title of a book
econometrics
Is also called
econometrics
member of
Economics discipline
research direction
The relationship between economic variables with random characteristics
way
Mathematical economics and mathematical statistics
quick
navigate by water/air
trait
develop
research objects
learning method
Theoretical econometrics and its application? econometrics
trend
brief introduction
Econometrics is a branch of economics based on mathematical economics and statistics, which attempts to solve economic problems by integrating theoretical quantitative methods and empirical quantitative methods.
With the emergence of this branch, economics can only study economic phenomena qualitatively in the past and expand to a new stage where quantitative analysis can be carried out at the same time.
"Metrology" means "quantitative research by statistical methods", so the word "quantity" should be pronounced as "[liàng]" instead of "[liáng]".
It is said that in economics, the history of applying mathematical methods can be traced back to the publication of william petty's Political Arithmetic (1676) more than 300 years ago.
Fundamentals of econometrics
The term "econometrics" was put forward by Norwegian economist Frish in 1926, imitating the term "biostatistics". Subsequently, 1930 International Econometrics Society was established, and 1933 Journal of Econometrics was founded.
How should people understand the meaning of "econometrics"? Frish said in his inaugural address of econometrics: "There are several ways to discuss economics by mathematical methods, but none of them can be confused with econometrics. Econometrics and economic statistics are by no means the same thing; It is also different from what we call general economic theory, although most economic theories have certain quantitative characteristics; Econometrics should not be regarded as synonymous with the application of mathematics to economics. Experience shows that statistics, economic theory and mathematics are all necessary but not sufficient conditions to truly understand the quantitative relationship in modern economic life. The combination of the three has power, and this combination constitutes econometrics. "
Later, Klein, a famous American econometric economist, also believed that econometrics was a synthesis of mathematics, statistical technology and economic analysis. It can also be said that econometrics not only refers to the measurement of economic phenomena, but also shows that it refers to the measurement according to certain economic theories.
The foundation of econometrics is a set of econometric methods based on mathematical statistics theory, which belongs to the "hardware" of econometrics. There are two main uses or purposes of econometrics:
Theoretical test. This is the most important and reliable aspect of econometrics. This is also a main content of econometrics itself.
Predictive application. Judging from the ultimate goal of theoretical research and methods, forecasting (including policy evaluation) is of course the ultimate task of econometrics, and we must pay attention to learning and understanding, but we should pay more attention to the reliability or effectiveness of its forecasting.
trait
Model type: random model is adopted. Model orientation: establish a model based on economic theory. Model structure: the relationship between variables is linear or can become linear, which belongs to causal analysis model, explaining that variables have the same status and the model has clear forms and parameters. Data type: take time series data or cross-sectional data as samples, and the explained variables are continuous random variables that obey normal distribution. Estimation method: only use sample information, and use least square method or maximum likelihood method to estimate variables. Non-classical econometrics generally refers to the econometric theories, methods and application models developed after 1970s, also known as modern econometrics.