Recently, affected by the COVID-19 epidemic, the United States suppressed China in an all-round way, the domestic prices of corn and wheat rose, the progress of summer grain purchase was slow, and some individuals misunderstood to stop food waste. All sectors of society paid special attention to food security. So, what is the current food security situation in China? This is the first thing to be clarified.
From the perspective of grain supply and demand, the overall judgment can be said in two sentences: first, the total amount is basically balanced, and second, the structural contradictions are prominent. In terms of varieties, both wheat and rice can be used as rations to ensure absolute safety. From the relationship between production and demand, the annual consumption of wheat in China is about 240-250 billion Jin, and the average output in recent three years is 260-270 billion Jin.
The annual consumption of rice is about 400 billion Jin, and the average output in the past three years is 420 billion Jin.
From the inventory point of view, the national wheat and rice stocks are sufficient, and the wheat stocks are enough for one year's expenditure and the rice stocks are enough for eight months, ensuring that there is no problem in market supply. Soybeans have always been imported. In 20 19, more soybeans were imported from Brazil and Argentina. After China and the United States signed the first-phase trade agreement, they have resumed importing from the United States.
What needs special attention now is corn. We say that the structural contradiction between grain supply and demand is prominent, and at present it mainly refers to corn.
The relationship between supply and demand of corn is changing from surplus to shortage in previous years. Four years ago, China's corn stock was as high as 250 million tons, which obviously exceeded the demand. In order to solve the problem that supply exceeds demand in stages, in 20 16, the state cancelled the temporary purchasing and storage policy of corn, and at the same time reduced the corn planting area in the "Sickle Bay" area, and the corn output declined for four consecutive years.
At the same time, the corn processing and conversion market is active, the feed industry has changed from weak to strong, and the overall starch processing has expanded, especially the corn fuel ethanol processing and conversion capacity has expanded rapidly. Driven by the change in the relationship between production and demand, the speed of corn destocking is faster than expected.
With the expansion of the gap between production and demand and the decline of inventory, the market price of corn in Northeast China, North China and South China has increased from 1700~ 1800 yuan/ton at the end of 20 19 to 2,200 ~ 2,400 yuan/ton since 2020. Due to the rising price of corn and the upside-down price of corn and wheat, some feed enterprises prefer to purchase wheat as raw materials, which also promotes the rise of wheat prices.
The slow progress in purchasing summer grain this year is directly related to farmers' reluctance to sell.
The above situation has attracted great attention of relevant departments and measures are being taken. It should be said that there are foundations and conditions for doing a good job in corn supply and price guarantee at present.
In 2020, the national corn planting area was 623 million mu, an increase of 0.6% over 20 19. Although the yield will be affected by typhoons and grassland borers, the impact is limited. It is estimated that this year's corn output will be basically flat on the basis of last year's increase.
Recently, in order to ensure the market supply and ensure the import of enough corn. In addition, the State Reserve and relevant state departments have begun to control the pace of expansion and transformation of corn fuel ethanol production capacity. It is expected that the supply and demand of corn will return to balance, and the price of corn will start to stabilize recently.