The total fertility rate in China is 1.3 in 2020 and 1. 1- 1.2 in 2026. It is generally believed in the world that every couple should have at least 2. 1 child in order to maintain the intergenerational balance of the population, because the number below 2. 1 is considered as a low fertility rate.
According to the demographic data, in 202 1 year, the population of China was1412.6 million, 480,000 more than in 2020. The annual birth population is10140,000, and the natural population growth rate is 0.34‰.
It seems a lot. The population has increased by 480,000 a year, but in fact this number will be much higher in the previous year, that is, in 2020. In 2020, the number of newly born people in China will be12.02 million, and the death population will be 9.98 million. The net increase in population is 2.04 million, but in just one year, this figure has become 420,000, which is quite a drop.
China has one of the lowest birth rates in the world, which is not alarmist. Among the countries with birth rate statistics, China has the second lowest birth rate, only a little higher than South Korea.
Japan, known as the "old age and few children", currently has a fertility rate of 1.34, which is a little more than ours.
At present, the average fertility rate in the world is 2.4 1, which means that every woman will give birth to 2.4 1 child on average. It is generally believed that a woman must have at least 2. 1 to keep the population base unchanged. Once the fertility rate is below 1.5, it will be very difficult to reverse the fertility rate. At present, it is 1 in China.
Some people say that the low fertility rate is related to the current epidemic situation, while others say that the low fertility rate is related to people's ideas, but I think the low fertility rate has a lot to do with the inability to have children.
Can't afford it, it is indeed an important reason.
Someone has calculated an account. Even in a small county, a child needs at least 400,000 yuan from birth to college graduation, and if it is in a first-tier city, this figure is likely to reach one million.
From pregnancy to delivery, examination, nutrition to surgery and other expenses, it costs 20 thousand.
Infant, milk powder, early education, new moon, etc. 50,000.
Childhood, kindergarten, diet, nursing, toys, entertainment, 65438+ million.
Primary school, specialty, tuition and fees, catering, entertainment, toys, 1.5 million.
Junior high school, tuition and fees, specialties, catering, entertainment, shopping, clothing, 1.2 million.
High school, counseling, specialties, catering, entertainment, clothing, shopping, commuting, 80 thousand.
During the university period, the tuition and miscellaneous fees for accommodation, entertainment, transportation, catering, entertainment and shopping were 6,543,800 yuan.
This is only a preliminary calculation. Although it can save a lot of money, parents born after 1980s and 1990s are willing to let their children lose at the starting line, and they spend a lot of money, especially in specialties, which are really expensive.
This is only about children. There are several reasons for the birth rate in our country.
First, housing.
The data of "2065438+2009 national 50 cities' housing price-income ratio" shows that the housing price in many areas is very high, which is far from the wage ratio of young people. For example, in Shenzhen, the ratio of house price to income is 35, which means that young people can buy a suite in Shenzhen without eating or drinking for 35 years. Like Shanghai and the capital, their ratio of house price to income is even lower, both of which are above 250,000.
High housing prices restrict marriage, and even if you get married, you dare not have children easily. The pressure is too great.
Second, children's education.
As mentioned earlier, here is another example to compare the school expenses of children.
According to statistics, raising an average child in Shanghai costs 800,000 yuan for education alone, not counting studying abroad after graduating from college. This figure is similar to raising children in Germany. According to the data of the German Federal Statistical Office, German families spend 7,000 to 8,000 euros on their children's education every year, and their children's education expenses are about 65,438+million euros, about 800,000 yuan.
It can be seen that although our two countries have different national conditions and do not invest much in education, our income is one quarter or one fifth less than others, so families will bear greater pressure.
Third, care.
The number of nurseries in China is very small, which is far from that in developed countries. According to 20 15 data, the enrollment rate of children under 3 years old in China is only 4%, far lower than 50% in developed countries.
There are few nurseries, which are basically kindergartens. Many kindergartens don't accept young infants, so they lack skills and teachers.
Children of this age are mainly brought up by their mothers. At present, maternity leave in China is mostly only a few months, mostly three to four months. Mothers have no time to raise and have no corresponding care, which is also one of the reasons for the low fertility rate.
Fourth, children born out of wedlock.
At present, there is a situation in the world where both men and women are unwilling to get married, but they are willing to have children. However, due to the traditional concept in China, this situation is not accepted at present, but the birth rate of children born out of wedlock all over the world has been obviously improved.
Take the European Union as an example. The proportion of children born out of wedlock in 20 16 is as high as 43%. The proportion of children born out of wedlock in France is as high as 60%.
A generation ago, the willingness to have children was still great, but now the willingness of young people in China to have children is very low.
But when the data arrived in China, Fudan University made an interview in 2020. The fertility desire of school-age youth is close to zero, and the overall average is only 1.6. You know, there is still a certain gap between ideal and reality, which also caused China to fall below 1% soon.
Seeing this, my friends may still think it doesn't matter, but in fact, the problem is very serious, because most families in China actually only have one child, but logically speaking, only when there are as many people who have four children as there are people who don't have four children, and there are as many people who have three children as there are people who have one child, can the average fertility rate be maintained at around 2. Now China is hovering around 1 all the year round, and its population is aging.
The World Health Organization divides the aging society into three stages: aging society, aging society and super-aging society. In contrast, the proportion of elderly people over 65 years old is 7%, 14%, 20%.
In 2020, the number of elderly people over 65 in China will be 1.9 1 100 million, accounting for 13.5% of the total population. According to 202 1 census data, the proportion of elderly people over 65 in China has successfully exceeded 14%, and it has officially entered an aging society.
According to the data analysis of relevant experts, China is likely to enter a super-aging society in 2035, with the proportion of elderly people over 65 exceeding 20%, which means that there are/kloc-0 elderly people over 65 in every five people.
There are more old people, fewer young people, less labor force, and the social burden, especially the burden of providing for the aged, will increase. Without young people, fewer people will pay pensions, and more elderly people will need pensions, which will eventually become "passive water" and make the "pool" of pensions more and more empty ...
The declining fertility rate in China is caused by many reasons, but in the final analysis, it has a lot to do with income.
However, when you are young, you still have to live if you have the ability, otherwise life will be much lonely when you are old, and many Dink families regret it when they are old.
Breakthrough 1? Lower? As for why? Ask an expert!
I estimate that the fertility rate will come up! When you get married, consider repaying the loan first, and the number is quite large. Who has the heart to have children?
I know a couple who are lawyers in Shanghai and graduated from Fudan University. They are both talented and beautiful. They have a daughter and the kindergarten is private. In September last year, Yaohao went to the first grade of Yifu Primary School. Their house is 50 square meters with two bedrooms, one living room, one kitchen and one bathroom. The dining room is not much wider than the corridor. The current market price of existing homes is less than 3 million. If you want to replace three rooms and two halls, you need at least a loan of 1 10,000.
Female lawyers also want to have a second child, preferably a boy. Children are small and can cope. Grown up, extra bed, no room. Adolescent children are not fit to sleep in the same bed. If there are old people, they can't turn around at home. After careful consideration, you can only give up.
They are also highly educated couples. Gave birth to a second child. Parents of both sexes take turns giving birth in kelp. Bullet your teeth and change to a big house of 130 square meters. In order to pay back the mortgage, the men in public institutions resolutely quit their jobs with a monthly salary of 20,000 and jumped to private enterprises with higher annual salary. The man's father and I know each other well and often lament that he is a paid nanny.
These outstanding talents, they all have the pressure of life, can afford to live, can't afford to raise, and the cost is unbearable.
For ordinary wage earners, fear of marriage Dink can be seen everywhere. Bridal bride price, car purchase, mortgage, wedding, without 2 million (third-tier cities), you can't get it.
The national fertility rate is declining year by year, and the external environment is very important. If young people have a house without a loan and a stable job and income, it is not a problem to have three or five children.
Now people live more and more realistically. To tell the truth, even an old woman like me thinks it is meaningless to raise children. Not to mention the money and energy paid, and a heart that can't be said for a lifetime. When I need someone to take care of me, I may not be able to count on her. Having a good figure is king. Many people worry about what to do with single people in the future. I think it's blind worry. Society will follow the trend of development. There are more single people, and the corresponding supporting facilities will be improved.
The main thing is that women really dare to take it now. Before, I went to repair the screen of my mobile phone. A man and a woman have just known each other for a long time. The woman asked the man to buy a mobile phone for more than 9,000 yuan, and the man said that he had only known him for a long time. Then the woman said, believe it or not, someone came to pay the bill, and then a sucker reluctantly paid it. The next day, I went to get my mobile phone and met the woman again, asking the shopkeeper to accept the one I bought yesterday for 8,000 yuan.
In fact, it is all caused by evil capitalism. The three mountains that are now weighing on the people are all the result of capital, and the serious involution is the result of cruel exploitation by capitalists.
The fertility rate exceeds 1.0, which fully shows that the family planning work has achieved great victory and brilliant results in the past 40 years. The decline in population has eased the pressure of employment, solved the big problem of more people and less food, and made everyone live a happy life.
Generally speaking, the more developed the economy, the more choices people have, and the fertility rate naturally drops slowly. However, with the blessing of high housing prices, this process has been greatly accelerated. We often say that China's economy has gone through western developed countries for hundreds of years. Similarly, in terms of fertility, we have gone through decades or even hundreds of years in western countries in just a few years, and the population structure is more serious than that in western countries. Typical decline first and then wealth.
In the last two years, the inspection of seamount traces by the Emergency Bureau has also made it difficult for enterprises to survive! Resulting in low income and unstable work. At the same time, housing, education, medical care and living expenses are high.