Deduction: If the dividend growth rate is always gn, the intrinsic value of the stock is D0( 1+gn)/(y-gn), but in the first two hours, the average growth rate is (ga+gn)/2, and the growth rate beyond the hypothesis is (GA+GN)/2, which exceeds the hypothesis. So the intrinsic value of stock is d0/(y-gn) * [(1+gn)+h * (ga-gn)].

Stock valuation is to estimate the relative price of stocks in the future through specific technical indicators and mathematical models, also known as the expected price of stocks.

Chinese name stock valuation stock valuation refers to a specific technology. The first method is based on the price-earnings ratio. Compared with the second method, it is based on the price-to-book ratio.

1 valuation method

2 valuation model

Valuation method

The first one is based on the price-earnings ratio. For example, the price-earnings ratio of steel industry in developed countries is generally 8- 13 times. Therefore, through this valuation method, it can be concluded that the valuation of general steel enterprises = performance * the general price-earnings ratio of this industry.

The second is the valuation based on the price-to-book ratio. For example, if the net assets per share of a resource-based enterprise is 4 yuan, then we can see what is the general P/B ratio of such enterprises in the capital market, and its valuation = net assets * the general P/B ratio of this industry. This valuation method is suitable for enterprises that mainly rely on means of production, such as manufacturing, but obviously not for enterprises like it.

Evaluation model editing sound

Basic model of stock valuation

The calculation formula is:

Stock value

evaluate

Value statement R-the necessary rate of return required by investors.

Expected dividend for dt-t period.

N-the expected holding period of the stock.

Valuation model of zero-growth stocks

Zero-growth stock means that the issuing company pays equal dividends per share every year, which means that the annual dividend growth rate is assumed to be zero. Dividends per share are in the form of permanent annuities. The valuation model of zero-growth stocks is:

Stock value =D/Rs

Example: The estimated annual dividend per share of a company is 65,438+0.8 yuan, and the market interest rate is 65,438+00%, then the intrinsic value of the company's shares is:

Stock value =1.8/10% =18 yuan.

If the purchase price is 16 yuan, it is feasible to invest in the stock without considering the risk.

Second, the constant growth model.

(1) general form. If we assume that dividends will grow at a constant growth rate forever, then a constant growth model is established. If a company paid a dividend per share 1.80 yuan last year, it is estimated that the dividend of the company's stock will increase by 5% every year in the future. Therefore, the expected dividend for next year is1.80× (1.05) =1.89 yuan. Suppose the necessary rate of return is 1 1%, and the company's stock is equal to1.80× [(1.05)/(0.1-0.05)] =/kloc-0. At present, the price per share is 40 yuan, so the stock is overvalued by 8.50 yuan. Investors who currently hold the stock are advised to sell it.

(2) Relationship with zero growth model. The zero growth model is actually a special case of the constant growth model. In particular, assuming that the growth rate is equal to zero, dividends will always be paid in a fixed amount. At this time, the constant growth model is the zero growth model. From these two models, although the assumption of constant growth has fewer application restrictions than the assumption of zero growth, it is still considered unrealistic in many cases. However, the constant growth model is the basis of the multiple growth model, so this model is extremely important.

Third, the diversified growth model Diversified growth model is the most widely used discounted cash flow model to determine the intrinsic value of common stock. This model assumes that there is no specific model to predict the dividend change in a period of time, and after this period, the dividend changes according to the constant growth model. Therefore, the dividend flow can be divided into two parts. The first part includes the present value of all expected dividends during the irregular dividend change, and the second part includes the present value of all expected dividends during the constant dividend growth rate change from time point T. Therefore, the value (VT) of this stock at that time point can be expressed by the equation of the constant growth model.