I. Risk management
Risk management is a systematic process of managing all kinds of risks undertaken by an organization to achieve its established goals, and its methods should meet the requirements of public interests, personal safety, environmental protection and relevant laws and regulations. Risk management includes planning, organization, leadership, coordination and control.
Second, the workflow of project risk management
The risk management process includes project risk identification, project risk assessment, project risk response and project risk control in the whole process of project implementation.
1. Project risk identification
The task of project risk identification is to identify risks existing in the process of project implementation, and its working procedures include:
(1) Collect project risk related information;
(2) Determine the risk factors;
(3) Prepare the project risk identification report.
2. Project risk assessment
Project risk assessment includes the following tasks:
(1) Analyze the probability of occurrence of various risk factors by using existing data (mainly historical data about similar project risks) and relevant professional methods;
(2) Analyze the losses of various risks, including the possible loss of construction period and expenses, and the impact on the quality, function and use effect of the project;
(3) according to the probability and loss of various risks, determine the risk amount and risk level of various risks.
3. Project risk response
Common risk countermeasures include risk avoidance, mitigation, retention, transfer and their combinations. For uncontrollable risks, insurance with insurance companies is a risk transfer measure. Project risk response refers to the risk response to project risk countermeasures.
Project risk countermeasures should form a risk management plan, including:
(1) Risk management objectives;
(2) Risk management scope;
(3) Available risk management methods, tools and data sources;
(4) Risk classification and risk ranking requirements;
(5) Responsibilities and authority of risk management.
(6) Risk tracking requirements.
(7) The corresponding resource budget.
4. Project risk control
In the process of project progress, we should collect and analyze all kinds of information related to risks, predict possible risks, monitor them and give early warning.
Question 2: How to control and manage project risks? The risk management of engineering projects is still in its infancy, and the research on risk analysis technology and risk response is still immature. There are many aspects that need us to learn from the excellent analytical concepts and processing methods of advanced enterprises in developed countries systematically and scientifically. 1, and put forward the idea of comprehensive risk management of engineering projects. Total risk management is to control risks in a systematic and dynamic way and reduce the uncertainty in the process of project implementation. It not only enables project managers at all levels to establish risk awareness, pay attention to risk issues and nip in the bud, but also implements effective risk control at all stages and links to form a coherent management process.
The overall risk management of engineering projects is divided into four stages: project risk prediction and identification, evaluation and analysis, response and control and monitoring. This should be a complex and dynamic process and should be managed under a series of strategic objectives. These strategic goals will also change as the environment changes. In such a fluid and flexible environment, we need an overall risk management idea based on strategic objectives, that is, risk management should be regarded as integrated with other project management activities, which should run through the whole life cycle and every activity of the project and help to achieve the strategic objectives of the project. This puts forward the idea of comprehensive risk management.
2. Prediction and identification of project risks
2. 1 engineering risk classification
Engineering risks are diverse and complex, and some risks are usually interrelated. Engineering risks are usually as follows: political and legal risks, social and cultural risks, economic risks, natural and environmental risks, technical risks, management and organization coordination risks, contract risks and safety, health and environmental risks.
2.2 methods of risk identification
There are many methods to predict and identify project risks. At present, Delphi method, brainstorming method and scenario analysis method are commonly used. The theory and method of project risk prediction and identification are still far from perfect and need further study.
3. Evaluation and analysis of project risk
3. 1 risk assessment and analysis steps of engineering project
First, determine the project risk assessment benchmark. The project risk assessment benchmark is the acceptable level determined by the project subject for different project risk consequences. The evaluation benchmark should be determined for individual risk and overall risk, which are called individual evaluation benchmark and overall evaluation benchmark respectively. The objectives of the project are various: short time, maximum profit, minimum cost and minimum risk loss. These goals can be quantified and become evaluation benchmarks. Then determine the project risk level. These include individual risk level and overall risk level. After synthesizing all risk events, determine the overall risk level of the project. In order to determine the overall risk level of the project, it is necessary to list the influences of relationships, interactions and transformation factors on these interactions. In addition, the method of determining the risk level should be compatible with the principles and methods of determining the evaluation benchmark, so there is no comparability between them.
Finally, compare the single risk level of the project with the single evaluation benchmark, and compare the overall risk level with the overall evaluation benchmark to determine whether they are within the acceptable range, and then determine whether the project should stop or continue.
3.2 Project risk assessment and analysis methods
There are many methods for project risk assessment and analysis, such as Monte Carlo simulation method, program evaluation and review technique PERT (programmed review techniques), subjective probability method, utility theory, grey system theory, FTA(fault tree * * * analysis), extrapolation method, fuzzy analysis method and influence diagram analysis method.
4, project risk coping strategies
4. 1 risk avoidance strategy
Avoidance refers to a strategy of actively abandoning the project or changing the project objectives and action plans to avoid risks when the potential threat of project risks is too great and the adverse consequences are too serious, and no other strategies are available. If it is found through risk analysis that the implementation of the project will face great threats, and the project manager team has no good way to control the risks, or even the insurance company refuses to underwrite because the risks are too great, then it is necessary to consider the risk avoidance strategy.
Risk avoidance strategy is the most thorough risk management measure, because it reduces the probability of risk events to zero, but it is also the most negative measure, because it avoids risks and at the same time loses ...
Question 3: How to plan risk management in IT projects? Risk management planning is the consideration, analysis and planning of the project based on risk before or at the beginning stage of the project, and it is also the most critical content in project risk control. Risk assessment Risk assessment is based on basic information such as project plan, project budget and project progress. , and focus on defining the project objectives, strategies, tactics and means and resources to achieve the project objectives. So as to realize: from the perspective of risk, examine the project plan to understand the project situation, reveal some hidden project premises and assumptions, and let the project manager identify some risks in the early stage of the project. In particular, project proposal, feasibility report or project plan are generally completed on the basis of several assumptions, premises and predictions, which may or may not be established in the process of project implementation. And hidden risks are usually ignored. Once there is a problem, it will often lead to the project manager being caught off guard and having no countermeasures. For example, in the project plan, IT is assumed that the user implementation team will fully support or almost participate in the implementation of IT projects, but in the actual process, the user personnel have to spend a lot of time dealing with the existing business, resulting in the delay of the implementation progress of IT projects and the risk of unsatisfactory implementation results. There are many such examples. In order to find out these hidden project conditions and threats, it is necessary to conduct a detailed review of various plans related to the project, such as human resources plan, contract management plan, project procurement plan and so on. It can be concluded that risk situation assessment should generally focus on the following contents: reasons, purposes, scope, the relationship between organizational objectives and project objectives, project contributions, project conditions, constraints and so on. 2 Risk Identification Based on the assessment of the basic risk status of the project, it is necessary to identify various exposed and potential risks. Risk identification is actually a kind of assumption and speculation about possible risk events in the future. Therefore, the general risk identification results should include the classification, source, performance and consequences of risks, as well as related project management requirements. When identifying risks in detail, on the one hand, we can use some common sense, experience and judgment, through the data, information, experience and lessons accumulated in previous projects, or consult relevant experts and senior practitioners, and adopt the way of collective discussion. On the other hand, we can identify risks by decomposing the scope and structure of the project, and make clear the composition of the project, the nature of each component, their relationship and the relationship with external factors, thus reducing the uncertainty in the process of project implementation. In addition, some technologies and tools can be used. For example, in combination with experience and lessons, the reasons for the success or failure of the project are listed, or the scope of project implementation, quality control, project progress, procurement and contract management, human resources and communication, etc. The above are some commonly used means and methods of risk identification. Of course, there are many other ways, which vary from project to project and can be used flexibly. III. Risk Analysis and Assessment After identifying and sorting out risks, it is necessary to analyze and evaluate the impact of various risks on the whole project. Usually, these evaluations are based on feature judgment and research based on data statistics. There are many methods of risk analysis, such as probability, distribution frequency and average. But no matter what kind of tool, it has its own advantages and disadvantages, and it will inevitably be influenced by the analyst's subjective. It can be avoided by multi-angle and multi-person analysis or brainstorming. In addition, we should be clear that risk is a constantly changing thing, and it is impossible to make a very accurate and reliable prediction and analysis based on this changing situation. All risk analysis has only one purpose, that is, to try to avoid out-of-control projects and reserve enough backup measures and buffer space for unexpected problems in the implementation of specific projects. After risk assessment, the project faces two choices, namely unbearable risk and tolerable risk. For the former, either terminate the project or take remedial measures to reduce risks or change the project; For the latter, risk control is needed in the project.
Question 4: How to manage the risk of project financing? Any financing behavior may bring risks. Because of improper financing, it took only nine months for the famous Taizi Milk to start financing and close down its business. Small and medium-sized enterprises are no exception, and they may face various risks in the process of financing, especially in the situation of tight financial regulation this year, financing risks can be said to exist in all kinds of enterprises. The financing risk of small and medium-sized enterprises mainly refers to the risks encountered by small and medium-sized enterprises due to the influence of various uncertain factors in the financing process. Professor Zhang, an investment and financing expert, summed up the following financing risks based on years of investment and financing experience:
1. Financing risks caused by national economic policies
Generally speaking, because the production and operation of small and medium-sized enterprises are extremely unstable, changes in a country's economic and financial policies may have a certain impact on its production and operation, market environment and financing situation. If small and medium-sized enterprises can't make keen response and timely adjustment according to the changes of national economic and financial policies, it will bring certain risks to the financing of small and medium-sized enterprises, and then affect their development. For example, in industries restricted by national industrial policies, the risks of direct financing and indirect financing are great. If the enterprise can't get the normal capital supply, it will be difficult for the enterprise to continue. Another example is that during the tight monetary policy, the supply of funds in the market has decreased, which has affected the risk of SMEs financing through the market. Either the capital cannot be raised, or the financing cost increases and the financing quantity decreases, which directly affects the continuity of the capital chain of enterprises and further increases the operating risks of small and medium-sized enterprises. According to Professor Zhang, an investment and financing expert, this year, a large number of enterprises have encountered this situation. It is difficult for enterprises to operate without financing, and the high financing cost makes it difficult for enterprises to operate freely.
2. Financing risk caused by unstable operation SMEs are highly dependent on the external economic environment. Therefore, in addition to being sensitive to the national industrial and financial policies, the arrangement of the national economic system, the changes in the macro-and micro-economic environment and the intensification of industry competition will also increase the operational risks of small and medium-sized enterprises and ultimately affect their operation and development. Small and medium-sized enterprises with poor management or poor sales channels, or lack of competitive strength or difficulty in spreading risks are often the first to be impacted by the market. However, the increase of business risks undermines the stability of small and medium-sized enterprises, making it more difficult to meet the conditions of market financing and financing more difficult.
3. The low level of financing risk management caused by low management level is mainly manifested in the backward management concept of small and medium-sized enterprises, lack of basic internal management and weak management links, generally low quality of personnel, insufficient research on potential market demand, limited technical force for product development, and lack of foresight on market trends. Due to various defects in management, small and medium-sized enterprises lack stamina. High opening rate and high rejection rate are the main characteristics of small and medium-sized enterprises, which makes commercial financial institutions very cautious. In China, the elimination rate of small and medium-sized enterprises in five years is nearly 70%, and about 30% of small enterprises are in a state of loss, only about 30% have growth potential, and about 70% have weak development ability, and only 1% can survive for more than ten years. Therefore, small and medium-sized enterprises will face many financing obstacles, whether it is direct financing or indirect financing, and the financing risk is often great.
4. The financing risk caused by the credit crisis The lack of credit for small and medium-sized enterprises is a common phenomenon. Some small and medium-sized enterprises have untrue accounting information, false financial accounting, empty funds and chaotic accounting, and some small and medium-sized enterprises have fled funds, defaulted on accounts and maliciously evaded taxes, all of which have affected the image of small and medium-sized enterprises to some extent. Compared with large enterprises, a lot of information is open and easy to obtain at a very low cost. The information of small and medium-sized enterprises is basically internalized and opaque, and it is difficult for investors such as banks and financial institutions to obtain it through general channels. Therefore, if banks want to provide loans to small and medium-sized enterprises, or investors want to invest in small and medium-sized enterprises, they have to increase the input of human resources and improve the quality of information collection and analysis. On the one hand, it increases the loan and investment costs of banks or investors, on the other hand, it also brings difficulties to the financing of small and medium-sized enterprises, and there is great uncertainty in the financing of small and medium-sized enterprises.
1, the "incubation period" of financing risk The warning sign of identifying the "incubation period" of financing risk refers to the warning sign that reflects the size of financing risk and whether it will bring financial crisis on the basis of a large number of data analysis. This information includes two aspects: first, the information of enterprise internal management; The second is the industry information of the external market associated with the enterprise. The financing risk in the incubation period is mainly the control risk of enterprises on financing activities, which is mainly reflected in enterprises ... & gt
Question 5: Risk management Risk control methods exist objectively. Any enterprise is faced with internal or external risks, which will affect the realization of enterprise goals. Therefore, enterprise managers must carry out risk management, so how to do enterprise risk management well? 1. Improve risk management awareness. In business activities, enterprise managers should undertake projects according to their own abilities, conduct a pre-evaluation system for the projects undertaken, and try their best to avoid and abandon the risky projects confirmed after evaluation. How many projects are accepted by as many people as possible, effectively avoiding the risk of being easily punished because of insufficient personnel, unqualified personnel and reduced qualifications. In addition, don't blindly expand the scale, so that all projects can be within the effective management scope of enterprise managers, effectively avoiding the risks brought by inadequate enterprise management. 2 enterprises should adopt standardized management mode as far as possible, and formulate standardized rules and regulations and post responsibility system. Boss magazine said that enterprise managers should also formulate detailed and targeted supervision implementation rules and risk management plans for each specific project according to their own characteristics and work contents involving supervision risks, so that all projects of the enterprise can do a good job in supervision according to unified working procedures, requirements and standards, and correctly perform various duties of supervision, thus realizing. 3, enterprise managers should establish a relatively perfect supervision and inspection mechanism, dynamic management. Leaders and business departments at all levels of enterprises should often go to the project for inspection and guidance, strengthen communication with the owners, listen to the opinions of the owners, and timely convey various new laws and regulations, changes in internal and external situations, requirements of enterprises and owners, etc. Reflect to the project supervision personnel, and find out the shortcomings of the project supervision organization in time during the inspection. Enterprise managers should deal with the hidden risks of the project in time to make them disappear in the bud and avoid the occurrence of risk accidents. 4. Set up an emergency public relations team to deal with emergencies comprehensively. In order to strengthen the management and response to emergencies, it is absolutely necessary for enterprise managers to establish a well-trained, capable and efficient public relations team for emergencies. Its members should include personnel from the top decision-making level, public relations department, production department, marketing department, technology research and development department, security department, human resources department and other relevant departments, as well as legal consultants, public relations experts and other professionals. Under normal circumstances, the emergency public relations team is responsible for monitoring the internal and external environment of the enterprise in real time, analyzing and discovering existing problems and hidden dangers on the basis of extensive information collection, making accurate predictions of possible emergencies, helping enterprise managers to formulate practical emergency preventive measures according to the predicted results, supervising and guiding the implementation of preventive measures, strengthening the management of emergency early warning mechanism, carrying out training for public relations personnel and all employees, and organizing emergency simulation drills. When an emergency happens, the emergency public relations team should play the role of the command center, including establishing an emergency control center, formulating an emergency plan, instigating the implementation of the plan, communicating with the media, controlling the spread and deterioration of the danger, weakening the adverse effects of the emergency, and resolving the public's doubts and hostility, so as to end the emergency as soon as possible.
Question 6: How to manage the risk of the project, give an example? Gaoya Technology's 8ManagePPM can automatically detect various system risks and their impacts, including project planning, cost, resources and quality risks, and can automatically infer the final impact according to the existing impacts. Project personnel can clearly know the seriousness of these risks if they are not managed in time and properly.
At the same time, it supports recording user-defined risks and tracking risks throughout. The system will automatically classify and evaluate each risk according to the probability of risk occurrence and the influence degree of risk before and after taking action, so that project personnel can determine effective schemes to avoid risks more quickly and effectively.
Question 7: What are the risk management processes in project management? (1) Develop a risk management plan: define how to implement project risk management activities.
(2) Risk identification: Determine which risks will affect the project and record its characteristics.
(3) Qualitative analysis of risks: evaluate and comprehensively analyze the probability and impact of risks, and prioritize risks, thus providing a basis for subsequent analysis or action.
(4) Quantitative analysis of risks: Quantitative analysis of the impact of identified risks on the overall objectives of the project.
(5) Preparation of risk response plan: According to the project objectives, formulate plans and measures to improve opportunities and reduce threats.
(6) Risk monitoring: In the whole project, risks should be planned, tracked, residual risks monitored, new risks identified and risk process effectiveness evaluated.
Question 8: What is the risk management procedure of the construction project? ① Risk identification: refers to the systematic classification and comprehensive identification of potential risks that have not yet occurred and various risks that exist objectively by risk managers after collecting data and investigation. The main contents of risk identification: the main factors causing the risk, the nature of the risk and the possible consequences of the risk. Main results of risk identification: risk list ② Risk analysis and evaluation: Based on qualitative identification of risk factors, further analysis and evaluation are made on the probability of occurrence, scope of influence, possible loss and overall impact of various risk factors on project objectives. Task of risk analysis and assessment Risk analysis and assessment methods: Qualitative and quantitative methods are usually used to complete the decision of risk response strategies: it is a process of determining the best combination of countermeasures for project risk events. IV Countermeasures ④ Implementation of risk countermeasures: further implement the decision into specific plans and measures. ⑤ Monitoring the implementation of risk countermeasures: it refers to tracking the identified risks, identifying new risks, ensuring the implementation of risk countermeasures and evaluating the effectiveness of risk countermeasures and measures during the project implementation. Objective: To evaluate the actual effect of various risk control measures, determine the degree of risk reduction, monitor the change of risk, and then consider whether it is necessary to adjust the risk management plan and start corresponding emergency measures.
Question 9: How to effectively control project risks? There is no calculation formula. Risk management is generally to identify, analyze and deal with the risks in the project on a regular basis, that is, to find out the risks existing in the current project, analyze the possibility of risks and their impact on the project, and deal with the risks, that is, to come up with countermeasures to avoid risks or mitigate the impact blog. eduol/...
Question 10: Risk identification of project risk management includes two aspects: 1. Determine which risks may affect the project schedule and record all aspects of specific risks. Risk identification is not a one-off behavior, and should run through the whole project regularly. 2. Risk identification includes identifying internal risks and external risks. Intrinsic risks refer to risks that the project team can control and influence, such as personnel appointment and removal, cost estimation, etc. External risks refer to risks beyond the control and influence of the project team, such as market turning or * * * behavior. Strictly speaking, risk only refers to the possibility of causing trauma and loss, but for the project, risk identification also involves opportunity selection (positive cost) and negative factor threat (negative result). Project risk identification should be realized by identifying the causes and consequences (what will happen and what will lead to), or by identifying the causes and consequences (what kind of consequences need to be avoided or urged and how to happen). Among the identified risks, the characteristics of the project products play a major decisive role. All products are like this, and the risk of products with mature production technology is much lower than that of products without innovation and invention. The risks associated with a project are usually described in terms of product cost and expected impact. Job analysis structure-non-traditional structural subdivision can often provide us with choices that we can't see in higher-level branch diagrams. Cost estimation and activity time estimation-unreasonable estimation and estimation based on limited information will generate more risks. Personnel planning-ensure that team members have unique work skills that are difficult to replace, or have other responsibilities to refine the division of labor among members. Necessary procurement management scheme-market conditions, such as slow-developing local economy, can usually provide options to reduce contract costs. Historical information about previous projects is particularly helpful for identifying potential risks of current projects. This kind of historical data can usually be obtained from the following channels: project data file-one or more organizations involved in a project usually keep records of past projects, which will be detailed enough to help identify risks. In fact, some team members keep such records. Business data-We can get historical information of business in many application fields. Experience and knowledge of the project team-members of the project team will remember the output and consumption of previous projects. Of course, the information collected in this way may be very useful, but it is not as reliable as the information recorded in file form. Checklists are generally prepared according to risk factors. Including the environment of the project, the output of other programs, the product or technical data of the project, the skills (or skills defects) of team members and other internal factors. Flowcharts can help project teams easily understand the causes and impacts of risks. Interviews with people involved in different projects are helpful for those risks that are not identified in the regular plan. Records of pre-project interviews are also available. Brainstorming, also known as intellectual stimulation, was first put forward by American creative scientist Osborne in 1939 and officially published in 1953. It is a process of creating a free meeting environment without criticism, so that participants can speak freely, communicate fully, inspire each other and produce a lot of creative opinions. Delphi method originated in the late 1940s, and was first used for forecasting by RAND Corporation of the United States, and then widely used. Delphi method, based on systematic procedures, adopts anonymous expression of opinions, that is, experts are not allowed to discuss with each other, there is no horizontal connection, and only communicate with investigators. After repeated consultation, induction and revision, the opinions of experts on the questions raised in the questionnaire are finally summarized into the basically consistent opinions of experts as the prediction results.