Title: The Great Game of Economy
Author: Shi Hanbing
Press: Shanghai University of Finance and Economics Press
Publication date: 20 1 1 May, 2008
ISBN: 97875642 10625
Bar code: 97875642 10625
2 Author Profile Editor
Shi Hanbing: When the surname is given, the word "Bing Bing" is warm. Born in February 1972. He lives in Shanghai and works in shanghai securities news. He is the author of what China should do when the subprime mortgage crisis changes the world.
Adhering to the pursuit and belief that "a fair and just system can save people from plunder and fear, and make public interests and fear of life universal values, and all this can only come from democracy", the author has long insisted on public welfare writing, voiced for the people and shouted for the people's livelihood, and was regarded as a conscientious, sober and independent intellectual by many netizens.
Master of business administration. Invited observer of China Financial Media Alliance, editor-in-chief of shanghai securities news's commentary (once editor-in-chief of Modern Jinbao and Modern Express, affiliated to Xinhua News Agency), and editor-in-chief of the online publication China, as a special guest of china national radio, published a commentary on current affairs. Phoenix Bob Porter, consultant, visiting professor of Nanjing University, media commentator of shanghai securities news and China Securities Network.
3 editors recommend editing
Shi Hanbing, the author of What to Do in China, devoted ten years to his masterpiece!
Everyone can read the first book about economic trends.
The future 10 year wealth preservation and appreciation must be read.
Shi Hanbing said: What should we do in the great economic game? This is a fascinating book, which is easy to understand and thoroughly analyzes the essence of the problem. From the big chess game of the whole world economy to the small chess game of the China stock market, the author analyzes them one by one, revealing many hidden things.
From the beginning, the author started with the phenomenon of money, and gave us a trend line dominated by currency overshoot. On this line, the government's decision-making ideas, the trend of commodities and the trend of macroeconomics are all in front of us. This book has expanded from economic and financial fields to international chess, making everything clear.
In China, the United States, the European Union, Japan, Russia and other major economies in the world, domestic and foreign policies contain fierce collisions and games. This game is a big game, but everything is open and transparent. The author seems to be an expert at watching chess. He has a thorough understanding of the essence. From this, we see another world, a seemingly calm world, but in fact it is undercurrent and even tense.
When analyzing the problem, the author fully considered all the elements and conditions, and then melted into one furnace, peeled cocoons layer by layer, and deduced step by step, like an expert who understands cattle, which is exquisite and interlocking, admirable. After reading the whole book, many problems that were originally incomprehensible will become suddenly enlightened and have an epiphany. The economic pattern and trends that many people care about have become intuitive and clear.
Readers can learn to see through the hidden secrets of the world and the changes of trends, gain insight into the future, defend their wealth and realize the preservation and appreciation.
4 Content introduction editing
This book is the second economic work in the author's life. The content covers many fields such as economy, politics and military affairs in the world today. China's famous military writer, military theorist and critic, Air Force Admiral Major-General Qiao Liang prefaced this book, and commented that this book "covers almost all the problems in today's world: everything is in front of us! Even on military issues, his calm and keen views and accurate analysis are far above many of our military experts today. You can disagree with some of his conclusions, but you still have to admire him for fully considering all the elements and conditions when analyzing a certain problem, and then fusing them into a furnace, layer by layer, and deriving them step by step. "
5 preface to this book 1 editor
Tragic prophet
-Preface to Shi Hanbing's Economic Chess.
Qiao Liang
Originally, I wanted to use a more playful topic, such as "wizard" or "crow's mouth", but I was worried that readers and even the author himself could not understand my original intention, so I decided to use the word "prophet". First of all, it looks more positive. Secondly, after reading the abbreviated version of this book, I firmly believe that what the author thinks and says is worthy of these two words.
I don't know the author, but I know his works. Over the years, the name Shi Hanbing has jumped into my sight from time to time. In my opinion, his writing is insightful, colorful, prescient and avant-garde, which deserves your attention. Therefore, whenever I see him in a newspaper or magazine, I will take him with me to read it, including buying his book What should I do in China-When the subprime mortgage crisis changes the world.
But I want to say that all the impressions after reading are not as shocking as reading this book. In the "economic chess game", Shi Hanbing gave full play to the skills of an economic analyst, which is admirable. From the catalogue of this book, we can see that the author has the ambition to cover almost all the problems in the present world: everything is in front of us! Even on military issues, his calm and keen views and accurate analysis are far above many military experts today. You can disagree with some of his conclusions, but you still have to admire his analytical ability of fully considering all the elements and conditions when analyzing a problem, and then melting them into a melting pot, peeling off cocoons layer by layer and reasoning step by step. This is talent. This is the unparalleled talent of most people who cultivate, gallop or practice in this field. However, it was not his talent that I admired Shi Hanbing at first, although I was attracted by his talent at first. Because this talent is so bright and dazzling. What I value more is the quality of a serious scholar and thinker, which is revealed behind these articles full of talent and wisdom. In my opinion, these things-the talent of scholars and the quality of thinkers-will inevitably constitute a person's conscience and sense of responsibility. All this goes through this person's brain, then comes out of generate's chest, and finally becomes a loud cry and warning to the fate of the country and the nation.
When Bing Bing brought out his worries and warnings with almost cruel words and a lonely and angry cry that everyone was drunk and I woke up alone, he inevitably became a prophet. A tragic prophet who cannot be decorated with quotation marks.
After reading these words, which may be familiar to us, no one expressed such shock! -"All countries with excess money in the world are desperately trying to find a way out for money-only by absorbing these currencies can we avoid the raging fire of inflation and ignite the uncontrollable anger of the people";
"This neglected route, from currency overshooting to absorption and evaporation, dominates the stock market trend and economic trend of many countries";
"Now and in the future, mankind will pay the price for the currency that continues to be oversold. ..... Wealth is shrinking faster than climate warming. ...... All the governments and relevant institutions in the world are covering up the fact that money is over-issued, and without knowing it, they are grabbing the wealth created by the people ";
"Why is the domestic inflationary pressure increasing, that is, while the RMB depreciates internally, it is rapidly appreciating externally, especially against the US dollar? ..... putting the base currency in China to reserve foreign exchange such as US dollars will inevitably lead to this situation ";
"The United States and other developed countries, excessive credit support, can dock China's exports and consume China's excess capacity. After the subprime mortgage crisis, American consumers have overdrawn their spending in the next few years, and their spending power is not what it used to be. In this case, if China still invests heavily, what will happen to the overcapacity once this supply capacity is released in the future? ..... After inflation, China will enter the economic form of imported inflation and domestic deflation. "
"On the one hand, the United States should implement a weak dollar policy, on the other hand, it must ensure that the hegemonic position of the dollar in the world will not waver. Only by harassing the only euro that can compete with the dollar, that is, by triggering a crisis in the euro countries, can it strengthen the only strong position of the dollar";
"This means that the renminbi will appreciate not only against the euro, but also against the dollar ... There will be another link in the future, that is, by triggering the Japanese debt crisis, the yen will be forced to depreciate rapidly, leading to a rapid appreciation of the renminbi against the yen";
"The dangerous logic of this layout is: first, forcing the RMB to appreciate, leading to the bankruptcy of a large number of export-oriented manufacturing enterprises due to losses, including many high-quality enterprises, and then pushing the RMB to depreciate sharply, so as to buy high-quality enterprises, RMB assets and resources in China with the huge profits gained from pushing up China's bubble and arbitrage! ..... This is the blood of RMB appreciation! "
The above words are only quoted from the first chapter of this book. And similar words are both thorough and loud, all over the book. Perhaps, for these opinions, some conceited professionals in the circle will shrug and say that they have long known that there is nothing new; Some officials who are used to reporting good news instead of bad news will regard it as a "crow's mouth" prediction, but for most people in China, from the decision-making level to the ordinary people, it is no less than a lightning that cuts through the shadow and a thunder that stings the eardrum.
Because, in today's China, not everyone has such knowledge and courage. Of course, Shi Hanbing knew that as a pioneer and prophet of thought, it was not enough to just shout "Wolf". You must prove with your thoughts and words, where did wolves come from? What will happen if you come? Why is this happening? In a word, you must reveal the reason why a wolf is a wolf, its nature, its behavior pattern and its route. When you make all this clear, you have accomplished the mission of a prophet. The rest are the people who listen to you. Although in most cases, people didn't pay attention to the prophet until the wolf really came and began to hurt the sheep. So, as a tribute to the prophet, China people invented "better late than never", a classic "Monday morning quarterback".
This is the helplessness of thinkers and the sorrow of the people. In the face of this sadness and helplessness, do you choose to go upstream or choose to retreat? This is the difference between a thinker and a vulgar thinker. Ice obviously belongs to the former, because in the chapters after the first chapter, he successively revealed to us all kinds of thrilling games and even struggles in the big chess game of different countries' economies, especially finance, politics and especially military affairs in the past few decades, and he was not satisfied with just describing the cruel scene of this protracted war to us. He wasn't even satisfied with using his The Lancet as a surgeon, showing us the sinister calculation and strategic path full of it, but he also revealed the root causes of all these diseases with the exploration of a doctor. This can be seen from his efforts to find the hidden track between Soros's attack on the pound and Thai baht, as well as the Greek and European debt crisis and the "stupid pig five" created by the United States to get rid of the financial crisis.
I think his efforts were not in vain. At this point, I lead Bing as a companion. Because from different fields and angles, we found the game strategy and rules of the biggest player in this big game, Americans. This strategic rule is expressed in a more academic way, but I only shorten it to two China idioms: "A rising tide lifts a boat" and "Underwater". This tight-lipped strategy of the United States means that when the global economic situation is improving, all countries are water, the United States is a ship, and the United States is the biggest beneficiary; When the global economy is in a downturn, countries are still water and the United States is a stone. Speaking of the bottom, the United States is still the relative biggest beneficiary. This is the secret that Americans have been unbeaten for hundreds of years. In order to cooperate with the realization of this strategy, Americans spare no effort, from theoretical guidance (market fundamentalism theory under the banner of Chicago School) to promoting the globalization movement (instead of the "open door" that the British Empire forced countries with gunboats policy in the past), to shaking mountains with soft persimmon-like wars, changing other people's investment environment, and controlling and driving away the flow rate and direction of capital. All this, Americans have played with ease, and the whole world has done it. Of course, this includes China.
As a passive player in this big chess game, Bingbing painfully pointed out all kinds of chilling possibilities for us. Although not every possibility will appear, because it is impossible for your opponent to turn every possibility against China into reality, it is absolutely necessary to be alert to its prospects. This is the value of the book Great Economic Chess. The author's book is full of angry rational cries, and I think decision makers must listen!
As a reader, of course, I also want to know what kind of prescription this book can prescribe for worrying "China patients". I noticed that Han Bing repeatedly emphasized the efficacy of "system", "system" and "values" except all targeted prescriptions. We haven't exchanged views on this, but I can feel the meaning of ice. Therefore, I can't help but say a few digressions on this.
In my opinion, a thinker can't take the conclusions of his predecessors as the premise of his argument without thinking. Even if this conclusion has been circulated in the world for hundreds of years and thousands of years, no one doubts it, but it still cannot be the basis for me not to doubt it. I never believe that the system or system can solve the fundamental problem, because putting the cart before the horse is irreversible. Therefore, I firmly believe that compared with institutions and systems, the soil that constitutes institutions and systems-nationality and nationality-is far more important. Therefore, it is impossible to really solve the problem without changing the soil structure to transplant the system or system-this is not difficult to draw a conclusion from the "uncooked rice democracy" in Taiwan Province Province. Not to mention the issue of accepting certain values, especially when such values are increasingly becoming a national weapon, not just the public's recognition and self-discipline. What is the difference between it and the function with opposite value? Based on these understandings, I have neither rejected nor been superstitious about all the passive water and trees that have come to China. Of course, these digressions are only spontaneous, and opinions vary. A good financial system is very important to the healthy operation and security of the national economy, which is not the same as what Bing said.
Only in this order, I pay tribute to this young thinker who knew the future of China earlier than most people in China, and feel solemn and stirring.
6 book catalog editing
Preamble tragic prophet
Foreword 2 I recommend Xuanyuan of my blood.
Foreword 3: A compassionate financial strategist.
Foreword 4: Feel the beauty of great love in shock.
Self-salvation under the self-ordered game
The first chapter is the fierceness of currency and the mystery of house price and stock market.
Section 1 The number of "ten thousand households" in the past is 2.55 million today
Section 2 Sponge for Absorbing Excess Currency
Section 3 Real Estate with Excess Currency Flow
Section IV Stock Market with Excess Currency Flow
Section 5 The Blood of RMB Appreciation and the Future of China
Section VI Decryption: Made in China is more expensive at home than abroad.
Chapter II Chinese-style assistance and American-style assistance
Section 1: Chinese-style rescue of the market (1): investing to revitalize the dead chess
Chinese-style rescue of the market in the second quarter (part two): stimulating domestic demand and revitalizing the dead chess
Section 3 American trilogy of bailout (1): Self-protection
Section IV Trilogy of American bailout (Part II): Passing on the crisis and looking for new growth points.
The third chapter is the big chess game? Sniper
Section 1 Sniper Point
In the second quarter, Greece was planted with "Trojan horses"
The third quarter thrilling counterattack
The fourth quarter counterattack
Chapter 4 Who is the next target?
Section 1 It is not the DPRK and the ROK that are in danger
In the second quarter, the big chess game got off to a good start
Section 3 Competition among Great Powers Behind the Turbulence
The fourth quarter, the next goal of the United States
The fifth chapter is the colorful turning point of Russia
The first section under the rule of Mapp, the role of Russia
Section 2 Russian warlords
In the third quarter, different chess games between Russia and Europe and America
In the fourth quarter, "Mapp" has two peaks with many variables.
Chapter VI The Ongoing Oil War
Section 1 The United States is ready to attack Iran
In the second quarter, the United States withdrew its fist.
Section 3 New Energy and Potential Oil Powers
The fourth quarter bloody oil
Chapter VII What makes China shivering in the cracks?
Section 1 Oil: China tied himself to the car.
In the second quarter, the new cycle of food shortage and agricultural products terror (I)
Section III Food Shortage and a New Round of Agricultural Products Terror (Part II)
The fourth quarter exchange rate sniper warfare
Section 5 Born in a bubble, died in a bubble
Chapter 8 Soft rib and pain, meet tragically!
Section 1 government investment leading the economy will have endless consequences
Section 2 Poverty Population and Fragile Social Security System
Section 3 fragile defense line: state-owned enterprises are cold
The fourth section is the hidden curse in the struggle of private enterprises.
Section 5 Absence of the Middle Class and Loss of Values
Chapter 9 ending: the debt crisis is desperate.
The first section The debt curse triggered a cruel confrontation
Japan: The Worst Debt Crisis since 1875
China in the third quarter: The debt is under a terrible "curse".
Section IV America: Great Fear-Debt Crisis
Section 5 decisive battle: the United States suddenly retaliated
Chapter 10 What shall we do?
The first section guards the channel of wealth
In the second quarter, the trend was irreversible.
Section 3 Resource Accumulation
The fourth quarter to promote the optimization of the system
Section 5 The public interest is above everything else
Chapter 11 Japan Earthquake and Big Chess
Section 1 Earthquake and "broken window theory"
The unbearable burden of Japan in the second quarter
The earthquake in the third quarter destroyed Japan's economic base
The influence of Japanese earthquake on China.
Section 5 The earthquake changed the big chess game
The six illustrations in this book were drawn by Shi Hanbing's daughter Shi Lingman (8 years old), which makes the book more lively. It also shows that the close relationship between today's economy and us has penetrated into the children's field of vision, which is worth understanding.