First of all, the classification of the three kingdoms killing cards. There are 108 "Three Kingdoms Kill One * *", of which 30 are killings (2 1 black killings, 9 red killings, 70% black killings), 15 flashes (all red), 8 peaches (all red), 6 kick down the ladder and 5 shoplifting. Equipped with ***20 pieces (60% black), including+1-1horse, 1 1 weapon (2 crossbows of Zhuge Lian, others1), and 3 pieces of armor (2 pieces of eight diagrams, 1. Tip:? A) Be happy: make a decision at the decision-making stage. If it is not the suit of hearts, it will take effect and skip the stage of playing cards. At this point, all the skills and cards played at the stage of playing cards cannot be started or used. ? B) lightning: making decisions at the decision-making stage. If it is Spades 2-9, the character will be damaged by the three-point lightning attribute and discard the lightning; Otherwise, the card will be moved to the decision-making area of the next family. ? C) Grain cut: make a decision in the decision-making stage, and it will take effect if it is not a plum blossom suit, and skip the card-touching stage. At this time, the skills that started in the card-touching stage can't be started, such as heroes and naked clothes. ? 2. Equipment: Eight Diagrams Array: If the card is judged to be red, it is regarded as flashing. ? 3. Military commanders' skills: a) Ma Chao-Tieqi: At the stage of playing cards, the horse is judged after exceeding the specified target. If it is red, the target can't flash and hit directly. B) God Guan Yu-Wu Soul: At the time of death, it is judged by the person with the most nightmare marks. The target is not sworn as a peach or a peach garden, and dies directly. C) Original-Luoshen: The judgment is made at the beginning of the turn. If it is black, put the judgment card in your hand and continue to judge. If it is red, the judgment card will be discarded and judgment cannot be continued. D) Xia Houdun-Heroic: After being injured, it is judged that if it is not the heart, the source of the injury needs to be slightly injured or both hands should be discarded. E) Opening Angle-Lightning Strike: After the opening angle flashes, it flashes in a fixed frame and makes any role judgment. If the card is spades, the target will be damaged by two lightning attributes. F) Wen Chou and Yan Liang-Shuangxiong: In the card-touching stage, give up the card-touching and make a judgment. The judgment card can be contained in the hand, and the hand with a different color from the judgment card can be used as a duel in this round. G) Wargo-Tuntian: Every time you lose your hand outside the turn, you can make a judgment, and then you can put the judgment card that is not a heart on your military commander's card and call it "Tian". Every "day" means that the distance between you and any character is-1. H) Cai Wenji-Elegy: After any character is killed and hit, you can discard a card for the character to judge. Judgment result: Spades: the damage source military commander flop (skip the next round); Hearts: The character recovers 1 physical strength; Plum blossom: the damage source discards 2 cards; Box: The character touches 2 cards. ? 4. Military commanders who have obtained trial cards: Guo Jia-Tianjiu: Guo Jia's trial cards can be accepted as hand cards. ? 5. The changed military commander: a) Sima Yi-a ghost: You can use any hand instead of the trial card. B) Opening Angle-Ghost Road: You can replace the judgment card with any card (hand equipment can be used), and the previous judgment card will be included in your hand. C) Wang Yizhen lies: Before your judgment card takes effect, you can turn the top card over and replace the original judgment card. ? 6. A military commander who skips or particularly affects judgment? A) Xiao Qiao-Hong Yan: All cards of your spades suit are regarded as hearts suit (lightning, lightning strike will never work for Xiao Qiao). B) Open your jaw-clever change: You can discard a card and skip one of your stages (except the beginning and end of the turn). Skipping the card-touching stage, 1-2 characters can get 1 card. If you skip the stage of playing cards, you can move a card in one character's equipment area or judgment area to the same position in another character. (The judgment stage can be skipped or moved, such as being too happy to miss home, too short of food, lightning, etc. ). c) Zhuge Liang, Jiang Wei-Stargazing: At the beginning of your turn, you can watch the X cards on the top of the pile (X is the number of players on the field, no more than 5), adjust the order at will, and put them on the top or bottom of the pile in a certain order. Then, if there are several unique signs, such as "I don't think about it", "I can't afford it" and "lightning", I will judge. ? So how to judge everyone must be familiar with the judgment process. When making a judgment, first show the top card from the top of the pile, and then ask the generals who can change their judgment in turn from the current role whether to change their judgment. After the inquiry, judge whether the card is valid or not according to the color, points and purpose of the current card, and then settle the account, and then the card enters the discard pile. ? Ok, let's get into formal mathematical analysis (just pretend! ): ? 1. What is the probability of being struck by lightning? As we all know, lightning will deduct three blood, and the silver lion will only split one blood. The decision card of lightning is 2-9 of spades, and the target is random, but when it is split, it will cry and the chains will be connected. ? First of all, lightning's judgment card is 2-9 of spades. In the 108 card of standard card +EX card, there are eight diagrams of spades 2, men's and women's swords and ice swords, kicking off the bridge to steal spades 3, kicking off the bridge to steal spades 4, the ghost of spades 5 and the dragon crescent moon blade, and the green steel sword of spades 6. There is a *** 17 decision card. Therefore, the probability of a person being struck by lightning when opening the decision board is17/108 =15.74%. If it is an eight-player game, the probability of lightning is the same for everyone on the field, which is 1/8 = 65438+. So if lightning appears, how long will it stay in the sky? For an eight-man team, if Sima Yihe's commutation, Xiao Qiao's beauty, the quickness of summer and other factors are not taken into account, the probability that lightning won't hit people once a week is (1-15.74%) 8 = 25.41%,then the probability that lightning will hit people is/kloc-0. It's just a detour In other words, lightning rarely stays on the court for a week without hurting people, unless the players have a lot of referee cards in their hands or in the equipment area, otherwise it is really a blessing. For individuals, we can sum up a formula: the probability that you are struck by lightning for the nth time is (1-15.74%) n-1*15.74%. As can be seen from this formula, the probability of being directly killed for the first time is the highest, and then gradually. You should know that your situation is very dangerous. The probability of not being hit when waiting for the fourth judgment is (1- 15.74%) 4 = 50.4%, which means that the probability of not being hit for four consecutive times is only half. (Note: What we are talking about here is not being hit four times in a row, and the judgment of being hit for the nth time mentioned above are two completely different concepts. Because lightning also shakes people's heads three times, just like your situation. I think this is the interesting thing about lightning. The more time you put in, the more exciting it becomes. Just like wine, the older it gets, the better it gets.