Notes on earnings expectation:
There are many mathematical models in the stock market and casinos, but please note that none of them can accurately predict the stock market. As the saying goes, 100 economists have10/0/theory, and each theory can only analyze the trend of the stock market afterwards and predict the stock market to some extent.
So no matter what strategy you adopt, you will lose. Here, we need to use the game theory developed by 20th century mathematicians von Neumann and john nash.