Kindergartens have high requirements for carrying capacity.
Private development leads to the problem of "expensive admission to the park"
Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that the number of kindergartens in China has been increasing since 200 1 year, from1170,000 in 2001year to 266,700 in 2001year, and recently1year.
In 20 18 years, if all the school-age children from 6/kloc to 0/70,000 in China enter the park, a single park will carry nearly 248 people on average. Based on the 46.56 million children in kindergartens in that year, the average number of children in a single kindergarten was nearly 174.
At the peak of 2020, the number of people planning to enter the park nationwide is about 58.23 million. If the number of kindergartens is maintained for 20 18 years, each single kindergarten will carry about 2 18 people on average, an increase of nearly 25.48% compared with 20 18 years.
It is not difficult to see that the carrying capacity of kindergartens in China needs to be improved rapidly in a short time, which leads to the problem of "difficulty in entering the park".
From 20 15 to 20 18, the conditions for running a kindergarten market have improved significantly. In 20 15, the average housing area of a single park in China was about 1 155, and it increased to 1326 in 20 18, with the largest increase in children's toilets, activity rooms and libraries.
It can also be seen from the construction area of kindergartens in various provinces and cities that from 20 15 to 20 18, the overall growth trend was sustained, and the national average construction area increased by about 36.95438+0% during this period. Especially in Xinjiang, Tibet, Guizhou, Yunnan, Gansu and other provinces, the growth rate exceeded 60%. Shanghai's garden construction area ranks first in the country, exceeding 2000.
At the same time, the staffing of individual parks has also increased. In 20 15 years, the national average number of people needed for a single park was about 15.63, including about 1. 13 directors, 917 full-time teachers, 0.40 host doctors and 2.83 nurses. In contrast, in 20 18, the average number of people in a single park in China was about 16.99, including 1. 10, 9.68 full-time teachers, 0.42 host doctors and 3.4 nurses. It can be seen that in the growth process of 20 18, the growth of nurses and full-time teachers is most obvious.
Judging from the number of kindergartens, among the 266,700 kindergartens in China from 438 in 2065 to 2008, there were about165,800 private kindergartens, accounting for about 62. 16%.
Judging from the number of students in school, about 46.564 million people entered kindergartens in 2065,438+2008 * *, of which nearly 26.3978 million people chose private kindergartens, accounting for nearly 56.69%.
The participation of social forces has played an all-round exploration and acceleration role in the early development of the kindergarten industry, and provided a solution for the industry to find a feasible business model and meet the market demand faster and better. At the same time, the profit-seeking nature of social forces is also constantly emerging in the development of the industry.
Unlike public kindergartens, which accept government pricing and price limit, most private kindergartens implement market pricing mechanism as long as the service content matches the price. Therefore, some kindergartens choose relatively high pricing in the development process, which further aggravates the pressure on public kindergartens to enter the park, increases the burden on families in preschool education, and the problem of "expensive admission" gradually appears.
Promote universal benefit and increase the proportion of public kindergartens.
In 20 18, the State Council issued "Several Opinions on Deepening the Reform and Standardized Development of Preschool Education", which not only clarified the development goal and direction of the national kindergarten industry, but also pushed the kindergarten industry into the process of industry integration by "cutting off" the capitalization path of kindergarten assets.
In accordance with the requirements of achieving the goal of universal benefit, provinces with low proportion of children in public parks will gradually increase the proportion of children in public parks, reaching 50% in principle in the whole country by 2020, and all localities can set specific development goals from reality.
Supporting the development of inclusive private parks through purchasing services, comprehensive awards, rent reduction, sending public teachers, training teachers, teaching and research guidance, etc. Kindergartens should be run as public parks or entrust inclusive private parks, and not as profit-making kindergartens.
Private parks are equipped with sufficient teaching staff and health care personnel according to equipment standards. Services such as nurses, security guards and chefs in public parks can be included in the scope of services purchased by the government, and the required funds are arranged from the local financial budget. Private parks should refer to the salary income level of teachers in local public parks and reasonably determine the salary income of corresponding teachers. All kinds of kindergartens pay social insurance and housing accumulation fund for teaching staff according to law.
Kindergarten approval strictly implements the "first license" system, and the county-level education department conducts pre-approval according to law, and after obtaining the license for running the park, it goes to the relevant departments for legal person registration.
With the promotion of "Pratt & Whitney", many problems began to appear. It is one of the basic demands for social forces to participate in industry investment and seek profits. Under the "inclusive" low-fee model, the profitability of kindergartens declines, and the willingness of social forces to participate in construction decreases. In addition, after the capital market channel is closed, the market will enter the era of "elimination" and "reshuffle", and the market supply may face a shortage.
At the same time, in the "low fee" mode, the cost needs to be reduced, and the content of many characteristic courses has been reduced. In the case of maintaining meager profit, parents' needs of cultivating children's characteristics can not be met, so they seek other institutions or other models to realize it, which increases parents' hidden parenting costs and lowers the ceiling of kindergarten development. From this point of view, with the gradual improvement of problems such as "difficult to enter the park" and "expensive to enter the park" and the gradual standardization of industry development, differentiated stratification is still the focus of kindergarten competition. In the longer term, kindergartens may have more possibilities.
"Direct Operation+Franchising" is a common mode.
New pre-school regulations slow down expansion.
20 18 new preschool regulations not only require social capital to participate in non-profit kindergartens, but also stipulate that kindergarten assets cannot be packaged and listed, and at the same time put forward higher requirements for chain operation. The new pre-school regulations clearly point out that for-profit kindergartens that implement franchise and chain behavior should, in principle, obtain the qualification of provincial demonstration parks.
Before the new preschool regulations, national preschool education groups usually adopted the mode of "direct operation+joining". These operators usually build their own direct-operated institutions into flagship models, promote other institutions in the region under the guidance of the franchise model, and charge franchisees initial fees and variable recurring fees for continuous services.
For the direct selling mode, under normal circumstances, the licensor will make preparations according to the standards of the flagship store. On the one hand, it plays the role of showing and influencing the services and contents of franchisees, on the other hand, it is easier to understand the local situation, providing the most direct way for the licensee to understand the market dynamics and grasp the market demand.
Under the franchising mode, the licensor's requirements for franchisees are not only the initial joining fee, but also the franchisees need to complete the processes of site selection, procurement, recruitment and training according to the licensor's guidance in the subsequent preparatory process.
Although the new pre-school regulations of 20 18 have not completely closed the entrance of chain operation, in the huge domestic kindergarten market, the resources that can obtain the qualification of provincial demonstration parks are inevitably relatively scarce, and it is difficult for newly-established or relatively small-scale kindergartens to meet the relevant requirements in a short time, thus reducing the expansion speed of chain enterprises from the policy level.
Future prospects and challenges
Third-party platforms that export content services may be very different.
It is predicted that by 2025, the national gross enrollment rate will be close to 90%. However, due to the decline in the number of newborns, the number of school-age children in the country will be around 56.7 million, and the ratio of 80% inclusive parks to 20% high-end parks will remain unchanged. Because the Pratt & Whitney Park is supported by the state, the tuition fees remain unchanged, and the high-end park is growing at the level of about 3% of the growth rate of consumer prices in China. From this calculation, we can get the market scale of kindergartens in China in 2025.
After the release of the new pre-school regulations, the listed companies whose main business is pre-school education assets are rapidly adjusted, and most companies choose to become service platforms for kindergarten education. As mentioned above, the courses needed by kindergartens under universal education are more in line with children's development, but the prices are not particularly outrageous. In addition, in the case of low price, improving the human efficiency, floor efficiency and operation efficiency of kindergartens is the key factor for the better development of kindergartens.
As a pre-school education enterprise that chooses relatively high-quality brands in the market as assets of listed companies, it can provide its own teaching and research advantages and operational experience as service content to inclusive kindergartens, so that more kindergartens can have high-quality content and balance the cost pressure brought by investing in research and development through scale effect.
Therefore, third-party platforms with content and service output as the main content may have the opportunity to bring about changes in the market structure.
The management of kindergartens also has great room for improvement and exploration. It is a market that has begun to take shape. By means of informationization and digitalization, it can improve the operating efficiency of kindergartens and enhance communication with parents. Future catering, electronic equipment, security services, etc. It may become the key content of the integration of third-party service platforms during the operation of kindergartens.