Second generation: extinction probability = 2( 1-p)p, survival probability = 2 (1-p) (1-p) = 2 (1-p)? Survival = 2*2( 1-p)? =2? ( 1-p)？ ;
Generation 3: extinction probability = 2*2( 1-p)? p=2？ ( 1-p)？ P, survival probability =2? ( 1-p)？ ( 1-p)=2？ ( 1-p)？ Survival = 2*2? ( 1-p)？ =2? ( 1-p)？ ;
Generation 4: Extinction probability = 2*2? ( 1-p)？ p=2？ ( 1-p)？ P, survival probability = 2? ( 1-p)？ ( 1-p)=2？ (1-p) 4. Survival =2*2? ( 1-p)^4=2^4( 1-p)^4；
Generation n: extinction probability = [2 (n-1)] * [(1-p) (n-1)] * p, survival probability = [2 (n-1)] * [(65433)
If p is set to 0.5( 1/2), the problem is easy to understand. (and p= 1/2 is the key point).
P= 1/2, then, after one hour, half will be extinct, and the surviving half will be split in two, with the same number as before; Another hour passed, and it was still the same; Because 2n (1-p) n = 2n * (1/2) n =1.
When p≥ 1/2, these viruses will never be completely extinct.
When P < 1/2, this group of viruses will gradually decrease and eventually become extinct.