As a leading enterprise in the real estate industry, Vanke's statement is "shocking" and many colleagues think Vanke is "stupid". Leading enterprises are discussing how to survive. As small and medium-sized enterprises in the real estate industry, how should they survive?
Now, three years later, I never thought that Yu Liang's words had become a prophecy. Second-hand housing transactions quickly turned cold, and house prices could not continue to rise sharply, which has become common sense. At present, buying a house is not buying assets, but buying liabilities!
China's real estate is a pillar industry of the economy. Once, every 1 yuan invested in real estate could boost 8.2 yuan's GDP. Even if China's GDP can turn from negative to positive in 2020, real estate investment will increase substantially against the trend.
Therefore, many people think that China's economic growth and rising housing prices are highly bound. As long as China's economy needs to grow, house prices will never fall. The real estate bull market that has lasted for 20 years will continue to prosper.
Based on this, many individual investors, real estate speculators and think tanks of Evergrande have made big problems in judging the trend of the property market. They gambled that house prices would continue to rise, but they didn't expect the top management to be so determined to "live and not speculate".
With the promulgation of the "three red lines" and the housing guidance price, the property market regulation policy has not eased at all, but has entered the deep water area.
In August this year alone, 42 housing enterprises in China declared bankruptcy, and this trend began to spread to the housing enterprises in TOP50. Evergrande, with the highest debt of 1.95 trillion, also panicked and hurriedly sold its assets to protect itself.
Since last year, Evergrande has counted 9 10 properties nationwide, including 6 13 properties in third-and fourth-tier cities, with a 7.5% discount, which is unprecedented, setting a historical precedent for the real estate industry.
The prices of the remaining 297 first-and second-tier cities, including Wuhan, the hardest hit area at that time, have not dropped at all, and even many properties in Shenzhen and Shanghai are still increasing in price.
Evergrande owns many high-quality assets, so why rush to sell real estate in third-and fourth-tier cities at bargain prices or even at a loss? Are the properties in these areas still worth investing or holding?
In fact, the current housing price is so high because the house has both residential and financial (investment) attributes.
With the tightening of property market policy regulation, the financial attributes of houses will gradually disappear. Only houses with residential properties are left, because the rental return rate in third-and fourth-tier cities is not high, so the value will be greatly reduced.
More importantly, because the process of urbanization is slowing down, the speed of rural population flowing into cities is slowing down, and the "pick-up man" is becoming more and more scarce. Most third-and fourth-tier cities will face the situation that housing supply exceeds demand.
The flow of population can be roughly divided into two types: the influx of rural population into towns and the migration between regions.
In particular, the migration of a large number of people from the north to the south is not only the transfer of productive labor, but also the transfer of family wealth and purchasing power. The population is floating GDP.
This means that the total GDP of population flowing into cities is increasing, the wealth created is accumulating, and the demand for housing is increasing, so house prices will have greater support.
This is the real reason why Shenzhen, Changsha, An and other cities continue to attract college students to settle in the local area with talent housing subsidy policies and settlement policies.
Take Chengdu as an example. In 202 1 year, the resident population of Chengdu was 20.938 million, and the population of other cities (states) under its jurisdiction was less than 6 million. Chengdu has a huge "siphon effect" on neighboring counties and cities, and talents are concentrated in big cities.
The economy of metropolitan area gathers population and wealth. Whether it is job opportunities, salary level, education, medical care, transportation environment, etc. Metropolis has an overwhelming advantage and it is natural for young people to yearn for big cities.
A realistic embarrassment is that economic growth has been unsatisfactory because of the net outflow of population in Northeast China all the year round.
Therefore, many college students who graduated from Qiqihar University and Jilin University can't find suitable internship positions in the local area, so they have to go to Beijing, Tianjin and other nearby big cities to find employment opportunities.
Students majoring in law, politics and law, IT, etc. You will find it difficult to find high-quality internship positions in third-and fourth-tier cities with average economy.
Even if it is found, the salary after formal work may not be satisfactory. I'm sorry I studied hard for four years. Few high flyers people want to live in third-and fourth-tier cities and lead an ordinary and monotonous working life.
It is almost the only way out for college students to choose to work in big cities, and only large enterprises can afford the wages of high-end talents. The average wage in third-and fourth-tier cities is around 3,000, so it is impossible to retain real talents.
Therefore, even if residents living in third-and fourth-tier cities do not go to work in big cities, their descendants may have to go to work in big cities. It is a very realistic problem that talent resources in third-and fourth-tier cities are "plundered" by big cities.
In the future urban pattern of China, there is a high probability that four metropolitan areas will gradually form, mainly Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Shanghai-Hangzhou-Suzhou, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao and Chengdu-Chongqing. The combined population and GDP of these cities will crush the sum of other cities.
This urban development trend has been a "lesson from the past", and some developed countries have experienced this process earlier.
Japan's mountainous national geography determines that there are not many areas suitable for human habitation. Among them, the population of Tokyo circle is 6.5438+0.35073 million, while the population of Tokyo Bay Area is 42 million, accounting for 654.38+0/3 of Japan's total population of 65.438+26 billion.
At the same time, Tokyo also has the largest railway transportation hub in the world, with the second largest number of headquarters of the world's top 500 enterprises,13 of Japanese universities and more than half of the country's university students, and its global resource advantage is second only to new york.
In 2020, affected by the epidemic, Japan's GDP shrank to $5.05 trillion, and Tokyo's urban GDP accounted for 1.52 trillion. The GDP of the entire Tokyo Bay metropolitan area accounts for more than half of the country.
The GDP created by a city in Tokyo is equivalent to the output of many countries in the world. The economic development achievements of this metropolitan area are all the coupling of capital, technology and talents, which are indispensable.
The price is a large outflow of people from small cities, towns and villages in most other parts of Japan. There are few young people in the village. Many lonely old people put "humanoid puppets" on the seats in the park for fear of loneliness!
Similarly, new york, Seoul, London, Paris and other international cities have similar characteristics.
Obviously, China is working hard in this direction, concentrating superior resources to build an urban economy.
This is doomed that the houses in the third-and fourth-tier cities have been excluded from the core assets by major smart funds and no longer have long-term investment value. Evergrande and major housing enterprises have taken the lead in selling properties in small and medium-sized cities at a discount, which has proved this point.
With the lock-in of second-hand housing liquidity, the financial attribute of housing will gradually lose and return to its unique residential attribute. Holding a house in a third-tier and below city will first face the risk that the house will depreciate and it will be difficult to get rid of it.