China Mobile Phone Market Survey Report

First, the current situation and development of the mobile phone market in China

1, overall market and development forecast

1) With the rapid development of mobile communication, the consumption demand of mobile phones is also increasing. In 200 1 year, the number of mobile phone users in China has reached 654.38+45 million, making it the largest market in the world. In the same period, Chinese mainland assembled 83.5 million mobile phones, of which 43.9 million were sold in the domestic market. By the end of June 2002, the total number of mobile phone users in China had reached 654.38+76 million, a cumulative increase of 365.438+35.7 million, up 50.9% year-on-year. China has been the country with the largest number of mobile users for a long time, and the number of mobile users has maintained a rapid growth momentum, with an average monthly increase of about 5 million (see figure 1). In terms of user types, the growth of users in 2002 continued to be dominated by low-end users, among which the proportion of prepaid users reached 24. 1%.

2) The growth of mobile phone users in China can be maintained at around 60 million in 2002, and will continue to increase at an annual rate of around 60 million in the next three years; The total output of mobile phones in China can reach 95 million, and will exceed 654.38 billion by 2003. Outlook of Electronic Industry: China Report: "By 2005, it is estimated that the number of mobile phone users in China will exceed 260 million. In addition, mobile phone manufacturers around the world will continue to outsource some of their production to China manufacturers, so it is estimated that by 2005, 40% of the global mobile phones will be made in China, while only 20% will be made in 20001year. " This means that by then, the annual output of mobile phones in China will reach 65.438+0.4 billion, making it the first production base in the world.

3) CCID Consulting's survey shows that the growth of the mobile phone market mainly comes from this, although first-time users occupy a dominant position (70.5%). With the continuous development and application of new services of China Mobile and China Unicom, the share of mobile phone upgrading has gradually increased, reaching 29.5%, which has formed a new impetus for market development.

2. Market share

There are more than 30 mobile phone brands and nearly 40 manufacturers in China market, including GSM manufacturer 12 and CDMA manufacturer 19. Foreign brands are mainly Motorola, Nokia, Ericsson and Samsung, while domestic brands are mainly Bird, Kejian, TCL and Konka. The top ten brands in 200 1 are Motorola, Nokia, Samsung, Siemens, Bird, TCL, Ericsson, Philips, Dongfang Communication and Alcatel, accounting for more than 80% of the total market share. In 200 1 year, domestic brand mobile phones achieved good results, and their market share soared from 7% in 2000 to 15%, more than doubling. In 2002, it rose to 16% from May to May, and Kejian, TCL and Bird all entered 10, which changed the situation that foreign brands dominated the world in the past. According to CCID Consulting's statistics, by the end of April, 2002, the sales volume of mobile phone equipment market in China was close to160,000 units. Among them, the market share of domestic brand mobile phones has reached more than 18%. The top ten brands in sales volume are Motorola, Nokia, TCL, Samsung, Siemens, Bird, Ericsson, Philips, Dongfang Communication and Alcatel, accounting for more than 80% of the total share. Among them, domestic brand TCL entered the top three. The market share of domestic mobile phones has also increased from 2.5% in 1999 to 20% in April 2002. Zhang Qi, director of the Department of Electronic Information Products Management of the Ministry of Information Industry, said recently that the production and sales of domestic mobile phones increased by more than 30% in the first four months of this year. In particular, the output of TCL, Bird, Konka, Kejian and Haier increased by 345% year-on-year, the sales volume increased by 364% year-on-year, and 6.24 million units were exported.

The top five mobile phone market shares in China at the end of April 2002 Source: CCID Consulting in May 2002.

3. User analysis:

1) user age distribution

The survey of mobile phone consumption behavior shows that the proportion of users under the age of 30 keeps increasing, especially the users aged 265,438+0-25, rising from 65,438+05.8% in 65,438+099 to 23.4% in 2006,5438+0, and gradually becoming an important consumer group. The proportion of users over 30 years old has declined, and as of this survey, it has dropped to 26.8%. The user group of 3 1-35 years old has given way to the user group of 26-30 years old, but it still occupies an absolute advantage in the elderly user group; Generally speaking, mobile phone users are younger.

Data source: ccid200 1, 1 1.

From the age of mobile phone users, consumers in the age groups of 265, 438+0-25, 26-30, 365 and 438+0-35 are the three heavy consumers of mobile phones, accounting for the first three from 65,438+0,999, and the sum of the three accounts for more than 70% by the end of 2000. Among these three consumer groups, 2 1-25 years old and 26-30 years old are the main ones, and the sum of their proportions has reached 46% in 200 1, accounting for the largest part of the whole consumer group; Although the number of users aged 3 1-35 has declined, it cannot be ignored. According to the survey data, it still accounts for 20.6%. Although the proportion of users under the age of 20 has been increasing in the past three years, it is still impossible to become a "star" user group in the next few years due to the small proportion and slow growth.

Pursuing fashion and individuality is the characteristic of young people, and choosing mobile phones also pays more attention to styles that can show individuality. Motorola and Bird are more fashionable in designing mobile phone styles to meet the needs of consumers. Among domestic brands, the products of China Bird Company have been well received by consumers in this survey and become well-known brands with consumer satisfaction.

2) Factors to consider when buying a mobile phone

Data source: ccid200 1, 1 1.

It can also be seen from this survey that consumers pay more attention to the functions of mobile phones when buying them. Chinese input has become the most critical attribute of mobile phone functions, and mobile phones without Chinese input are not competitive in the market. Voice dialing function also occupies a certain position in the key attributes, among which new mobile phones launched by Motorola, Nokia, Bird, TCL and other companies have added this function.

3) Key attributes of mobile phones

Data source: ccid200 1, 1 1.

It can be seen from the investigation of the motivation to buy mobile phones that the proportion of blindly following the trend is very small, and people are becoming more and more rational in buying mobile phones. However, with the advent of the information age, communication between people is more important, so mobile phones naturally become an essential tool for people's daily contact.

4) The expected price of the mobile phone purchased by the user.

Data source: ccid200 1, 1 1.

5) Sources of mobile phone information obtained by consumers.

Today, with the Internet flooding people's lives, a large amount of information has entered people's field of vision in different ways. Although the traditional media is still the main source for people to buy information, people are no longer those traditional media in obtaining information. Internet plays an important role in information dissemination with its advantages of high speed and large capacity. It began to have a huge impact on the mainstream position of traditional media. It can be seen from this survey that traditional media, newspapers and television are still the main sources for people to obtain information, but the Internet (33.8%) accounts for an increasing proportion of people's access to information. Bird, Kejian, Motorola, Nokia and other major manufacturers spare no effort to promote their products on the Internet.

6) Channels for purchasing mobile phones

From this CCID mobile phone consumption behavior survey, we can see that the mobile communication market is becoming more and more mature, and consumers' purchasing concept is also developing towards rationalization. The product demand structure is more obvious, and personalized and fashionable products have become the mainstream direction of mobile phone development. This survey also provides some meaningful suggestions for manufacturers to correctly grasp the changing trend of consumer psychology and demand and produce products that are more in line with the market.

Second, the development trend of mobile phone technology

1, function

1) mobile phones have become a necessity for many modern people's work and life. From the "mobile phone" with only communication function to the "2.5G" and "3G" smart phones, its function is no longer just a communication tool, but a right-hand man for people's mobile office, leisure and entertainment. In this era when creativity is emphasized everywhere, the mobile phone is the personality we hold in our hands. There are more and more functions of mobile phones, and only with wonderful mobile phone software can these ideas be "displayed".

2) What is mobile phone software?

One characteristic of embedded software is that the software is solidified in hardware, and the software code must ensure high quality, high reliability and real-time, which generally includes three levels (as shown in the figure): the first level is the operating system (OS), which mainly communicates with RF (radio frequency signal) chips and processes instructions, and it is based on some basic network protocols (such as GSM, GPRS or CDMA, W-CDMA); The second level is the built-in mobile phone local applications, such as phone book, SMS, etc. More importantly, J2ME development platform has been integrated on some mobile phones, which can run applications developed by third parties. The third level is some KJava applications developed on J2ME platform (such as various games and photo browsing). ), as well as some interface functions of API, can transmit data with external PC through cable, and can also transmit data with external application service providers through wireless mode.

Simple schematic diagram of mobile phone software hierarchy

As far as OS is concerned, due to the different hardware devices (mainly chips), each manufacturer has its own operating system, which has not been fully opened yet. At present, the mainstream operating systems are Symbian, Linux, Win-CE and so on. The middle KVM platform is basically open, and the international standard is J2ME MIDP 1.0. As long as everyone follows this standard, the openness of the top floor can be guaranteed. However, at this level, due to the different functions of keyboard or touch screen, there are some differences in the interface of different manufacturers and models of mobile phones. The top application layer is relatively open. Using KJava, an open language, third parties can also develop mobile phone applications.

3) From simple call to mobile office.

The prototype of a mobile phone is very similar to a walkie-talkie. It first appeared in the 1940s and was used for military calls in World War II. It is the predecessor of the later "mobile phone". At that time, there was no concept of mobile phone software, and there was no value-added service on mobile phones. Later, mobile phones gradually shifted from military to commercial and civilian use. With the increasing demand of mobile phone users, the mobile phone and its software technology are constantly changing, and every innovation is inseparable from the needs of users.

At present, various multimedia applications have become the selling point of high-end mobile phone functions. Mobile phones have begun to merge with PDA, and they have also begun to bid farewell to the voice era and move towards mobile office. The expansion of specific functions is mainly reflected in the following aspects:

A. Interactivity In the current mobile phone interactive interface design, animations and patterns are introduced into the interface design, which was almost invisible in the early days.

B. Personal assistant and entertainment function Personal assistant refers to the phone book, booth, calendar, schedule, alarm clock, voice-activated dialing, recording and other functions. Entertainment functions are embodied in MP3 playing function, FM radio function, games and so on.

C. Software Extensibility: Load KVM on the mobile phone and explain Java programs to broaden the source of application software, and at the same time, it is convenient for users to add or delete some simple additional functions.

4) colorful KJava world

GPRS and W-CDMA promoted the emergence of KJava mobile phones. At present, many manufacturers are actively advocating KJava applications. Some mobile phone manufacturers have launched their own KJava mobile phones, such as Motorola's first KJava mobile phone A6288 and the latest 388 mobile phone, Siemens' 6688i, Nokia's 92 10 and so on. Amoi also launched the first dual-channel GPRS mobile phone in China, which opened up a colorful world for the future development of mobile phones. At the same time, mobile phone manufacturers are very optimistic about the KJava service market, so they actively build corresponding platforms on their mobile phones. At the same time, mainstream mobile phone manufacturers such as Motorola, Ericsson, Nokia and so on. , launched a national competition to develop KJava applications before and after the official commercialization of China Mobile GPRS network, in order to promote the interest and technical reserve of application developers in developing KJava applications. They believe that excellent software developed by third parties is of great benefit to the development and promotion of their own products. KJava can be used to write various application software programs, such as map query and positioning, stock trading, games and so on. And there are many interesting professional applications. The advantage of KJava is that it provides a relatively open platform. Mobile phone users can download software to expand their functions on their mobile phones. Its application goes beyond simple text and supports graphics, which makes the mobile phone interface completely beyond static content based on text and makes the service more stereoscopic and interesting.

5) At present, mobile phones tend to be multifunctional:

A. Notepad and phone book

B. integrate PDA function and support software upgrade.

C. Connect to the Internet wirelessly, send and receive e-mails and receive online information.

D. download electronic magazines, books, games, stock programs, etc.

E. Audio-visual short message (EMS), which can exchange words, pictures, animations and sounds with supporting mobile phones, and can also edit picture animations.

F fax, WAP, text editing, spreadsheets, presentations, calendars and address books, and other mobile office functions.

G. geographic information query, positioning and navigation functions.

6) Future trend: All-in-one machines will have all the functions of computers.

In the future, mobile phones can not only make phone calls and receive information, but also act as an all-round "digital and symbol processor" in entertainment, image transmission, surfing the Internet and games. It can become a multifunctional "unity" of computer, television, telephone and telegraph. It can also be used for satellite positioning, automobile control and automobile maintenance, cleaning and maintenance. The mobile phone can control the refrigerator and vending machine, deposit and withdraw money automatically, and realize the reservation service.

2. Technical features (please see annex)

Third, the future of mobile phone accessories (for example)

1, main accessories of mobile phone: battery, charger and earphone.

2, mobile phone battery:

1) The domestic market has a large capacity, and the number of mobile phone users in China has reached 654.38+76 million, making it the largest mobile phone consumer in the world. Since 1 mobile phone has at least 1 mobile phone battery, the market capacity of mobile phone battery is more than 30 billion yuan every year based on the average annual purchase of 1 battery by each user.

2) The investigation in the beginning of May 38+0, 2006 shows that among all kinds of battery brands used by mobile phone users, Nokia (24.64%), Motorola (18.84%) and Ericsson (15.94%) are in the leading position, accounting for 59.42% of the market share; State-owned brand batteries also occupy 23.2% market share. At present, the domestic battery market share is expanding, and it has the ability to compete with the original battery.

3) According to incomplete statistics, there are more than 50 domestic mobile phone battery manufacturers, and there are more than 20 well-known ones. It is difficult for manual workshop enterprises to make statistics. The low industry access standards and loose market supervision mechanism have led to a large amount of capital flowing into this place, which has led to many quality problems in mobile phone batteries. 200 1, 1 1, spot checks by quality inspection departments at all levels show that the proportion of counterfeit and shoddy mobile phone batteries in the whole market is as high as 30% in many places, and even exceeds 60% in some places.

After TCL, Desai and other large electronic groups set foot in the production of mobile phone batteries, with their leading technology, strong financial strength, developed sales network, especially perfect and meticulous after-sales commitment and service, a new pattern will appear in the domestic mobile phone battery market. Among them, TCL took the lead in reducing the price at 5438+0 on August 2, 2006, and its highest terminal price dropped from the original 168 yuan to 100 yuan, with a drop of up to 40%. Take price reduction as the "killer", purge the market and clean up the industry portal.

5) Type of mobile phone battery:

A. Cadmium-nickel battery is the earliest mobile phone battery. There is a memory effect, that is, before each charge, make sure the battery has been used up. The batteries of the first batch of mobile phones were all this kind of cadmium-nickel batteries, and today they are almost gone.

B. The standby time of Ni-MH battery is longer than that of traditional Ni-Cd battery, and the memory effect is not obvious. However, it is best to charge the battery after the battery is used up, which can prolong the life of the battery.

C. Lithium battery The mobile phone battery with the longest standby time at this stage. It has no memory effect, and Japanese technology is the most advanced at present. Just more expensive. Another feature of lithium battery is that it can't overheat, otherwise it will burn out. If you still remember, the lithium battery was unstable when it was first invented, and it gradually matured after several years of hard work and overcoming.

D. Polymer battery has the following advantages: a. There is no leakage problem of the battery, there is no liquid electrolyte in the battery, and colloidal solids are used; B, it can be made into a thin battery with a capacity of 3.6V and 400mAh, and the thickness can be as thin as 0.5mm；; C, the battery can be designed into various shapes, the battery can be bent and deformed, and the polymer battery can be bent by about 90 degrees at most; D, can be made into a single high voltage. The battery with liquid electrolyte can only get high voltage by connecting several batteries in series, while the polymer battery can be made into multi-layer combination in a single battery because there is no liquid.

E. Air zinc battery: The negative electrode of this battery is made of zinc, which is very distinctive.

6) At present, the development trend of mobile phone batteries is lithium-ion batteries, which have the following advantages:

A. No memory effect, no discharge, and long service life.

B. the working voltage is high. Usually, the voltage of a single lithium-ion battery is 3.6v, and the voltage of Ni-MH and Ni-Cd batteries is 1.2v, which is three times different.

C. small size, light weight and high specific energy. The specific energy of lithium-ion battery can reach more than twice that of nickel-cadmium battery. Compared with the same capacity Ni-MH battery, the volume can be reduced by 30% and the weight can be reduced by 50%.

D. long life. The service life of high-quality lithium-ion batteries can reach more than 1200 times, which is much higher than other types of batteries.

E. safe and fast charging. Lithium-ion batteries are treated by special technology, which allows them to be quickly charged within 2 hours, and the safety performance is greatly improved.

F. wide allowable working temperature range. Lithium-ion batteries can work between -20℃ and +60℃. High temperature discharge performance is superior to other types of batteries.

3. Headphones:

1)

Fourth, the parasitic era-mobile phone battery (new concept)

Attached:

Mobile communication industry report

Just as transportation constitutes the basic industry of the national economy, in the process of information generation, processing and transmission, information transmission (that is, communication) is the foundation of the information age. The information age is based on a convenient, smooth and developed communication network. With the advent of the information age, the communication industry has become one of the fastest growing and most dynamic industries. In the communication industry, mobile communication is particularly vigorous as a development trend, and its development speed greatly exceeds people's imagination. Nowadays, the rapid development of mobile communication has become the most dazzling "bright spot" in the information industry and a powerful driving force to promote social and economic development.

Industry profile

The so-called mobile communication means that two parties or at least one of them exchange information in motion. For example, communication between moving bodies (cars, boats, pedestrians) and fixed points, or communication between moving bodies, and so on.

Mobile communication is the product of the development of modern science and technology, which brings a lot of convenience to people's life and work. With the further development and perfection of its own technology, its function will be more powerful and its application will be more extensive, thus becoming the main communication mode in the future.

At present, the most common and familiar mobile communication is the mobile phone which mainly transmits voice signals. This paper also focuses on it, but as will be introduced later, the future mobile communication will mainly transmit data services, that is, mobile Internet and multimedia signals running on it.

The following will briefly introduce the principle and market segmentation of mobile communication, so as to have a general understanding of mobile communication.

(A), a brief introduction to the principle of mobile communication

Modern wireless communication originated from the experiment of Hertz electromagnetic radiation in the19th century, and Marconi's transatlantic radio communication confirmed the ability of radio waves to carry information, and its theoretical basis was the equation established by Maxwell.

However, the modern mobile communication experiment took place in Detroit, USA in the early 1920s. At that time, the wireless receiver was installed on the moving police car and received the one-way message from the console. In the early 1930s, mobile transmitters began to appear and the first two-way mobile communication system was put into use. By the end of 1930s, FM mobile communication system began to be used.

Generally, a mobile communication system consists of a mobile station (MS), a base station (BS) and a mobile service switching center (MSC), and interfaces with long-distance and local telephone communication networks.

A base station and a mobile station consist of a receiver, a transmitter and an antenna. Each base station has its own reliable communication range, which is called wireless cell. According to business needs, multiple base stations can be set up, while only one mobile service switching center can be set up. The mobile terminal sends wireless signals to the base station, and the base station (through wired equipment) transmits the signals to the mobile switching center, which performs information exchange processing and centralized control and management of the mobile communication system. Meanwhile, the mobile switching center is also connected to the public telephone network.

(B), the mobile communications industry market segmentation

According to different products and services, the mobile communication market can be divided into the following categories:

Among them, the basic equipment mainly includes mobile switches and mobile base stations. Consumer goods include mobile phones, mobile phone batteries, chargers, etc.

At present, the telecom operation market in most countries in the world is monopolized and strictly controlled by the government. The manufacturing industry has a high degree of marketization. Due to the high technical threshold, the high-end products of mobile communication are monopolized by a few companies around the world, and the profits are still high. Low-end products have low technical content, more and more fierce competition, and their profits are decreasing year by year.

return

Second, the status quo of the mobile communication industry

After 100 years of development, mobile communication has developed in the sea, land, air, underwater, underground and deep space, and has experienced the process from professional network to public network.

In recent 20 years, the close combination of mobile communication based on microelectronics technology and computer technology is undergoing a revolutionary leap, and various new technologies such as FDMA, TDMA and CDMA are emerging one after another. Generation after generation of new systems are constantly emerging. In just 20 years, the first generation of analog mobile communication system has almost become history, the second generation of digital mobile communication system has been widely popularized, and the third generation of global integrated mobile communication system is about to come out. It is predicted that by 20 10, mobile communication equipment will become the first in sales of all communication equipment.

(1) Development of modern mobile communication technology

In the late 1940s, the concept of "honeycomb" appeared in the proposal of Bell System. Since then, this idea has occupied the field of mobile communication.

Functionally, cellular system consists of wireless subsystem, switching subsystem, database subsystem, processing subsystem and external network. Structurally, it can be divided into base transceiver station (BTS), base station controller (BSC), mobile MSC (MSC), HLR:Homelocationregister (HLR), home subscriber HLR (HLR), operation and maintenance center (OMC), authentication center (AC), mobile terminal (MT) and air interface (WP).

Cellular mobile communication technology has been developed for three generations, and is currently in the transition stage from the second generation to the third generation.

1, the first generation cellular mobile communication system-analog cellular mobile communication system

The system began with the cellular mobile communication system HCMTS proposed by Bell Company to the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) in June197/kloc-0. HCMTS was installed in 1978, and began to be commercialized in 1983, and it evolved into the national standard of American analog system-amps in 1980s. AMPS is one of the main simulation systems in China. At the same time, other analog cellular mobile communication systems based on different standards have also been greatly developed.

Although these systems have many similar characteristics, they have not formulated a global standard, and these systems cannot be interconnected. This obvious shortcoming is one of the main reasons for the development of the second generation mobile communication.

2. The second generation cellular mobile communication system-digital mobile communication system.

Due to the capacity bottleneck and incompatibility between the first generation mobile communication systems, people began to build the second generation mobile communication system with higher capacity and global unified standards. Digital technology is selected as the benchmark of the second generation cellular mobile communication because of its good anti-interference ability, potential large capacity and the ability to integrate with other information technologies.

In recent years, digital mobile communication system has got unprecedented development, and gradually occupied and greatly expanded the market of analog systems in the past. In China, when the development of AMPS and other analog systems stopped, the Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM) developed rapidly and became the largest GSM market in the world. Table 2-2 shows several digital systems that are widely used at present.

The above systems are basically incompatible. In the market, there are three widely used technical standards, namely, GSM in Europe and the world, IS- 136 in North America, JDC(japanesedigitalcelluer) or PDC(pacificdigitalcelluer) in Japan.

Because the second generation digital mobile communication system has not reached the original goal in many aspects, and because of the development of technology and the increasing demand for system transmission capacity, the data transmission capacity of several thousand bits per second can no longer meet the requirements of some users for high-speed data transmission, and some new technologies such as IP can not be effectively realized. In this case, systems with transmission capacity of 9~ 150kbps, such as General Packet Radio Service (GPRS) system, began to appear, and became the intermediate technology for the transition to the third generation mobile communication technology.

3. The third generation cellular mobile communication system

In the 1990s, the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) made great efforts to organize and study the future public mobile communication system as the third generation, with universal and integrated services as the basic starting point. In order to realize global networking, the WARC-92 conference divided 1885 ~ 2025mhz and 2 1 10 ~ 2200mhz into the third generation. The third generation mobile communication system is under intense international development. Japan cooperates with South Korea, and it is expected that 200 1 will be put into trial operation, and it will be commercialized in 2002 to provide services for the World Cup. Considering that the system works in 2000MHz band and the data transmission rate reaches 2000 kbit/s, the third generation mobile communication system is named "IMT-2000", that is, "International Mobile Communication -2000" system. The objectives of IMT-2000 are:

* Global unified frequency band, unified standard and seamless global coverage.

* High spectral efficiency

* High quality of service and high confidentiality.

* Provide multimedia services at the highest rate of 2MB/s.

* speed environment: 144kb/s

* Walking environment: 384kb/s

* Indoor environment: 2Mb/s

* Easy transition and evolution of the second generation system.

* Low terminal price

For details about the third generation mobile communication, please refer to "(2) the development trend of mobile communication-the third generation mobile communication system with a transmission rate of 2Mbps".

(2) The development trend of mobile communication-the third generation mobile communication system with a transmission rate of 2Mbps.

1, the development trend of contemporary mobile communication

From the great development of global mobile communication in the last 20 years, it can be seen that contemporary mobile communication has the following development trends:

1) The development speed of mobile phone is much faster than that of fixed wired phone, and it has become the highlight of information and communication industry.

According to the prediction of American Business Weekly, from 654.38 to 0997, there were about 200 million mobile phones and nearly 654.38+0 billion fixed phones in the world. By 20 10, the number of mobile phones will reach1300 million, with an average annual growth rate of 25%, while the number of wired phones will reach1400 million, with an average annual growth rate of only 4%. According to the statistics of the International Telecommunication Union, in the last two years, more than 50% of the new telephone users in the world are mobile phone users, and in developed countries, the proportion is as high as 75%. At present, the mobile phone penetration rate in many European countries has exceeded 40%, among which Iceland, Norway and Sweden have reached 65%, 63% and 57%, ranking the top three in the world. In China, the annual growth rate of mobile phones has greatly exceeded that of fixed lines in recent years.

According to a comprehensive foreign news report, by the end of June this year, the global mobile phone users were estimated to be 570 million, accounting for about 10% of the global population, and the penetration rate has surpassed that of personal computers. At the end of last year, the global personal computer usage was 430 million, which has been overtaken by mobile phones. At present, it is estimated to increase to 500 million, but the growth in Europe and America has slowed down, and the gap with mobile phones has gradually widened.

It is certain that mobile communication will become a very important communication tool in the 2 1 century, and it will surpass wired communication in both quantity and business volume. With its fast-growing market and extraordinary expansion potential, mobile communication is becoming the bright spot of the whole information and communication industry in the future.

2) The proportion of mobile data services will increase day by day, forming a mobile Internet. In recent years, with the rapid development of global Internet and mobile network, there is a demand for mobile IP services, and data transmission will soon realize mobile transmission. This means that the freedom given by mobile communication is combined with the rich content of the Internet. Users will access IP services from mobile terminals for web browsing and file transmission, and the proportion of mobile data services will increase day by day, and the growth rate of mobile data volume will reach 40% ~ 50% in the near future. GPRS (General Packet Radio Service) and WAP (Wireless Application Protocol) have become the focus of mobile data communication. GPRS can realize the data transmission rate as high as 1 15kbit/s on the existing GSM infrastructure, and WAP is the bridge between mobile network and Internet. These two new technologies promote the mobile phone to surf the Internet, which can become a new driving factor for the mobile Internet. Mobile terminals can provide information services such as personal information, mobile banking, automatic sales, burglar alarm and home automation. And this kind of service will show an explosive growth trend in the next two or three years. The next generation of mobile phones will be the media mobile phones that make maximum use of the Internet, and their sales will surpass those of portable computers.

Figures 2-3 and 2-4 reflect the integration of mobile communication with Internet and multimedia of mobile services.

Since Japan's DoCoMo Company launched the mobile Internet service-I-Mode service (Interactive, Information, InternetAndi) on February 22nd, it has increased 80,000 users per week on average. 1992. At present, there are more than 6 million users, and it is expected that the number of users will exceed100000 in March 2006. DoCoMo provides about 500 websites, with more than 10000 spontaneous websites. Half of them are business applications and the other half are entertainment applications.

The success of I-mode shows that data services have great development potential.

It is predicted that the voice service of mobile communication will not increase in 2005. By 20 10, mobile multimedia services will surpass voice services.

3) Move