Main listed companies in the industry: SAIC (600 104. SH), Weilai -SW(09866. Hong Kong), Li (020 15. HK)、Xpeng Motors (09868。 HK), Guangzhou Automobile Group (60 1238. SH) and BYD.
The core data of this paper: production and marketing scale, competition pattern and penetration rate.
definition
According to the National Economic Industry Classification (GB/T 4754-20 17), new energy vehicles refer to vehicles that are completely or mainly driven by new energy, including plug-in hybrid (including extended range) vehicles, pure electric vehicles and fuel cell electric vehicles. The new energy automobile industry refers to the collection of enterprises engaged in new energy automobile manufacturing.
According to the field of energy supply and application, new energy vehicles can be divided into the following two categories:
2. Industrial chain analysis: large enterprises have realized backward integration layout.
From the perspective of industrial chain, the upstream of the industrial chain of new energy vehicles mainly includes the supply of core raw materials and parts such as batteries, motors and electronic controls; Midstream refers to the manufacture of new energy vehicles, which can be divided into passenger cars and commercial vehicles according to their uses; Downstream includes new energy vehicle charging service, new energy vehicle aftermarket service and other application fields.
Judging from the participating enterprises in the upstream and downstream industrial chains of the new energy automobile industry, the upstream enterprises include raw material suppliers such as Ganfeng Lithium Industry and Huayou Cobalt Industry, as well as core component suppliers such as Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. and Dayang Electric. The new energy automobile manufacturers in the middle reaches mainly include domestic enterprises such as BYD and SAIC, as well as foreign manufacturers such as Tesla and BMW. Downstream mainly includes new energy vehicle charging and aftermarket service providers such as State Grid and SAIC-GM. Large enterprises, such as BYD, have achieved backward integration layout.
Industrial development course
During the eighth five-year plan period, the government began to organize relevant departments to carry out research and development of electric vehicles and key components; Subsequently, electric vehicles were included in national key projects. After a series of planning, 20 1 1 began the pilot work of new energy vehicles, from pilot to comprehensive. At present, China's new energy automobile industry is in the transition stage, from "policy-oriented market" to "market-oriented market".
Industry policy background
The policy planning of new energy automobile industry in China involves car purchase subsidy policy, energy saving and emission reduction policy, and supporting industrial policy of battery charging piles. Some of them are summarized as follows:
The rapid development of new energy vehicles in China has injected new kinetic energy into the world economic development. In June, 2020, the State Council issued "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (202 1-2035)", pointing out that developing new energy vehicles is the only way for China to move from a big automobile country to a strong automobile country, and it is a strategic measure to cope with climate change and promote green development. By 2025, the competitiveness of China's new energy vehicle market will be significantly enhanced, and major breakthroughs will be made in key technologies such as power batteries, drive motors and vehicle operating systems, and the safety level will be comprehensively improved. The average power consumption of new electric passenger cars dropped to 12.0kWh/ 100km, and the sales of new energy vehicles reached about 20% of the total sales of new cars. Highly self-driving cars have been commercialized in limited areas and specific scenes, and the convenience of charging and replacing electricity services has been significantly improved.
Present situation of industrial development
1, the supply and demand level of new energy vehicles is relatively balanced.
Thanks to preferential policies, China's new energy vehicle market has developed rapidly since 20 14, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles have increased substantially; Then at 20 16 and 20 17, they were deceived to make up for the retrogression, and the growth rate of production and sales slowed down. By 20021,the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles will be finalized, and the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles will be further reduced by 20% on the basis of 2020. According to the statistics of China Automobile Industry Association, the domestic output of new energy vehicles in 202/KLOC-0 was 3.545 million, up 159.5% year-on-year. The explosive growth of the output of 202 1 new energy vehicles is mainly due to the transformation of the new energy vehicle market from policy-driven to market-driven, showing a good development trend of both market scale and development quality. In 2022, new energy vehicles will no longer enjoy the subsidy policy, which is one of the reasons why enterprises will increase productivity in 20021.
According to the statistics of China Automobile Industry Association, the sales of new energy vehicles in China exploded in 20021year, reaching 352 1 10,000 vehicles, up 157.6% year-on-year. From 20 12 to 202 1 year, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China increased from 20 12 to 202 1000, achieving a leap-forward development. It can be seen that the consumption demand of China consumers for new energy vehicles is increasing year by year.
From 2012 to 2020, the production and sales rate of new energy vehicles in China fluctuated, ranging from 95%- 103%, and fluctuated slightly within a reasonable range, indicating that the overall supply and demand of new energy vehicles in China were relatively balanced. In 202 1 year, the production and sales rate of new energy vehicles in China was 99%.
2. The export volume of new energy vehicles has increased substantially.
20 17-202 1, the import scale of new energy vehicles in China is expanding. In 202 1 year, new energy vehicles were imported143,700 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 10.03%.
Note: The statistical caliber of new energy vehicles of the General Administration of Customs includes hybrid buses (10 and above), pure electric buses (10 and above), plug-in hybrid passenger cars, plug-in hybrid passenger cars and pure electric passenger cars.
From 20 17 to 20 19, the export scale of new energy vehicles in China showed an upward trend year by year. In 2020, the export of new energy vehicles was 222,900, down12.5% year-on-year; In 20021year, the export volume and export volume of new energy vehicles in China increased significantly, with a cumulative export of 554,600 vehicles, up 148.8% year-on-year. In terms of export volume, the export volume of new energy vehicles in China in 20021year was $65.438+00858 billion, a year-on-year increase of 236%.
From 20 17 to 2020, China's new energy imports are greater than its exports, and it is in a state of trade deficit. In 20021year, China's new energy vehicle exports exceeded imports for the first time, and the trade deficit turned into a surplus.
3. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles has risen rapidly.
With the gradual development of new energy vehicle industry, private purchase of new energy vehicles began in China in 20 14, which also opened the first year of new energy vehicles in China. In 20 15, the country entered the year of rapid growth of new energy automobile industry. In 20 15438+0 1 year, the proportion of production and sales of new energy vehicles in the whole automobile industry in China exceeded 1% for the first time, and China also became the largest new energy vehicle market in the world in this year. According to the latest data released by China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China (the proportion of national new energy vehicle sales to the total national automobile sales) reached 13.4% in 2026+0, a substantial increase compared with 2020.
Industry competition pattern
1, regional competition pattern
According to the enterprise query data, the registered enterprises of new energy vehicles in China are mainly distributed in Guangdong Province. Followed by Jiangsu, Shandong and other coastal provinces and cities; The number of new energy automobile enterprises in Zhejiang, Anhui, Henan and Hubei is also large.
Note: The darker the color, the more enterprises there are. Data as of September 2022, 14.
Judging from the regional distribution of listed companies in the new energy automobile industry, Guangdong Province has the largest number of listed companies in the new energy automobile industry, including Guangzhou Automobile Group (60 1238. SH), BYD (002594. SZ) and Xpeng Motors (09868. HK)。 There are also many listed companies in the new energy automobile industry in Jiangsu Province, including Yaxing Bus (6002 13. SH) and Wei Lai -SW(09866. HK), Jianghuai Automobile (6004 18. SH), An Kai Bus (000868. SZ) and Anhui Hanma Technology.
Note: The darker the color, the more enterprises there are.
2, enterprise competition pattern
According to the statistics of the Federation, BYD Co., Ltd. ranked first in the retail sales of passenger cars of new energy automobile enterprises in China in 20021year, and the retail sales of new energy vehicles reached 584,000 in 20021year; Followed by SAIC-GM-Wuling, achieving retail sales of 436,5438+065,438+00,000 vehicles; The third place is Tesla China, with a retail volume of 320,700 vehicles. Other companies are ranked as follows:
Industry development prospect and trend forecast
1, policy retreats and competition intensifies.
With the delisting of China's new energy policy subsidies, the market has entered a transitional stage, and the future trend of China's new energy automobile industry is as follows:
2. In the future, the sales volume of the new energy automobile industry will be close to 8 million.
From June 5438 to October 2020 10, the State Council issued the New Energy Automobile Industry Development Plan (202 1-2035), which clearly stated that by 2025, the sales volume of new energy vehicles would account for about 20%. According to the prediction of China Automobile Industry Association, the automobile sales in China will reach 30 million in 2025. On this basis, combined with the market situation of new energy vehicles in recent years, it is predicted that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China will reach 4.02 million in 2022 and 7.83 million in 2027.
For more research and analysis of this industry, please refer to the Analysis Report on Market Foresight and Investment Strategic Planning of China New Energy Automobile Industry by Forward-looking Industry Research Institute.