Yan Wenqian Bo Yan
18 In March, even during the Great Depression of 1929, there was a scene in which all European automobile manufacturers, including Volkswagen, Audi, Skoda, Porsche, PSA, Rolls-Royce, Daimler, BMW, Ferrari and Lamborghini, announced that they would stop working. The automobile industry in Europe came to a complete stop overnight.
Prior to this, on March 17, 2007, Volkswagen Group held an annual report conference at Wolfsburg headquarters, which may be the best portrayal of the reality of European automobile industry. With record sales, increasing profitability and the gradual disappearance of the shadow of the tailgate, Volkswagen Group should have sufficient reasons to send these optimistic signals to the outside world. But after an hour of "dry" financial data presentation, everyone only remembered one word: COVID-19.
"Considering the deteriorating sales situation and the uncertainty of the supply chain, our factory will directly face production suspension." Herbert Diss, CEO of audi ag, announced on the same day that the group will close all its factories in Germany and Europe from March 23rd, and the duration is expected to vary from two to three weeks. The production shift on March 20th this Friday will also be the last shift in March.
The car manufacturer stopped working.
At present, Volkswagen has more than 20 production bases in more than ten European countries such as Germany, Poland, Czech Republic, Spain, Portugal, Belgium, Hungary, Italy, Slovakia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Only in China, the shutdown will affect1030,000 employees. Previously, in areas with severe epidemics in Europe, Volkswagen's factories in Spain, Italy, Portugal and Slovakia had been shut down for a week. With the number of confirmed cases in COVID-19 in German mainland exceeding 1 10,000, the flagship experience store and theme park Autostadt of Volkswagen Wolfsburg Headquarters were closed on March 16.
At the same time, Diss also revealed that 365,438+0 of Volkswagen's 33 factories in China have resumed work: "In the European and global markets, the COVID-19 crisis is still in sight, and we can learn from what we have learned in the field of health and crisis response organizational measures in the China market."
Although Volkswagen Group has repeatedly stressed at the press conference that it will do its utmost to protect employees and find a balance between stable performance and employee safety, just like Alexander, the financial director of Volkswagen brand? Seitz said, "The COVID-19 crisis is unprecedented, and its impact on performance is unpredictable".
To be sure, if the annual sales revenue of Volkswagen Group in 20 19 is 252.6 billion euros, then a three-week shutdown is equivalent to an economic loss of about146 billion euros (140 billion yuan).
The scene of "happy events turn into funerals" also appeared on BMW, another giant in Germany.
At the BMW Annual Report Conference on March 18, the most important news was that the production was stopped, except that the revenue exceeded10 billion euros for the first time and the sales exceeded 2.5 million units.
On the same day, BMW CEO Chip Ce announced the closure of all European factories and South African factories for four weeks. Until April of 17, at least 30,000 employees were affected. BMW is also one of the major vehicle manufacturers that have announced the suspension of production for the longest time. Previously, BMW was criticized for the confirmed cases of FIZ in Munich R&D Center and Ding Gorfin in Bavaria, but it did not take extensive isolation measures.
Milan, member of the board of directors in charge of BMW production department? Nedeljkovic also said that BMW's factory in South Carolina will still be small-scale, while BMW's factory in China has all started. As for the impact of the epidemic on performance, BMW is not as vague as Volkswagen, and financial director Nokolas? Peter has announced that the operating profit margin will be lowered to the range of 2% to 4%, compared with the expected operating profit margin of 6% to 8%. In addition, BMW also expects the annual sales volume to drop sharply year-on-year.
In the worst-hit Italy, Ferrari and Lamborghini both announced the closure of all factories last week. On March 16, Fiat Chrysler (FCA), which had previously negotiated with Italian Prime Minister Conte and hoped to keep its factories running at a minimum by drastically reducing production, also announced that it would close its factories in Europe for at least two weeks, including the Kragujevac factory in Serbia and the Polish factory.
In addition to ensuring the health and safety of employees and preventing the virus from spreading in the factory, the supply chain that is about to break is also an important reason for forcing major automakers to make up their minds to shut down the production line.
"We can still guarantee the supply of spare parts this week, but with the growth of European (epidemic) problems, the supply is becoming more and more difficult. We expect the supply chain to be interrupted from next week. " Stefan, the director in charge of purchasing business of Volkswagen Group? Sommer said.
At present, with the closure of borders announced by European countries one after another, the internal market of the EU has essentially returned to before the establishment of the Schengen area. Although the border blockade only takes effect for people, it does not restrict the circulation of goods in theory. However, due to the prohibition of the export of medical materials and other rules, European countries have inspected transit vehicles. At present, trucks at all border checkpoints line up for several kilometers, especially the closure of the border between Germany and Poland. The annual export of Polish auto parts to Germany is about 24 billion euros.
Another factor that forced vehicle manufacturers to stop working is the administrative order issued by European countries this week or last week to close kindergartens, primary schools and secondary schools. Last week, the Lisbon factory of Volkswagen Group had to cut its production capacity by 65,438+06% due to a serious shortage of employees. More than half of Portuguese employees were unable to work because they had to take care of their children at home.
In Germany, according to think tank Jun, most of the non-single employees in the non-productive positions of Volkswagen Group have taken the initiative to apply for working from home, and some employees of Volkswagen Group have directly chosen to use annual leave, due to the fact that German federal states require schools to suspend classes and kindergartens to suspend classes on March 12. However, the group semi-compulsorily suggested that the notice of the Ministry of the Interior would take effect on March 65438, 2006.
Challenges of first-class parts suppliers
The impact of automobile manufacturers' suspension of production is also rapidly spreading to upstream enterprises.
The component manufacturer with the fastest response to this is Hella Electronics, an automotive electronics supplier. /kloc-In March of 0/8, Haila directly announced in the form of an announcement that the company could not achieve the revenue of 6.5 billion to 7 billion euros set at the beginning of this year, nor could it achieve the adjusted profit before interest and tax of 6.5% to 7.5%. As for the actual expected figures this year, like the Volkswagen Group, Hella Electronics said that due to the unclear development of the epidemic, it is impossible to make an estimate. In addition, Hella also announced that it will launch a package plan based on the existing cost reduction plan to further save labor costs, including closing the factory.
Even Bosch Group, the world's largest component supplier, has not been spared. Bosch has announced in March 2008 that it will close many factories in France, Italy and Spain. As for the German factory, it will continue to operate, and non-production personnel mainly work from home.
A spokesman for ZF Group, the third largest component manufacturer in Europe and the fifth largest in the world, also said: "It is not excluded to close several production lines or even the whole factory at Frederic Port headquarters to cope with the interruption of customer demand." At present, whether and how to guarantee the wages of employees in production posts is under negotiation.
It is worth noting that both Bosch and ZF said that it is not difficult to maintain the operation of the company's supply chain and production line. This is in stark contrast to the fact that major automakers regard supply chain problems as one of the reasons for closing production lines. In addition to the time lag in the supply chain, the main reason why parts manufacturers are unwilling to leave the possible claims in the future to the automobile factory is that the scope of work stoppage of parts manufacturers is smaller and the progress of work stoppage is not as fast and radical as that of the automobile factory.
Compared with the wait-and-see attitude of Bosch and ZF, the impact of this epidemic on Continental Group, the second largest component in the world, is much more serious.
Continental Airlines has had a poor performance in the past few years. According to the 20 19 annual report released on March 5th, the actual loss of Continental Group's annual net profit was 65,438.02 billion euros, and its annual revenue only increased slightly by 0.2% year-on-year to 44.5 billion euros. If the rubber group, which is mainly engaged in tire business, is excluded, the performance of Chinese mainland Automobile Group is even more bleak, and its revenue and earnings before interest and tax's decreased by-1.2% and -2 1 1% respectively.
The two axes played by the mainland are belt tightening and enterprise transformation.
On September 25th last year, Continental Airlines announced 10 that it would lay off 20,000 people worldwide. After that, the recruitment of Continental Germany headquarters was basically at a standstill, and all posts were encouraged to be digested internally to absorb the employees who were about to lose their jobs in the internal combustion engine department. According to the reporter of 265438+20th Century Business Herald, the year-end award in mainland Germany shrank to 460 euros last year, which was slightly shabby compared with the year-end award of 9200 euros in Porsche.
Continental's road to transformation gives two directions: transformation into a holding company, research and development of power software and automatic driving system. However, in order to raise funds, Continental not only needs to save 500 million euros every year before 2023, but also announced that it will split the powertrain business unit and rename it Vitesco, and list it separately. The spin-off is also the number one event of Continental Group this year.
However, the COVID-19 epidemic has seriously threatened the mainland's transformation plan. The mainland board of directors was originally scheduled to vote on the split powertrain division for the last round on March 17, 2007. However, due to the epidemic, it became a discussion about factory shutdown. The London investor conference and roadshow planned for March 23rd have been postponed indefinitely. The mainland had hoped that Vitesco could be listed on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange in September 1, but it seems that this plan is unrealistic at present. On the other hand, considering the recent plunge in European and American stock markets, the mainland may take the initiative to postpone the IPO plan.
As of press time, Germany's DAX index has fallen to 9000 points, down 30% from 13000 points a month ago. Mainland stocks that underperformed the broader market shrank by 40% in one month, the lowest value in eight years.
Perhaps it can't afford the economic losses caused by the epidemic, and Continental is also the last enterprise among the major parts suppliers to stop working. Although the R&D center of the Mainland in Frankfurt is increasing at the rate of 1 confirmed case every day this week, compulsory isolation measures have not been implemented so far, and a large number of non-production employees are still sticking to their posts. According to think tank Jun, the only measure at present is to cancel the buffet in the staff canteen and reduce the menu options from 10 to two.
Small and medium-sized enterprises are reluctant to close down
There are not a few upstream and downstream small and medium-sized enterprises like Continental Group who are unwilling to announce the suspension of production due to uncertainty and fear of economic losses.
Nearly half of the many supporting enterprises around BMW's Munich headquarters still do not encourage employees to go home to work. It has been more than a week since Bavaria announced the suspension of classes, and the governor of Bavaria announced the implementation of suspension orders in some cities on the 20th.
For employees in production positions, shutdown means a direct decline in wages. In European countries, including France, Italy and Germany, production line workers will be transferred to Kurzarbeitergeld after production is stopped. Under this system, the company will apply for short-term working funds for the affected employees. The state will provide employees with a basic income of up to three months, ensuring 60% to 67% of their wages, and the rest will be decided and borne by enterprises themselves. According to Manfred, chairman of the BMW Trade Union? Schoch revealed that BMW has ensured that production line employees can still get 93% of their original pre-tax income. At present, the average pre-tax monthly salary of assembly line workers in BMW's German headquarters is about 365,438+000 euros.
The shutdown caused by the epidemic not only brought economic losses to employees and threatened the cash flow of enterprises, but also exposed and intensified the contradictions within enterprises.
Bernd, chairman of the Volkswagen Trade Union, wrote in a letter: "Without clear instructions and explanations from the management, employees can't understand why they have to take the risk of infection in order to produce hundreds more cars." In Osterloh's internal mail, the trade union made it clear to the board of directors: "Employees feel the dual-class society in the enterprise."
Compared with the management team and engineer team who almost all worked from home last week, the employees on the production line had to bear the risk of infection, because the factory could not keep a safe distance between employees. In the process of controlling the epidemic, European governments did not require people to wear masks, but stipulated that the safe distance between people was 1 m to 1.5 m. In the eyes of most production line employees, it is too late to control the epidemic and health and safety from next week.
On the other hand, although the employees in the production line have a short-term working system, the decline in wages is inevitable. In enterprises with tight cash flow, it is a realistic expectation to reduce the salary of production line employees by 40%. In contrast, engineers and managers not only have no worries about salary cuts or layoffs, but also their actual workload and performance have been greatly improved during working at home.
According to think tank Jun, Volkswagen Group has sent internal mail for VPN overload during home office. In addition to requiring employees to connect only in audio mode during Skype meetings, it is forbidden to transmit large files through the mail system. In addition, employees are encouraged to go to work during peak hours and the working hours are postponed to 18: 00 to 22: 00, which greatly prolongs the working hours.
"Our problem now is that we are progressing too fast here. If the production department and the brother department have been shut down and can't keep up with the progress, we will soon be able to achieve the goal for the whole year. " An engineer at Audi headquarters told think tank Jun.
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.