It is understood that on June 15, the national average price of ternary standard pigs was 16.3 1 yuan/kg, and the pig price increased by 0. 16 yuan, which was 0.5 1 yuan/kg higher than last weekend. Pig prices soared, the market also got rid of the sideways trend, and pig prices stood firm. The average price of domestic pigs also hit a new high in the year, and farmers were beaming. Most of them are self-supporting, and some pig enterprises are gradually picking up, but the loss pressure of slaughterhouses suddenly increases!
As we all know, after the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the market is bearish, because the consumer market is not as good as expected, and with the approach of the summer solstice solar terms, the temperature in the north and south of China has risen sharply, making the pig farm environment worse. As a result, the domestic sow stock has basically ended, but the production capacity has not been completely cleared, and the sow stock still exceeds 4 1 10,000 heads. Therefore, the market is expected to slaughter pigs.
However, the market does not follow the usual path. In recent days, the domestic pig price has soared, and the pig price has gradually stabilized in the "8 yuan/Jin era". Judging from the performance of the domestic north and south markets, the price of pigs in the northern region, most of North China and some eastern regions has risen to more than 8 yuan/kg. In the southern market, only the pig price in the southwest region showed a trend of "breaking 8", and the pig prices in East China, Central China and South China rose above 8 yuan in an all-round way.
The pig price soared, and the fuse supporting the market rise appeared in the Shanghai market, and the surrounding white bars increased. The rising pig prices in Shandong, Henan and other places have also led to the depression of farmers in most areas of Northeast China and South China. The wait-and-see mood in the south is gradually bullish, and the breeding market in the north is quite expensive. The supply of domestic pigs has decreased, while the control of large pig enterprises is outstanding. Under the growing market bullish sentiment, the price of pigs has risen sharply!
In addition, the continuous pork storage, the restrictions on the transfer of pigs from Guangdong and the recent rainfall in the north and south have all supported the short-term increase in pig prices. However, the price of live pigs has risen too fast, and the procurement cost of live pigs in slaughterhouses has greatly increased. However, the consumer market did not follow up well, and the price increase of white pigs in the terminal market aggravated the resistance of downstream traders. Some markets have a lot of surplus goods, and the increase in pig prices has also aggravated the pressure on slaughterhouses to lose money. How should the pig price change in the middle and late June? Some institutions remind farmers what support is there to prevent pig prices from falling?
Personally, the bullish sentiment at the breeding end is still in a strong stage. Although the pig price has gradually broken through the fattening cost line, due to the rising feed cost, the profitability of farmers has deviated, and farmers have higher expectations for the increase under long-term losses, while large-scale pig enterprises are shrinking. For retail pig farms, due to the rapid reduction of production capacity, the pressure on farmers to slaughter is weak at this stage, so the performance of slaughter is more flexible in the short term.
However, the extremes meet, and the rise supported by insufficient consumption is obviously "top-heavy". At present, the average processing loss of domestic pig enterprises exceeds 1.20 yuan, and the price reduction of slaughterhouses is still high. In the middle and late June, pork consumption lacked favorable support.
However, with the second fattening in the past two months, there are more and more big pigs in pig farms. Recently, the output of large pig enterprises has increased to about 124 kg. With the frequent high temperature and precipitation in the southern domestic market, the risk of pig disease has increased sharply, and the mood of big pigs in the market may become stronger. Therefore, in the middle and late June, there is still the risk of a cliff-like decline in pig prices! However, considering the gradual completion of the slaughter plan of large pig enterprises, the market still has the mood of "chasing high and selling low". Personally, I think it is unlikely that the pig price will drop sharply, and the market may have been dominated by narrow fluctuations!
Pig prices have skyrocketed, so be wary of falling off a cliff in June? What do you think of this? The above is the author's personal opinion, and the pictures are from the Internet!
# Pig price #