The rate is 0.05, and the flood probability e799be5BaA6E997ae7Ad94E78988E698331333238653838 is 0.05. A construction site located by the river has drawn up three disposal plans for its large-scale construction equipment:
(1), and the freight is 1.5 million yuan.
(2) To repair the dam for protection, it is necessary to pay a dam repair fee of 50,000 yuan.
(3) No preventive measures are taken and no cost is required.
If the scheme of (1) is adopted, no matter what happens, it will not suffer losses; If Scheme (2) is adopted, only in case of flood, the equipment will lose 4 million yuan due to dam break; If Scheme (3) is adopted, there will be no loss when there is a flat water level, 2 million yuan for some equipment when there is a high water level and 4 million yuan for equipment when there is a flood. According to the above conditions, choose the best decision-making scheme.
Solution: We use mathematical expectations to judge the pros and cons of the solution:
Shipped away-15
No flood 0.95 -5
A-15 dam maintenance b
Flood 0.05 -405
Pingshui 0.9 0
C high water 0.05 -200
Flood 0.05 -400
E(A)=- 15
E(B)=0.95×(-5)+0.05×(-405)= -25
e(C)= 0×0.75+(-200)×0.05+0.05×(-400)=-30
so-E(a)