Preface//XIII

The first part of the system 1, system 2// 00 1

Chapter 65438 +0 An angry face and a multiplication problem // 003

Behavior and attention // 004

System 1 is in trouble, and system 2 will come forward to solve it // 008.

Conflict and self-control // 009

Two lines with seemingly unequal lengths // 0 1 1

Two fictional characters // 0 13

Chapter II The Leading Role and Supporting Role of the Film // 0 15

Pupil is a sensitive index of human thinking activity // 0 15

Why can't we see gorillas? // 020

Chapter III Contradiction between Lazy Thinking and Delayed Satisfaction // 023

A tired and hungry bail lawsuit is more likely to reject the bail application // 025

An incorrect answer blurted out // 028

You get $65,438+0,000 today and $65,438+0,000 after 65,438+0 years. Which one do you choose? // 030

Chapter 4 The magical power of Lenovo // 034

Starting effect: pencil that makes people smile unconsciously // 036

How much money will you consciously put into the box? // 038

Chapter 5 Your intuition may be just an illusion // 043

Hallucinations caused by memory // 044

What kind of information is more convincing? // 046

The stock code is catchy and the yield is relatively high // 048.

Innovation takes place in an environment where people can think infinitely // 05 1

Chapter VI Unexpected and understandable // 055

From the first surprise to the second habit // 055

How did Jane lose her wallet? // 058

Chapter 7 Letter "B" and Number "13"//063

What makes you believe those absurd words? // 064

Halo effect and group wisdom // 066

Seeing is believing often leads us to make hasty decisions.

Chapter 8 How exactly do we make a judgment? // 073

Looking at photos to predict the winner of the general election, why can its accuracy be as high as 70%? // 074

Average length and total length are completely different quantitative concepts // 076

Describe the matching strength grade // 077

Divergence of thinking allows us to make intuitive judgments // 078

Chapter 9 The goal problem cannot be separated from the development problem // 08 1

Find a relatively simple question to answer // 08 1

Stereo heuristic: distant objects look taller // 083

Emotional heuristic: I agree because I like it // 086

Part II Heuristic Methods and Prejudice // 089

Chapter 10 Law of Large Numbers and Law of Decimals // 09 1

The error risk of small samples may be as high as 50% // 094.

The universal prejudice of trusting more than questioning // 095

The causal explanation of random events must be wrong // 097

Chapter 1 1 anchoring effect can be seen everywhere in life/101

The adjustment of anchor value is often not enough/102.

Prompt is an anchoring effect/104

As the owner of this house, what is the lowest price you can accept? // 105

When does the anchoring effect apply and when does it not? // 107

Chapter 12 Scientific use of usability heuristic method/111

Being aware of your own prejudice is conducive to harmonious team relations/112.

Prejudice will affect our view of ourselves or others/114.

Chapter 13 anxiety and risk policy design/119

Which accidental death rate is higher, being struck by lightning or food poisoning? // 120

How to prevent small probability risk events from turning into public crises? // 122

Chapter 14 Guess, what's Tom's major? // 127

Predicting based on typicality is subconscious/130.

Two typical crimes/132

Restrict intuition with Bayesian theorem // 134

Chapter 15 Social Impact of Linda Problem

Linda can't be just an ordinary bank teller, can she // 137

The logical paradox that less is more/140

Chapter 16 Causality is better than statistical information/147

The basic proportion of causality and thinking formula // 148

We are not as helpful as we thought/151

Chapter 17 All performance will return to the average/156.

There is no causal relationship between the second performance and the first performance/157

The significance of regression phenomenon is no less than the discovery of gravity/160.

Chapter 18 How to make intuitive prediction more appropriate and effective? // 166

Intuition deviates from the direction of prediction/167

Correct the deviation of intuitive prediction/170

Which of the two professors should I choose? // 172

The third part overconfidence and decision-making mistakes/177

Chapter 19 "Know" illusion/179

The social cost of being wise after the event/182

Is there really a secret that can make an enterprise last forever? // 184

Chapter 20 Unpredictable future/189

Validity illusion of soldiers' evaluation/189

The technical illusion of investing in stocks // 192

Subjective self-confidence and professional culture provide the soil for survival in cognitive illusions/196.

The accuracy of experts' prediction is not as good as that of monkeys throwing darts/197.

Chapter 265438 +0 Intuitive judgment and formula operation, cooked worse than cooked? // 20 1

Expert prediction is not as accurate as simple operation // 202

An algorithm that annoys many people in the industry // 206

"Close your eyes" intuitive judgment is preferable to subjective judgment // 208

Chapter 22 When can I trust an expert's intuition? // 2 1 1

Intuition is in an instant // 2 12

Acquisition of expert intuition // 2 14

Intuition can only be trusted if the environment is regular // 2 16

Intuitive evaluation of right and wrong // 2 19

Chapter 23 Strive to form the decision-making habit of adopting external opinions // 22 1

We prefer internal opinions to external opinions.

Planning fallacy: Overoptimistic plans can be seen everywhere // 225

Effective methods to reduce decision-making mistakes // 226

Chapter 24 Optimism is a double-edged sword // 230

The price of optimism // 230

Neglect of competition: Why are blockbusters released together? // 234

It is you who are too bad, not me who is too clumsy // 236.

Back testing: Some Ways to Overcome Optimistic Prejudice // 238

Part IV Selection and Risk // 24 1

Chapter 25 is about the choice between risk and wealth // 243

Facing risks, we are not rational economic men // 244

What's wrong with Bernoulli's wealth utility theory? // 246

Chapter 26 More Humanized Prospect Theory // 252

In the face of wealth, will you choose to avoid risks or take risks? // 253

Hate loss: the reaction to loss is much greater than the reaction to surplus // 257.

Prospect theory can't cope with disappointment // 260

Chapter 27 Endowment Effect and Market Transaction // 263

Why don't people want to give up what they already have? // 266

Think and trade like a businessman // 27 1

Chapter 28 Reference Point of Economic Transactions-Fairness // 274

The target is the reference point // 276

Why are we unwilling to change the status quo? // 278

Is it fair for businessmen to raise prices or lower employees' wages? // 279

Chapter XXIX The possibility of weighing the results // 283

Possibility effect and certainty effect // 283

Famous economists can't escape the trap of Ales paradox // 285

The decision-making weight depends on people's worries // 287

Quadruple Model: Relationship Model between Possibility and Decision Weight // 289

Risk decision under the influence of possibility effect // 292

Chapter 30 Rare events that have been paid too much attention to // 295

How likely do you think a third-rate team will win the NBA championship? // 296

The stronger the visual sense, the greater the decision-making weight. // 298

Different expressions of risks may lead to completely different decisions // 30 1

Why are rare events ignored? // 303

Chapter 365438 +0 Risk policy that can bring long-term benefits // 307

Wide frame or narrow frame? // 308

Smart investors don't look at stock quotes every day // 309

Risk policy may offset the prejudice of risk aversion // 3 12

Chapter 32 How do psychological accounts affect our choices? // 3 14

Will you sell profitable stocks or losing stocks? // 3 14

Which choice will make you regret more? // 3 18

Make irrational choices for fear of future regrets // 32 1

Chapter 33 Revocation of Evaluation Results // 325

Open cross-border communication between economics and psychology // 326

Comprehensive evaluation leads to preference reversal // 328

Why are the penalties for similar cases different? // 33 1

Chapter 34 Making Good Use of Frame Effect to Make Life Better // 334

The frame effect of emotion is incomparable // 335

Using framework policies to help people make better choices // 338

The fifth part two selves // 345

Chapter 35 Inconsistency between Empirical Utility and Decision Utility // 347

How to measure the effectiveness of the experience? // 348

Memory exaggerates the painful experience // 35 1

Memory is not so reliable // 353

Chapter 36 Life is like a play // 355

We care more about the end of life than the whole life // 355

How much can you remember about your last trip? // 357

Chapter 37 How happy are you? // 360

Measuring the happiness of the experienced self // 36 1

The method of happiness // 364

Chapter 38 Thinking about life // 367

Life Satisfaction: A Difficult Question // 368

Magnified illusion of happiness // 37 1

Never ignore the role of time // 375

Conclusion // 377

Appendix A Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristic Method and Deviation // 387

Appendix B Selection, Value and Framework // 405

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