Question B: Comprehensive evaluation of water resources shortage risk

Water resources refer to natural water bodies that can be directly utilized by human beings and can be continuously renewed. It mainly includes surface water and groundwater on land.

Risk refers to the combination of the possibility and consequences of a specific dangerous situation.

Water shortage risk generally refers to the possibility of water shortage in regional water resources system and the losses caused by it due to the uncertainty of incoming water and water use under specific time and space environmental conditions.

In recent years, the shortage of water resources in China, especially in the northern region, has become increasingly serious, and water resources have become a focus topic.

Take Beijing as an example. Beijing is one of the metropolises that are seriously short of water. The per capita water resource is less than 300m3, which is 1/8 of the national average and 1/30 of the world average. This is an area that is seriously short of water. The data listed in the attached table shows the water shortage in Beijing from 65,438+0,979 to 2000. The shortage of water resources in Beijing has become the main factor affecting and restricting the social and economic development of the capital. The government has taken a series of measures, such as the construction of South-to-North Water Diversion Project, the establishment of sewage treatment plants and the adjustment of industrial structure. However, with the continuous development of climate change and economy and society, the risk of water shortage always exists. How to identify the main factors of water resources risk, classify the harm level caused by risk, and take corresponding effective measures to avoid risks or reduce the harm caused by different risk factors is of great significance to the implementation of social and economic stability and sustainable development strategy.

Beijing Statistical Yearbook 2009 and municipal statistical data provide relevant information about Beijing's water resources. Use these and other available materials to discuss the following issues:

1 What are the main risk factors for evaluating the risk of water shortage in Beijing?

There are many factors affecting water resources, such as climatic conditions, water conservancy facilities, industrial pollution, agricultural water use, management system and population size.

2. Establish a mathematical model, comprehensively evaluate the risk of water shortage in Beijing, classify the risk levels and explain the reasons. How to control the main risk factors to reduce risks?

3. Predict the risk of water shortage in Beijing in the next two years and put forward countermeasures.

4. Take Beijing water administrative department as the report object, and write a proposal report.

Attached Table1979-Water shortage in Beijing in 2000

Annual total water consumption (billion cubic meters) Agricultural water consumption (billion cubic meters) Industrial water consumption (billion cubic meters) Tertiary industry and other water consumption (billion cubic meters) Total water resources (billion cubic meters)

1979 42.92 24. 18 14.37 4.37 38.23

1980 50.54 3 1.83 13.77 4.94 26

198 1 48. 1 1 3 1.6 12.2 1 4.3 24

1982 47.22 28.8 1 13.89 4.52 36.6

1983 47.56 3 1.6 1 1.24 4.72 34.7

1984 40.05 2 1.84 14.376 4.0 17 39.3 1

1985 3 1.7 1 10. 12 17.2 4.39 38

1986 36.55 19.46 9.9 1 7. 18 27.03

1987 30.95 9.68 14.0 1 7.26 38.66

1988 42.43 2 1.99 14.04 6.4 39. 18

1989 44.64 24.42 13.77 6.45 2 1.55

1990 4 1. 12 2 1.74 12.34 7.04 35.86

199 1 42.03 22.7 1 1.9 7.43 42.29

1992 46.43 19.94 15.5 1 10.98 22.44

1993 45.22 20.35 15.28 9.59 19.67

1994 45.87 20.93 14.57 10.37 45.42

1995 44.88 19.33 13.78 1 1.77 30.34

1996 40.0 1 18.95 1 1.76 9.3 45.87

1997 40.32 18. 12 1 1. 1 1 1. 1 22.25

1998 40.43 17.39 10.84 12.2 37.7

1999 4 1.7 1 18.45 10.56 12.7 14.22

2000 40.4 16.49 10.52 13.39 16.86

Note: See Beijing Statistical Yearbook 2009 for data after 2000.

Shenzhen is also a city with serious water shortage in China. You can also study the risk of water shortage in Shenzhen, not Beijing.