Econometrics is an economic discipline based on certain economic theories and statistical data, using mathematics, statistical methods and computer technology, and establishing econometric models as the main means to quantitatively analyze and study the relationship between economic variables with random characteristics. The main contents include theoretical econometrics and applied econometrics.
Theoretical econometrics mainly studies how to use, transform and develop mathematical statistics methods to make them a special method to measure economic relations. Applied econometrics is to study the practicability of economic mathematical models or explore empirical economic laws with econometric methods under the guidance of certain economic theories and based on statistical data reflecting facts.
trait
Model type: random model is adopted. Model orientation: establish a model based on economic theory. Model structure: the relationship between variables is linear or can become linear, which belongs to causal analysis model, explaining that variables have the same status and the model has clear forms and parameters.
Data type: take time series data or cross-sectional data as samples, and the explained variables are continuous random variables that obey normal distribution. Estimation method: only use sample information, and use least square method or maximum likelihood method to estimate variables. Non-classical econometrics generally refers to the econometric theories, methods and application models developed after 1970s, also known as modern econometrics.
develop
Foreign development. At first, econometrics was mainly used for microeconomic analysis. After the appearance of macroeconomic theory, its application in macroeconomics has developed rapidly. At the same time, the appearance and rapid development of computers further promoted the development of econometrics, especially in the early 1960s and 1980s, which can be said to be the fastest-growing field of western economics. Of course, there are some problems.
Compared with the world powers, the development and application of econometrics in China is relatively late. In the past 30 years, econometrics has been widely used in China, and its development in China has experienced a transitional stage from China planned economy system to socialist market economy system. During this period, China's statistical system also experienced the transformation from the material balance table system to the national economic accounting system. In the early 1990s, Engel's ARCH model was extended to China as "the frontier of modern economics".
Combined with China's emphasis on economy, it has a great impact on the development and future trend of econometrics in China, and also puts forward new challenges and opportunities for the sustained and sustainable development of its discipline. In recent years, econometrics has been gradually popularized and paid attention to in China, and the literature on its application and subject research has been extensive and common.
Econometric models such as economic time series, Pop theory, VAR model, CC model and LSE model have also become the most extensive econometric modeling methods in the field of economic research in China. At the same time, some scholars have begun to use the internationally advanced DSGE model, which has been widely used in many application research fields in China and achieved certain results.