The source of the channel is real estate demand, which leads to the increase of real estate price, which leads to the increase of real estate investment, which in turn leads to the increase of investment prices of building materials and other industries, which in turn leads to the increase of raw materials, fuel and power prices and investment growth in these industries, which leads to the accelerated increase of fixed assets investment and prices step by step.
In the above chain, restraining the excessive growth of real estate demand is the most important macro-control task. The loan tightening policy of real estate development can only limit the supply of real estate, but can't restrain the demand of real estate. Therefore, it will only aggravate the imbalance of the real estate market, promote the further rise of real estate prices, cause a lot of potential investment demand, and bring huge losses to residents' welfare. Investment tightening policies in steel, electrolytic aluminum and cement industries will also have the same consequences. Because the investment in these industries is induced investment, and because of the increase in real estate investment, the prices of steel, electrolytic aluminum and cement have risen. If we curb the growth of real estate investment and urban infrastructure investment, market forces will naturally curb the investment growth of these industries, while if we do not curb the growth of real estate investment, tightening the investment growth of these industries will only bring greater imbalance, greater price increases and investment impulses.
In view of the above analysis and the current macroeconomic situation, it is suggested to take macro-control measures to curb the demand of the real estate market in order to avoid the continuous rise of real estate prices and the resulting investment growth pressure. At the same time, we will relax investment control in steel, electrolytic aluminum and cement industries, and continue to support investment in fuel and electric power industries, so as to ensure that there will still be enough investment growth in 2005 to stimulate overall economic growth, and at the same time provide enough investment for future urban construction and real estate investment.
One way to curb the demand for real estate is to raise the mortgage interest rate. However, raising interest rates will not only curb new demand, but also have a greater impact on residents who have already borrowed money to buy a house, increase their repayment pressure, reduce their spending power and affect the stability of consumer demand. The purpose of regulation is to curb the new demand in the real estate market. Therefore, raising interest rates is not the most ideal method.
Another way to curb real estate demand is to increase the down payment ratio. This way of raising the threshold for residents to buy houses can not only curb new demand, but also will not affect buyers. At the same time, increasing the down payment ratio will not increase residents' actual purchase expenditure, nor will it really reduce residents' purchase ability, but only delay the time when residents have the purchase ability. So it can be used as a policy to smooth the demand for real estate.