficiency of information transmission is greatly improved. So with life, the earth has become full of vitality, and the environment of the earth has also undergone tremendous changes. This shows that DNA is much faster than physical chemistry in transmitting information.
The third stage is the human brain. The appearance of man is very recent, but it was 50 thousand years ago, but since the appearance of man, the amount of information on the earth has increased unprecedentedly, and the whole earth has been changed by human beings
The fourth stage is the so-called artificial intelligence era. Today, artificial intelligence can defeat Ke Jie, but it is impossible for two Ke Jie to fight together next year and four Ke Jie to fight together the year after next. This is the efficiency of artificial intelligence in processing information, which is increasing exponentially. The human brain has not evolved much in hundreds of thousands of years, and the primitive brain is basically no different from our modern brain. But computers are different. In the 1950s and 1960s, a computer occupied several rooms. Today we have a notebook, which is at least 10,000 times stronger than the computer at that time. The computer used by Apollo to land on the moon has only one thousandth of the computing power of iPhone4. Our information processing ability is growing exponentially. With this exponential growth, we need a powerful tool to maintain this growth. Obviously, artificial intelligence is a better tool than the human brain.
The fifth stage is the combination of human intelligence and artificial intelligence, which is the so-called era of man-machine civilization.
The sixth and final stage is called cosmic awakening, and human wisdom will occupy the universe.
Obviously, as far as the six stages of Kurtz welty are concerned, the first three stages are easy for us to understand. After all, it's history. The fourth stage of artificial intelligence has arrived, and we have gradually felt it. It's not hard to imagine. What does the combination of human intelligence and artificial intelligence mean in the fifth stage? What does the awakening of the universe mean in the sixth stage?
As we said earlier, Kurzweil believes that with the continuous enhancement of computer power, it will reach thousands of times of human computing power by 2030. Then, at this time, we can transfer the data in the brain to the computer. Then our feelings, pain, cognition, including our rational thinking and so on, will all survive in the computer. As long as this algorithm continues, we are still alive, but we no longer rely on the present body. To put it more bluntly, we can build a more suitable body and input human algorithms. Although this person's physical appearance is completely different from the original you, your thinking, consciousness, memory, understanding and preference are all in this new body, so you are still you. If this day comes, in Kurzweil's words, it is the singularity coming. On this day, human history will be completely changed.
Many people may find it incredible. Is it possible? Kuzweil said that gene technology, nano-robot technology and artificial intelligence technology have now been fully integrated, which has promoted human beings to accelerate exponential growth and move closer to singularity. Take nano-robot technology as an example. Nano-robot is a robot composed of several molecules. With nano-robots, we can imagine how much our human body will change in the future. For example, this person has anemia, incomplete red blood cells and insufficient oxygen carrying capacity, so he always feels suffocated and cannot transport nutrients in many parts of his body. It's very simple now. Nano-robots can be easily imported into blood vessels. A robot carries eight oxygen molecules and sends them to your lungs. Therefore, if we implant millions of nano robots into our blood vessels, we will no longer need red blood cells and blood.
Of course, you don't need lungs very much. The function of the lungs is nothing more than inhaling oxygen and exhaling carbon dioxide. You let the nano-robot directly bring in oxygen molecules from the outside, send them to all parts of your body, and then bring out carbon dioxide, so that you don't need to breathe, and our lungs become furnishings. You don't need to eat. It's too troublesome to eat. You eat something in your stomach, which breaks it down for you, and then it enters your intestines. Then the intestine is responsible for absorbing the nutrients in the middle, and the rest is stool, and then it is discharged. This process is inefficient and prone to illness. It's very simple now. Nano-robots bring nutrients directly to where you need them, so you don't need to eat any more. In Kurzweil's words, with nano-robots, human beings have become human 3.0.
If so, death does not exist. Why? Because you actually become software and stored in the computer, your body is sick. Well, throw it away. We just change it into a human body 3.0 and copy the data, and you are a new you. So when will this day come? Kurzweil speculates that in 2045, when the singularity comes, our history will be rewritten. Then if one day, human beings realize eternal life through software, we can explore the universe.
How can we explore the universe? Kurzweil gave us a very simple solution. At that time, people had been digitized, and all data algorithms about people were stored in computers, so interstellar travel became very easy. Let's launch nano-robots to other planets first.
Our technology at that time should be able to travel at the speed of light. If our technology can pass through wormholes, the speed of nano-robots to other planets will even exceed the speed of light. After getting there, nano-robots can constantly replicate themselves, and the replication speed is exponential. Even if it replicates itself 1 time within 1 second, 2 seconds will become 4, 3 seconds will become 8, and a human body 3.0 will be created in a minute or two at most. At this time, the computer will transmit the data about you in the computer at the speed of light, where it will be input into Human Body 3.0, which means that you have traveled from the earth to other planets and completed an interstellar trip. In this way, after about a thousand years, we can occupy the whole universe. In Kurzweil's words, this is the sixth stage, and human wisdom will eventually awaken the universe, which is also the ultimate destination of mankind.
abstract
At this point, the contents of this book are all completed. Finally, let's look back. By reading the book Singularity Approaching, we first know that technology is growing exponentially due to Moore's Law, and we are getting closer and closer to the limit of technology, that is, singularity. This process is likely to be realized in 2045. Then, we find that with the development of technology, the human body will be gradually replaced by machines, because the human body is just a set of algorithms, and the data processing ability of computers is more powerful than human algorithms. Finally, we said that the destination of human beings is self-digitization, realizing the combination of man and machine. Man-machine combination will make mankind gain unprecedented interstellar ability, and eventually human intelligence will occupy the universe.