With the country continuing to adhere to the policy of expanding domestic demand, further implementing proactive fiscal and monetary policies, striving to expand investment and consumption, and further increasing its support for economic development, it is estimated that in 2002, the growth rate of domestic production in China will be about 7%, the investment in fixed assets in the whole society will increase by about 10%, and the economic growth rate will be about 4 percentage points higher than the global economic growth rate. The sustained and rapid development of national macro-economy will provide a stable operating environment for the development of China's paper industry. According to the above-mentioned main products, papermaking raw materials and paper market trends at home and abroad, we predict the overall situation of domestic paper production and market next year.
1. With the development of domestic economy, the market demand for paper will continue to expand, and the total domestic production will continue to grow, but the total domestic production is still insufficient. The demand for high-quality printing paper and packaging paper is still strong, and the market demand for specialty paper will expand, but there are still gaps in some paper varieties, which will promote the further development of China's paper industry. Especially in the current global economic downturn, China's economy stands out and maintains a high-speed growth, and the total supply of domestic paper production is insufficient, which will surely make China's paper industry a hot spot for investment at home and abroad. In addition, the investment, construction and transformation of papermaking projects have been put into production in recent two years, and the production capacity can ensure the stable growth of the domestic papermaking industry next year. However, due to the influence of international environment and other factors, it is expected that it will be more difficult to maintain substantial growth next year.
2. Due to the expansion of market demand, the increase of domestic total output and the lack of domestic papermaking raw materials, it is expected that the domestic demand for pulp and waste paper will continue to expand and the import volume will increase next year.
According to China's commitment to join the World Trade Organization, China's paper tariff rate will be lowered next year. Coupled with China's huge market potential, foreign products will continue to compete for market space, market competition will be more intense, market prices will fluctuate, and the prices of some products will fall.
Therefore, paper-making enterprises should adapt to market demand, speed up product structure adjustment, develop marketable products, improve product quality and reduce production costs, so as to better participate in market competition and seek development. The following is an analysis of the production and sales of several major products:
1 newsprint
Newsprint is one of the varieties with rapid output growth and improved quality in China in recent years. In the past two years, the major domestic newsprint factories have stepped up their technological transformation, introduced foreign advanced technology and equipment, expanded their production capacity and improved product quality. For example, Fujian Nanzhi/KLOC-0.8 million tons, Qiqihar Paper Factory 200,000 tons, Wuhan Chenming Paper/KLOC-0.5 million tons, Guangzhou Paper Factory/KLOC-0.8 million tons, Shandong Huatai Paper/KLOC-0.6 million tons, Shanghai Pan Asia Potential/KLOC-0.2 million tons. Coupled with the original production capacity and small and medium-sized enterprises that do not produce newsprint, the production of newsprint in China has developed rapidly.
According to statistics, from June to September this year, the output of newsprint has reached 654.38 0.35 million tons, an increase of 6.85% over the same period last year. At the same time, imported newsprint was 6.5438+0.449 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 20.75%. It is estimated that the domestic newsprint output will reach 2 million tons this year, and the consumption will exceed 2.2 million tons. Due to the rapid increase of production capacity, consumption needs to be further improved, and market competition will be further intensified. It is estimated that the domestic output will reach 2.3 million tons and the consumption will exceed 2.4 million tons next year.
According to the statistics of the Press and Publication Administration, the national newspaper printing increased sharply in 200 1 year, with nearly 94 billion copies printed, an increase of1400 million copies over the previous year, an increase of 17.40%, equivalent to 2159,600 tons of paper, which is also a year of rapid growth in recent years.
However, some recent situations should attract the attention of our newsprint manufacturers, that is, due to the continuous weakness of the international economy and the decline of news publishing advertisements worldwide, the market demand for newsprint has declined since last year, and the shipments of major international manufacturers have decreased and the prices have been lower. Since China's anti-dumping measures against newsprint imported from the United States, Canada and South Korea will be implemented in the second half of next year, newsprint production enterprises should study and pay attention to the trend of newsprint.
2. Book paper and letterpress paper
Book paper and letterpress paper are still the main paper for books, textbooks and magazines, and are also the main products of most small and medium-sized paper mills in China. According to relevant statistics, in 20001year, the total number of printed books and periodicals nationwide was 50.6 billion, equivalent to 1 193 1 10,000 tons of paper, an increase of 6.9 1% over the previous year, of which 956,000 tons were used for books and periodicals, an increase of 7.93% over the previous year.
Because domestic book paper production is mostly based on non-wood pulp, some small paper mills are forced to stop production due to environmental problems caused by pulping, which makes the production and sales of medium-sized enterprises grow steadily and the prices are relatively stable. According to the statistics of enterprises above designated size by the National Bureau of Statistics, 855,600 tons of book paper and letterpress paper were completed from June to September this year, up 24.39% year-on-year. According to the market trend this year, it is estimated that 6.5438+0.4 million tons of book paper and letterpress paper will be completed this year, a slight increase over the previous year. It is estimated that the market demand next year will be roughly the same as this year.
3. Coated paper
In recent two years, the production situation of coated paper in China has changed greatly. Two years ago, the domestic coated paper market was dominated by imported products. However, with the successive production of Zhenjiang Jin Dong Paper, Suzhou Zixing Company, Mudanjiang Daewoo Paper, Shandong Quanlin Paper and Marriott Paper, especially after the second phase of Zhenjiang Jin Dong Paper was completed this year and the 300,000-ton coated paper project of Shandong Chenming Paper was put into production, the production capacity of 1 10,000-ton coated paper was formed.
According to statistics, in 200 1 year, 977 1 ,000 tons of coated paper were imported in China, and the domestic output was about 1, 1 ,000 tons, with a total consumption of about 2 million tons. From June to September this year, the import volume was 508,900 tons, down 30.9% from the same period last year. It is estimated that domestic output will drop by 30.9% this year. It is estimated that the domestic output will reach180 ~1900,000 tons next year, and the consumption will reach 2.5 million tons.
Due to the increase of domestic coated paper production capacity and consumption in recent two years, the sales of similar products abroad have increased. In order not to lose the China market, they adopted the way of selling at a low price, which brought harm to the domestic coated paper production enterprises. Therefore, at the beginning of this year, domestic enterprises such as Jin Dong Paper, Shandong Quanlin Paper, Marriott Paper and Shanghai Jiangnan Paper Factory filed anti-dumping lawsuits against similar products from Korea, Japan, the United States, Finland and other countries on behalf of the domestic coated paper industry. The state officially put the case on file for investigation on February 6 this year, and it is expected that the preliminary ruling results will be announced in the near future (MOFTEC issued the preliminary ruling announcement on1October 26). Due to the success of the preliminary ruling, it is expected that the production and sales of coated paper in China will be better next year than this year. In addition, it also shows that enterprises can pay attention to the import and export situation at any time in the future, make full use of WTO rules and protect their own interests. Our association will actively assist enterprises to carry out anti-dumping work. )
4. Whiteboard and cardboard
White board and white board, as high-grade packaging paper, have been favored by paper mills and consumers in recent years, especially coated white board and white board.
In 200 1 year, the national output of whiteboard paper and paperboard was 3 million tons, an increase of 76.5438+0% over the previous year. In the same year, it imported 987,000 tons, and the annual consumption was 3.96 million tons, up by 365,438+03% over the previous year, including 2.5 million tons of coated white board paper and paperboard, up by 25% over the previous year, and the consumption reached 3.37 million tons.
Due to the increasing demand for white cardboard and white cardboard in the domestic market, some domestic production enterprises have also carried out expansion and transformation in the past two years, especially the production capacity of coated white cardboard and white cardboard has increased rapidly. In recent years, Ningbo Zhonghua Paper has 500,000 tons of coated white paperboard and white paperboard production enterprises, Zhuhai Hongta Renheng Paper has 240,000 tons, Shandong Taiyang Paper has 300,000 tons, and Yantai Fosda Paper has 654.38+10,000 tons. Shanghai Kailun Paper Co., Ltd. is 654.38 million tons, and Guangdong Gao Weida Paper Co., Ltd. is 654.38 million tons. In addition, stimulated by market demand, in recent years, a number of coated paperboard production plants have been launched in Fuyang, Zhejiang Province, with a total production capacity of about 1 10,000 tons. Although the technical equipment of the enterprise is not very advanced, the product quality is moderate, the price advantage is obvious, and it has certain competitiveness in the market. At present, the expansion projects of Ningbo Zhonghua Paper and Shandong Sun Paper are also in progress, and the scale is relatively large.
Due to the rapid growth of domestic white cardboard and white cardboard, the import of this variety has decreased in the past two years. According to customs statistics, the import volume in 2000 was 6.5438+0.45 million tons, down 654.38+0.95% from the previous year. In 2006.5438+0, the import volume was 987.000 tons, down 5.56% from the previous year; From June to September this year, the import volume was 7 1.29 million tons, an increase over the previous year. According to the domestic production and import and export situation, it is estimated that the national white board paper and white cardboard will reach 3.3-3.4 million tons this year, and the total consumption will reach 4.2-4.3 million tons. It is expected that the domestic output of this product will increase next year, but the market competition will be more intense.
5. Cowhide Cardboard and Cowhide Cardboard
With the development of China's economy, the domestic demand for cardboard is also growing rapidly. At the same time, China's paperboard production capacity is also developing rapidly. At present, three production bases, namely Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta and North China, have been initially formed. Large enterprises include Dongguan nine dragons paper, Dongguan Paper, Zhongshan United Hongxing Paper, Anhui Paper, Wuxi Rongcheng Paper, Zhejiang Jingxing Paper, Hebei Jiteng Paper and Shandong Sun Paper. Shandong Zibo Paperboard Company, Qingdao Wanghai Paper Company, Shandong Chenming Qihe Paper Company, etc. The development of these enterprises has also met the growth of the demand for cardboard in the domestic market to a certain extent. At present, the domestic market demand, in addition to some high-end products need to rely on imports to solve, a large number of mid-range and some high-end products have been produced in China and can meet the market demand.
According to statistics, in 20001year, the national cardboard output was 4.6 million tons, including 2.2 million tons of kraft paper board and kraft paper board, 863,400 tons of imported kraft paper board and kraft paper board, down 22.67% from the previous year, and the annual cardboard consumption was 5.45 million tons, including 3.06 million tons of kraft paper board and kraft paper board. From June to September this year, 649,000 tons of kraft liner and kraft liner were imported, up 3.08% year-on-year. According to the production and consumption situation, it is estimated that the output of boxboard paper will reach 5 million tons this year. The annual consumption will reach 5.8 million tons, and the output is expected to reach 5.5 million tons next year, and the consumption will exceed 6 million tons.
Because there are many new projects of box board and kraft liner board in recent two years, the production capacity will be further expanded, which may have a negative impact on the market price of box board and kraft liner board in the short term. Relevant papermaking enterprises should do a good job of investigation and prevention in time to avoid vicious competition in the market, and at the same time, they should thoroughly study the changing market demand and accelerate product innovation to meet the changing and growing market demand.
6, corrugated base paper
In recent years, with the development of packaging industry demand and the present situation of domestic corrugated base paper production, the market demand of corrugated base paper is increasing, and the import volume is increasing year by year, especially the domestic supply of high-strength corrugated base paper has been tight.
In 200 1 year, the domestic production of corrugated base paper is 6 million tons, including high-strength corrugated base paper 1.8 million tons. It is estimated that 6.5 million tons of corrugated base paper will be completed in 2002. Among corrugated base paper products, high-strength corrugated base paper has been unable to meet the domestic market demand for many years and needs to be imported in large quantities every year. According to statistics, in 2006, corrugated base paper was imported 1 178700 tons, an increase of 13.49% over the previous year. In 2002, it was imported 1053900 tons from October to September, an increase of 2 1 year-on-year.
Because of the low value and profit of corrugated base paper, many domestic paper mills do not attach importance to the production of this product. In recent years, most enterprises are generally optimistic about products with relatively high added value, such as kraft liner, paperboard and whiteboard, and have expanded and improved their production one after another, thus increasing the gap of corrugated base paper. Now many enterprises are aware of this problem and are trying their best to use existing equipment and domestic and foreign resources to improve the production capacity of corrugated paper, but it will take some time to change this situation. With the development of China's economy and the increase of packaging volume, the market demand for corrugated base paper, especially high-strength corrugated base paper, will be increasing.
8, commercial pulp
China's paper industry is one of the countries that maintain rapid growth in the world. Due to the rapid development and lack of raw materials, there will be a great demand for market pulp in the domestic market for a long time. From 200/kloc-0 to June 2002, the market pulp imported an average of 420,000 tons per month, of which bleached softwood pulp imported an average of about 6.5438+0.5 million tons per month and bleached hardwood pulp imported an average of about 6.5438+0.65 million tons per month. The monthly average import volume in this 18 month is 50% higher than that in 2000. With the continuous development of domestic paper industry, the commissioning of large-scale high-speed paper machines, the upgrading of product structure, and the lag of domestic pulp development, it is expected that market pulp's imports will increase in the next few years. Due to the huge potential of demand for commercial pulp in China market, most pulp suppliers in the world also aim at China market.
However, at present, domestic paper mills have not established long-term and stable contracts in purchasing pulp in the market like international big manufacturers. At present, they mainly buy commercial pulp from the spot, which will easily impact the pulp market price in the international market, and the domestic pulp market will also fluctuate. However, for the production cost of many domestic paper mills, there are many uncertain factors in the market pulp price, which will also bring fluctuations to the finished paper market.
The pulp market fluctuated greatly this year. First, at the beginning of this year, the CIF value of bleached softwood pulp in China reached US$ 360, and the lowest price in European and American markets reached a record low of US$ 380-400. From June 5438 to March this year, merchants mainly from China and South Korea took advantage of low prices to set fires, prompting the international pulp price to rise for five consecutive months 120 USD, reaching 480. The European and American markets reached $500, an increase of 30%. However, after entering September, the market showed a weak wait-and-see situation. 65438+ 10, Russian and South American Chilean manufacturers took the lead in reducing prices, and then North American manufacturers could only follow suit. At present, the market pulp price has almost returned to the price at the beginning of the year.
The reasons for the fluctuation of pulp price in the market are as follows: first, the low price for more than a year has been difficult for manufacturers to maintain; Second, the economy is depressed and the market demand is not strong, so manufacturers can only implement measures to reduce production or stop production to reduce inventory and protect prices. However, the price rose too fast, and the original excess capacity was quickly brought into play, which increased the inventory. This problem can be seen from the monthly inventory changes of pulp producing countries in the five major markets around the world. 10.5 million tons of inventory is recognized by businesses as a regular warning line. In February this year, the pulp stocks of the five major pulp producing countries were 65,438+0,5438+0,865,438+0,200 tons and 65,438+0,865,438+respectively. March 1.695 million tons, April 1.509 million tons, May1.41.20 million tons, June 1.343 million tons and July1.50 million tons. The change of market pulp price brought by the increase or decrease of market pulp inventory this year once again illustrates the influence of inventory on price.
In the first three quarters of this year, China imported 4,077,600 tons of pulp from various markets, a year-on-year increase of 15. 1 1%. Due to the recent price drop, it is expected that the market pulp import will increase in the next few months, and the total annual import volume is expected to be around 5.5 million tons.
9. Waste paper situation
With the improvement of papermaking output and the adjustment of domestic raw material structure, the consumption of waste paper has been increasing. Due to the high content of non-wood fiber in domestic waste paper raw materials, it is difficult to improve the product quality in papermaking production, and the domestic recycling system and classification are not perfect, so China has to import a large number of waste paper with high wood fiber content and good quality for domestic papermaking production.
According to statistics, in 200 1 year, waste paper pulp accounted for 44% of the raw materials in the national paper industry, equivalent to about170,000 tons of waste paper. Among them, 6.42 million tons of various types of waste paper were imported, an increase of 72.9% over the previous year. From June to September this year, 5,443,500 tons of waste paper were imported, up 65.438+08.69% year-on-year. According to this growth rate, it is estimated that the imported waste paper will be around 7 million tons this year, and the demand for imported waste paper will be close to 65.438 million tons in 2003.
In recent years, the amount of waste paper used for trade in the world is about 30 million tons every year. The largest source of waste paper production is the United States, accounting for about 30% of the world trade volume, while about 70% of the total imported waste paper comes from the United States. Therefore, the recycling and transportation of waste paper in the United States will directly affect the domestic waste paper price. This year, due to the impact of waste paper volume and the strike of the West Coast Wharf in the United States, the price of waste paper has risen, and the supply of some waste paper varieties is tight. It is estimated that from the end of this year to the beginning of next year, the price trend of waste paper will fluctuate at medium and high prices. In another case, please note that on May 24th this year, the China administration put forward a sanctions scheme (Article 20 1) to protect the steel trade in the United States. After the World Trade Organization (WTO) makes an investigation and ruling, it will impose a 24% tariff on waste paper from the United States. In view of this situation, the association timely reflected the possible impact of this problem on the domestic paper industry to the relevant state departments, which attracted great attention. Although this decision has not yet been implemented and bilateral negotiations are still in progress, the emergence of this problem has also put forward a problem that needs to be considered for enterprises that rely on imported waste paper production.
The above is some information about the domestic paper industry and my understanding of these problems. Please correct me if there are any shortcomings.