1. Definition: technology-driven pension industry
Intelligent pension refers to the integrated application of information technologies and products such as health care electronics, Internet of Things, cloud computing, big data and mobile Internet. , collect physical signs, home environment and other data, realize the information interconnection and analysis among families, community medical institutions, health care institutions and professional medical institutions, and provide intelligent, personalized and diversified products and services to meet the increasingly urgent needs of the people for health care.
According to the classification of "Promotion Catalogue of Smart Health Medical Products and Services (2020 Edition)" jointly issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Civil Affairs and National Health Commission, China's smart health medical products mainly include wearable health management equipment, portable health monitoring equipment, self-service health testing equipment, intelligent nursing equipment and home robots.
2. Industry chain analysis: The industry chain is long, among which smart devices are the biggest part that distinguishes traditional pension.
Intelligent pension industry chain is long, involving many industries, and its smooth development needs the cooperation of government, enterprises, society, community, family and other forces. In recent years, the government has increased its support for related technology enterprises and smart pension products and services through various preferential policies such as purchasing services and site support. At the same time, through various ways such as service outsourcing, we will cooperate with service intermediaries, big data enterprises, Internet enterprises, relevant social organizations and research institutions to give full play to the professional advantages of various pension institutions and carry out collaborative innovation.
According to prospective analysis, in addition to nursing staff training and pension finance, there are technologies such as Internet of Things, big data, cloud computing and artificial intelligence service providers, as well as components suppliers such as chips and sensors, communication modules and middleware suppliers such as information sensors.
The middle reaches of the industrial chain are all kinds of smart pension products and services, among which smart devices are the biggest difference from traditional pension. There are three demand markets for old-age care downstream: home-based care, community-based care and institutional care.
Industry development process: the industry is in a stage of rapid development.
Intelligent pension was first put forward by British Life Trust Fund, which is called "intelligent pension system". It refers to breaking the traditional pension mode and being limited by time and space, integrating all service participants with the help of modern technology, and forming an organic whole through Internet of Things platforms such as government, community and medical institutions, so as to improve the quality of pension services.
The domestic smart pension industry started relatively late. In 2007, Hu Liming, vice president of Intelligent Building Branch of China Construction Industry Association, published "New Digital Home Care Community Solution" and proposed "Digital Care for the Aged". 20 10, academic circles began to use the concept of "information-based pension"; 20 1 1 the concept of "supporting the elderly through science and technology" appeared; In 20 12, the national office for the aged first put forward the concept of "intelligent pension". The incubation period of the industry is about 20 15-20 17. During this period, laws, regulations, policies, standards, innovation system and credible trading environment will be gradually established, and many enterprises will continue to innovate. 20 18-2020 will be the promotion period of the industry. During this period, various enterprises adapted to the smart pension industry were basically established, innovative smart pension service models emerged constantly, and the investment and financing market was very active. The important turning point of the development of smart pension industry is around 202 1 year. After 202 1, it is expected that the smart pension industry will enter a stage of rapid development.
Industry policy background: policy-driven, intelligent pension began to rise to the national strategic level.
Under the background of the aging population, the central government has continuously introduced relevant policies to promote intelligent old-age care. 2011/in September 7, the State Council released the 12th Five-Year Plan for the Development of China's Aging Cause, proposing to speed up the construction of home-based care service information system, do a good job in the pilot work of home-based care service information platform, and gradually expand the pilot scope.
Since then, the words "informatization construction of the aged care service industry" have been mentioned in several policies, such as Several Opinions on Accelerating the Development of the Aged Care Service Industry and Implementation Opinions on Encouraging Private Capital to Participate in the Development of the Aged Care Service Industry.
In 20 13, the National Committee on Aging established the "National Expert Committee on Intelligent Pension" to guide the intelligent pension service and industrial development in China. In 20 15, the State Council issued "Guiding Opinions on Actively Promoting internet plus Action", which clearly put forward the target and task of "promoting the development of smart and healthy pension industry".
The Action Plan for the Development of Smart and Healthy Pension Industry (20 17-2020) released on 2017 proposes to speed up the development of smart and healthy pension industry, basically form a smart and healthy pension industry system covering the whole life cycle by 2020, establish more than 100 demonstration bases for the application of smart and healthy pension, and cultivate/KLOC. These favorable policies and information mean that smart pension has begun to rise to the national strategic level.
Current situation of industry development
1, China will step into deep aging, and the "silver-haired economy" will flourish.
-The trend of population aging is developing.
In recent years, the degree of population aging in China has risen rapidly. By the end of 2020, China's elderly population over 60 years old was about 264.02 million, accounting for 18.7%. The State Council's National Population Development Plan (20 16-2030) released in June 20 17 mentioned that the proportion of people over 60 years old will reach about 25% in 2030. China's accelerated entry into an aging society has provided a huge potential consumer market for the elderly.
By the end of 2020, the population aged 0- 14 was 253.38 million, accounting for17.95%; /kloc-894.38 million people aged 0/5-59, accounting for 63.35%; The population aged 60 and over is 264.02 million, accounting for 65.438+08.70% (among them, the population aged 65 and over190.64 million, accounting for 65.438+03.50%). Compared with 20 10, the proportion of people aged 0- 14, 15-59 and over 60 increased by 1.35 percentage points, decreased by 6.79 percentage points and increased by 5.44 percentage points respectively. The proportion of children in China has rebounded, and the adjustment of birth policy has achieved positive results. At the same time, the degree of population aging is further deepened, and it will continue to face the pressure of long-term balanced population development in the future.
-The consumption demand of the elderly population is considerable.
According to the survey of the national middle-aged and elderly network, 45% of the elderly in China have savings deposits. In 20 16 years, the balance of elderly deposits exceeded 17 trillion yuan, and the per capita deposit was nearly 80,000 yuan. According to preliminary statistics, the total pension for the elderly will exceed 7 trillion yuan in 2020. From 2065438 to 2006, the market demand of China's health care industry for the aged was more than 5 trillion yuan. However, according to incomplete estimates, the products provided for the elderly in 20 16 will be 500 billion to 700 billion yuan, and the demand will continue to be strong, but the effective supply is insufficient. With the increasing supply of health care industry, the market consumption demand of China elderly health care industry will reach about 20 trillion yuan in 2030.
2. Analysis of China's smart pension industry model;
-China's pension model-"9073" model
The "9073" model was first put forward by Shanghai in the 11th Five-Year Plan, that is, 90% of the elderly are taken care of by their families, 7% enjoy community home-based aged care services and 3% enjoy institutional aged care services.
Referring to Japanese and American experiences, it gives China a lot of enlightenment in the aspects of payment system and pension construction. Considering the current situation in China, the future home-based pension mode will become the mainstream trend, and community pension and institutional pension will become important supplements.
-home-based, community-based, and institution-based.
In home-based care for the aged, smart devices and technology products are the assistance of family members. As home-based care for the aged is the main service mode for the aged in China at present, the demand for home-based care for the aged is huge, and the demand for smart home-based care products is huge. However, the smart home-based care industry, which aims at home-based care for the elderly, has a low threshold and a high possibility of commercialization success, and is easy to drive the entire industrial chain, so it is in a priority position.
China's pension industry is based on home, supported by community and supported by institutions. The three models complement each other and influence each other.
Industry competition pattern
1. Regional competition: The well-developed pilot projects are mainly concentrated in developed areas such as Beijing, Shandong and Shanghai.
It can be seen from the four batches of 168 smart healthy old-age demonstration enterprises announced by three ministries and commissions that most provinces in China have launched smart old-age pilot projects, but these pilots are generally concentrated in cities rather than rural areas, and the well-developed pilots are mainly concentrated in developed areas such as Beijing, Shandong and Shanghai. The development of smart old-age care in the central and western regions is characterized by a late start and a low level.
2. Enterprise competition: Information technology companies account for the highest proportion.
Four batches of 168 smart and healthy old-age demonstration enterprises announced by the three ministries and commissions of the state, including 60 information technology companies and 35 medical technology companies, account for half of the whole market.
Among the smart and healthy pension demonstration enterprises, information technology companies account for the highest proportion, reaching 36%, mainly because information technology companies have the following advantages: (1) strong independent research and development capabilities provide a strong driving force for enterprises to continue to innovate; (2) Rich information resources to provide professional and high-quality intelligent services for the aged care industry; (3) Mature products, services and systems for the aged can be popularized and operated in the market; (4) The operation mode and profit mode are clear, and sustainable development is basically realized.
3. Product competition: Intelligent detection equipment has the largest number of finalists
In September 2020, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Civil Affairs, and the National Health and Wellness Commission formulated the Promotion Catalogue of Smart and Healthy Aged Care Products and Services (2020 Edition), in which 1 18 products were shortlisted in the promotion catalogue of smart and healthy aged care products, with 20 sub-categories, including intelligent detection equipment and ECG.
Industry development prospect and trend forecast
1, the "Tenth Five-Year Plan" construction continued to promote industrial upgrading and promote the integrated development of medical care.
With the acceleration of population aging in China, the smart pension industry will actively carry out industrial transformation and upgrading from the perspectives of enabling aging products and transforming aging products through science and technology. Science and technology aging products will use new technologies such as artificial intelligence to break the isolated island state of medical services and promote the combination of medical care and nursing.
2. During the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, it is expected that the government will continue to improve industrial policies and vigorously develop the robot industry for the elderly.
The formulation and implementation of policies will help to build a sound old-age service system and old-age security system, and a sound old-age service system and system will help promote the healthy development of the old-age industry. 202 1 mentioned speeding up the development of intelligent old-age robots to solve the shortage of old-age resources.
Intelligent old-age robot is one of the ways to solve the structural contradiction between the increasing demand for old-age services and the continuous shortage of professional service talents. Intelligent old-age products have the characteristics of rich functions, safety, reliability and long service life. In addition, the emergence of intelligent old-age robots can alleviate the shortage of nursing professionals and provide better professional nursing services such as daily nursing and rehabilitation training for the disabled and semi-disabled elderly. It can be seen that the multifunctional pension robot with broad market space will be the most representative high-tech product to solve the dilemma of the aged care service for the disabled elderly in the future.
—— The above data refer to the Analysis Report on Market Prospect Forecast and Investment Strategic Planning of China Smart Pension Industry by Forward-looking Industry Research Institute.