Numerical weather forecast model is a method to simulate the future weather by using mathematical models and a large number of observation data. By collecting meteorological data and meteorological phenomena and inputting them into numerical models, the future meteorological changes are calculated by using physical and mathematical equations. These models can predict various meteorological phenomena, such as temperature, wind speed, precipitation, clouds and so on.
Satellites can provide the global weather conditions of the earth, and the changes of meteorological phenomena such as clouds, wind direction and wind speed can be observed through satellite images, so as to predict the future weather conditions.
Meteorological radar can observe meteorological phenomena, such as precipitation, clouds and wind speed, by emitting electromagnetic waves. By observing the electromagnetic wave signals returned by weather radar, we can judge the intensity, position and shape of meteorological phenomena, and then predict the future weather conditions.
Accuracy of weather forecast
On February 2, 2002165438+,at the press conference held by China Meteorological Bureau, Jin Ronghua, deputy director of the forecast and network department of China Meteorological Bureau, said that in terms of forecast accuracy, the forecast accuracy of 24-hour sunny rain in China reached 86%, the forecast accuracy of the highest and lowest temperatures reached 82% and 84% respectively, the forecast accuracy of rainstorm reached 89%, and the warning time of severe convective weather reached 38 minutes.
Meteorological science belongs to prediction science and has certain uncertainty. In addition, not every region has detailed monitoring stations, and the weather forecast is random. For example, in summer, strong convective weather occurs frequently, and due to factors such as topography, there is more local precipitation. At this time, the possibility of prediction error will increase. Based on the current level of science and technology, the accuracy of weather forecast can not reach 100%, but the meteorological department will try its best to improve the accuracy of forecast.